The Climate Change - Migration - Conflict Nexus

Phase 2: B-EPICC (2022-2023)

The project continues to analyse the links between climate change impacts, human mobility and conflict potential in its second phase. New partner case study sites Brazil and Ethiopia are added to this module, with a focus on land and forest change there, and their impact upon migration movements, as well as potential conflict. Training and capacity building, as well as policy tools concerning migration and conflict patterns, will be developed and disseminated with stakeholder involvement.

Core questions which drive the inter-disciplinary climate migration/conflict module in B-EPICC are:

  • Can migration amount to effective climate change adaptation? If so, how and under what circumstances?
  • What is the impact of climate-driven change upon land and forests, as well as their utilisation in livelihoods?
  • How do climate-driven changes upon land and forests affect human mobility? And in turn human security?
  • What is the conflict potential that stems from human mobility linked to climate-driven land and forest change?
  • Which measures and policies affect positive change where climate change factors drive mobility?

Phase 1: EPICC (2018-2021) - Achievements

In the project’s first phase (EPICC, 2018-2021), special attention was paid to the development of ‘climate migration hot spot’ overviews in three selected countries – India, Peru and Tanzania. Extensive engagement with stakeholders in the respective countries facilitated the co-production of knowledge aimed at improving local capacity to respond to human mobility related to natural hazards, not least those arising in the climate change context.

India Focus: Assessing factors that influence whether people stay or go, even where circumstances seemingly match – in Uttarakhand State (Researcher: Ms. Himani Upadhyay)

See, e.g.: Locked Houses, Fallow Lands: Climate Change and Migration in Uttarakhand, India

Peru Focus: Assessing the impacts of migration and immobility in the context of climate change on human well-being (Researcher: Mr. Jonas Bergman)

See, e.g.: Too much, too little water: Addressing climate risks, no-analog threats and migration in Peru and Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in Peru

Tanzania Focus: Predicting migration probabilities in the context of climate change – household characteristics and environmental predictors (Researcher: Ms. Julia Blocher)

See, e.g.: Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in the United Republic of Tanzania

Meta-Analysis: The project reviewed the empirical literature on environmental migration from a methodological point of view. Meta-analytical methods systematically synthesize the evidence from quantitative studies and allow for a unified and comprehensive interpretation of existing findings while statistically controlling for between-study heterogenities. Previous methodological reviews were complemented, adding a distinctive meta-analytical perspective to understand how differences in the data and research design can influence the analysis of internal and international environmental migration worldwide.

See, e.g.: Data for a difficult subject: Climate change and human migration

Contact Persons

Dr. Fanny Thornton

B-EPICC Project Lead


Scientific Advisor

Prof. Dr. Helga Weisz