Major risk assessment links climate change with Germany’s national security
The GeoClimRisk project originates in connection with a related initiative under Germany’s National Security Strategy 2023. Under the Strategy, leading science organisations in-country were tasked with developing a National Interdisciplinaray Climate Risk Assessment (NIKE), which – for the first time – comprehensively assesses the many inter-linked strategic and security risks, both direct and indirect, for Germany arising with climate change and the energy transition. The Assessment was co-authored by GeoClimRisk Project Lead, Fanny Thornton, and was launched at events with Federal Foreign Office State Secretary, Jennifer Morgan, as well as at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025. GeoClimRisk picks up on the Assessment by extending the lens of climate change-related risks and strategic foresight to work with partners in other country contexts.
https://metis.unibw.de/assets/pdf/National_Interdisciplinary_Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf (pdf)
Assessment-Website: https://metis.unibw.de/de/nike/
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-eu-germany-bnd-report-security-global-warming/
Press release by the Federal Foreign Office: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2700056-2700056
DGAP MEMO: Climate Change is Affecting Geopolitics – Not Just the Other Way Around
Together with its project partner, the Center for Foreign Policy (DGAP), the GeoClimRisk project aimed to provide a more comprehensive overview of the factors driving geopolitical shifts.
Until now, the focus has primarily been on the geopolitics of decarbonization—changing energy supplies, new resource dependencies, and mitigation finance. However, equal attention must be given to how the costs and damages of climate change are reshaping geopolitics, particularly through economic decline, uninhabitability, and the uneven distribution of impacts.
