Publications and Conferences

Below a list of publications and conference presentations connected to the B-EPICC Project


Authors marked in bold are B-EPICC Scientists.

Forests & Biodiversity


  • Binder, L., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C., Lange, S. Šedová B., Tomalka, J. (2023). Climate Risk Profile: Eastern Africa. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.
  • Ludescher, J., Meng, J, Fan, J., Bunde, A., Schellnhuber, H. J., (2023). Very early warning of a moderate-to-strong El Niño in 2023. arXiv preprint. 
  • Liu, T., Chen, D., Yang, L., Meng, J., Wang, Z., Ludescher, J., Fan, J., Yang, S., Chen, D., Kurths, J., Chen, X., Havlin, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2023). Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system. Nature Climate Change 13, 67-74.
  • Raghunathan, M., George, N., Unni, V., Sujith, R., Kurths, J., & Surovyatkina, E. (2022). Seeds of phase transition to thermoacoustic instability. New Journal Of Physics, 24(6), 063008.

  • George, N., Raghunathan, M., Unni, V., Sujith, R., Kurths, J., & Surovyatkina, E. (2022). Preventing a global transition to thermoacoustic instability by targeting local dynamics. Scientific Reports, 12(1).
  • Suchithra K. S.,  Gopalakrishnan E. A., Kurths J., Surovyatkina E. (2022). Emergency rate-driven control for rotor angle instability in power systems. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32 (6), 061102.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen, X., Kurths, J., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2022). Network-based approach and climate change benefits for forecasting the amount of Indian Monsoon rainfall, Journal of Climate, 35(3), 1009-1020.
  • Ludescher, J., Martin, M., Boers, N., Bunde, A., Ciemer, C., Fan, J., Havlin, S., Kretschmer, M., Kurths, J., Runge, J., Stolbova, V. Surovyatkina, E., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021). Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(47).
  • Bunde, A., Ludescher, J., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021). How to determine the statistical significance of trends in seasonal records: Application to Antarctic temperatures. Climate Dynamics.
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E., Krishnan, R., & Kurths, J. (2021, March). Critical transition to monsoon in outgoing long-wave radiation: prediction of the advance of Indian Summer Monsoon. EGU21-6453. EGU General Assembly 2021, online.
  • Ludescher, J., Meng, J. and Fan, J. (2021). Climate network and complexity based El Niño forecast for 2021. arXiv preprint.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., Kurths, J., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021). Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. Physics Reports, 896, pp.1-84.
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Li, X., Liu, W., and Chen, X. (2020). Evolution mechanism of principal modes in climate dynamics. New Journal of Physics22(9), 093077.
  • Gleixner, S., Demissie, T. and Diro, G. (2020). Did ERA5 Improve Temperature and Precipitation Reanalysis over East Africa?. Atmosphere, 11(9), p.996.
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Büntgen, U. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Setting the tree-ring record straight. Climate Dynamics.
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Havlin S. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. arXiv.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Liu, Y., Ali Saberi, A., Kurths, J. and Nagler, J. (2020). Universal Gap Scaling in Percolation, Nature Physics, 1-7.
  • Raghunathan, M., George, N. B., Unni, V., Midhun, P., Reeja, K. and Sujith, R. (2020). Multifractal analysis of flame dynamics during transition to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent combustor. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 888.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen X., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Indian Monsoon Rainfall Amount Forecast: Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits. [online] In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 2374). Abstract. 
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E., Krishnan, R. and Kurths J. (2020). Abrupt transition in organized convection during the monsoon onset in central India and Climate change effect. [online] In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 20285). Abstract.
  • Möller, T. and Gates, L. (2020). Seasonal forecasting and the predictability of the rainy and dry seasons for Peru, Tanzania and India. [online] EGU General Assembly 2020, EGU2020-8355, Abstract. 
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen, X., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. arXiv preprint
  • Meng, J., Fan, J., Ludescher, J., Agarwal, A., Chen, X., Bunde, A., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2019). Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(1), pp.177-183.
  • Manoj, K., Pawar, S., Dange, S., Mondal, S., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Synchronization route to weak chimera in four candle-flame oscillators. Physical Review E, 100(6).
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Two Branches of Indian Summer Monsoon under Climate Change: Dynamics of Outgoing Longwave Radiation. [online] American Geophysical Union, AGU 100, 551213. Abstract.
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., and Havlin, S. (2019). Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (12),476–12,485.
  • Fan, J., Zhou, D., Shekhtman, L., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Marzocchi, W., Ashkenazy, Y. and Havlin, S. (2019). Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Physical Review E, 99(4).
  • Unni, V., Gopalakrishnan, E., Syamkumar, K., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Interplay between random fluctuations and rate dependent phenomena at slow passage to limit-cycle oscillations in a bistable thermoacoustic system. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29(3), p. 031102.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J. and Saberi, A. (2019). Percolation framework of the Earth's topography. Physical Review E, 99(2).
  • Meng, J., Fan, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Bunde, A. and Havlin, S. (2018). Forecasting the magnitude and onset of El Niño based on climate network. New Journal of Physics, 20(4), p.043036. 
  • Ludescher, J., Yuan, N. and Bunde, A. (2018). Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), pp.237-244.
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Havlin, S. & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018). Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(52), pp.E12128-E12134.
Relevant publications from before the start of the EPICC project in 2018:
  • Ludescher, J. , Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M., Bunde, A., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J.(2013). Improved El Nino forecasting by cooperativity detection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(29), pp.11742-11745.
  • Ludescher, J., Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M., Bunde, A., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014). Very early warning of next El Niño. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, p.201323058. 


Hydrology & Water Resources

  • Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-Jácome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Aybar, C. and Bronstert, A. (2022). A novel high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset for Peruvian and Ecuadorian watersheds – development and hydrological evaluation. Journal of Hydrometeorology. p. 309–336
  • Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Vega-Jácome, F. and Bronstert, A. (2020). Towards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru. Hydrological Sciences Journal.
  • Mishra, V., Shah, H., Rivas López, M.R., Lobanova, A. and Krysanova, V. (2020). Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected change of mean and high flow in Godavari River basin?. Climatic Change, 163(3), 1187-1205.
  • Zipper, S., Jaramillo, F., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., Häyhä, T., Crépin, A., Fetzer, I., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Matthews, N., Ricaurte‐Villota, C., Kummu, M., Wada, Y. and Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth's Future, 8(2).
  • Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F. and Felipe-Obando, O. (2019). Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day. Hydrological Sciences Journal, pp.1-16.



  • Jimma, T. B., Chemura, A., Spillane, C., Demissie, T., Abera, W., Ture, K.,Terefe, T., Solomon, D.,  Gleixner, S.  (2024).  Coupled Impacts of Soil Acidification and Climate Change on Future Crop Suitability in Ethiopia" Sustainability 16, no. 4: 1468.
  • Will, M., Backes, A., Campenni, M., Cronk, L., Dressler, G., Gornott, C., Groeneveld, J., Habtemariam, L. T., Kraehnert, K., Kraus, M. (2021). Improving the design of climate insurance: Combining empirical approaches and modelling. Climate and Development, 1–10.
  • Maskell, G. M., Chemura, A., Nguyen, H., Gornott, C., Mondal, P. (2021). Integration of Sentinel optical and radar data for mapping smallholder coffee production systems in Vietnam. Remote Sensing of Environment, 266, 112709.
  • Zarei, A., Chemura, A., Gleixner, S., Hoff, H. (2021). Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania. Ecological Indicators, 125, 107600.

  • Arumugam P., Chemura A., Schauberger B., Gornott C. (2021). Remote Sensing Based Yield Estimation of Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Gradient Boosted Regression in India. Remote Sensing; 13(12):2379.
  • Schauberger, B., Makowski, D., Tamara, B.-A., Julien, B., Ciais, P. (2021).  No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 306, 108453.
  • Chemura, A., Mudereri, B., Wolde, A., Gornott, C. (2021). Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia. Scientific Reports, 11(1).
  • Tarakini, G., Chemura, A., Tarakini, T., Musundire, R. (2021): Drivers of diversity and community structure of bees in an agroecological region of Zimbabwe. Ecology and Evolution, 11(11), 6415–6426.

  • Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Makowski, D. and Gornott, C. (2020). Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors. Scientific Reports, 10(1).
  • Arumugam, P., Chemura, A., Schauberger, B. and Gornott, C. (2020). Near Real-Time Biophysical Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Estimation to Support Crop Insurance Implementation in India. Agronomy, 10(11), p.1674.
  • Dhamija, V., Shukla, R., Gornott, C. and Joshi, P. (2020). Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India. Sustainability, 12(19), p.8256.
  • Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Gleixner, S. and Gornott, C. (2020). Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, 108154.
  • Schauberger, B., Jägermeyr, J. and Gornott C. (2020). A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources. European Journal of Agronomy, 120, 126153.
  • Shukla, R., Agarwal, A., Gornott, C., Sachdeva, K. and Joshi, P. (2019). Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya. Scientific Reports, 9(1).
  • Brüssow, K., Gornott, C., Faße, A. and Grote, U. (2019). The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic Change, 157(3-4), pp.545-563.
  • Graef, F., Mutabazi, K., Sieber, S., Asch, F., Makoko, B., Bonatti, M., Brüntrup, M., Gornott, C., Herrmann, L., Herrmann, R., Kaburire, L., Kahimba, F., Kimaro, A., Kuntosch, A., König, H., Lagwen, P., Lana, M., Lambert, C., Levy, C., Löhr, K., Maeda, C., Mbwana, H., Mchau, D., Mnimbo, M., Munder, S., Mwinuka, L., Ngwenya, P., Nickson, E., Nkonya, E., Saidia, P., Schäfer, M., Schindler, J., Silayo, V., Uckert, G., Wambura, J. and William, L. (2018). Multi-Disciplinary North-South Collaboration in Participatory Action Research on Food Value Chains: a German-Tanzanian Case Study on Perceptions, Experiences and Challenges. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(4), pp.359-378.
  • Lana, M., Vasconcelos, A., Gornott, C., Schaffert, A., Bonatti, M., Volk, J., Graef, F., Kersebaum, K. and Sieber, S. (2017). Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in semi-arid Tanzania?. Food Security, 10(4), pp.897-910.




Cross-Sectoral Capacity Building and International Mainstreaming

  • Becker, M. and Nocke, T. (2021): Lessons learned from the co-production of climate services in India, Tanzania and Peru: climate capacity building the EPICC way, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021.
  • Musundire, R., Ngonyama, D., Chemura, A., Ngadze, R., Jackson, J., Matanda, M., Tarakini, T., Langton, M. and Chiwona-Karltun, L. (2021). Stewardship of Wild and Farmed Edible Insects as Food and Feed in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Perspective. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8.
  • Mudereri, B., Chitata, T., Chemura, A., Makaure, J., Mukanga, C. and Abdel-Rahman, E. (2021). Is the protected area coverage still relevant in protecting the Southern Ground-hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) biological niche in Zimbabwe? Perspectives from ecological predictions. GIScience & Remote Sensing, pp.1-20. 10.1080/15481603.2021.1883947
  • Shukla, R., Gleixner, S., Yalew, A., Schauberger, B., Sietz, D. and Gornott, C. (2021). Dynamic vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in the face of climate change for Ethiopia. Environmental Research Letters. 10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5c
  • Dendorfer, J., Hoffmann, R.,  and Theine, H.: Integrating environmental issues within party manifestos: Exploring trends across European welfare states. (2020). Hvinden, B., Leiren, M. D., Schoyen, M. A. (Eds.), Social Policy and Climate Change: Towards Sustainable Welfare States in Europe, Cheltenham : Edward Elgar. [Book Chapter]
  • Hoffmann, R. (2021). Umwelt, Klima und Bevölkerung. In H. Budliger (Ed.), Demografischer Wandel und Wirtschaft. Berlin: Springer Gabler. pp.131-148
  • Büntgen, U., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Churakova (Sidorova), O., Gennaretti, F., Crivellaro, A., Hughes, M., Kirdyanov, A., Klippel, L., Krusic, P., Linderholm, H., Ljungqvist, F., Ludescher, J., McCormick, M., Myglan, V., Nicolussi, K., Piermattei, A., Oppenheimer, C., Reinig, F., Sigl, M., Vaganov, E. and Esper, J. (2020). Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history. Dendrochronologia, 64, p.125757.
  • Zarei, A., Asadi, E., Ebrahimi, A., Jafari, M., Malekianc, A., Nasrabadi, H. M., Chemura, A. and Maskell, G. M. (2020). Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios. Ecological Indicators, 119, 106858.
  • Vinke, K., Gabrysch, S., Paoletti, E., Rockström, J. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Corona and the Climate: a comparison of two emergencies. Global Sustainability, [online] 3, pp.1-7.
  • Chemura A., Schauberger B. and Gornott C. (2020). Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana. PLoS ONE,15(6): e0229881.
  • Chemura, A., Rwasoka, D., Mutanga, O., Dube, T. and Mushore, T. (2020). The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 18, p.100292.
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Marzocchi, W., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Havlin, S. and Ashkenazy, Y. (2020). Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances. Physical Review Research, 2(1).
  • Schellnhuber, H. and Vinke, K. (2020). Corona und Klima: Auf der Suche nach der verlorenen Zeit. [online] Internationale Politik.
  • Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B., Graedel, T. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability, 3(4), pp.269-276.
  • Bhardwaj, S., Irfan, M. and Muriki, S.K. (2020). Towards a climate resilient city planning. [online] In 6th International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS-6). Poster.
  • Lade, S., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S., Donges, J., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K. and Rockström, J. (2019). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability, 3(2), pp.119-128.
  • Hoff, H., Alrahaife, S., El Hajj, R., Lohr, K., Mengoub, F., Farajalla, N., Fritzsche, K., Jobbins, G., Özerol, G., Schultz, R. and Ulrich, A. (2019). A Nexus Approach for the MENA Region—From Concept to Knowledge to Action. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7.
  • Schmidt-Traub, G., Hoff, H. and Bernlöhr, M. (2019). SDSN Policy Brief: International spillovers and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Measuring how a country’s progress towards the SDGs is affected by actions in other countries. [online] Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
  • Bleischwitz, R., Spataru, C., VanDeveer, S., Obersteiner, M., van der Voet, E., Johnson, C., Andrews-Speed, P., Boersma, T., Hoff, H. and van Vuuren, D. (2018). Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 1(12), pp.737-743.
  • Liu, J., Hull, V., Godfray, H., Tilman, D., Gleick, P., Hoff, H., Pahl-Wostl, C., Xu, Z., Chung, M., Sun, J. and Li, S. (2018). Nexus approaches to global sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1(9), pp.466-476.
  • Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen, X., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2022). Network-Based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall, Journal of Climate, 35(3), 1009-1020.


Here you can find international conferences, where EPICC Scientists participated, held a presentation or presented a poster.


Hydrology and Water Resources



  • 07/2023: ECMN Conference 2023, Vienna: Fanny Thornton held a presentation titled: The multi-dimensional emergence of climate-induced migrants in rights-based litigation in the Global South.
  • 05/2022: Annual Oxford Migration Conference 2022, online: Himani Upadhyay held a presentation titled: Climate change and immobility in highly mobile communities
  • 02/2022 Annual Meeting of American Association of Geographers (AAG) 2022, online: Himani Upadhyay held a presentation titled: "We are still here ": Climate change and immobility in highly mobile communities
  • TBA - International Conference on Adaptive Natural Resource Management for Climate Change Mainstreaming and Environmental Governance at Kumaun University in Nainital (India)
    Himani Upadhyay participates in the conference representing Migration Output of EPICC
    *event postponed due to travel restriction related to COVID-19 outbreak
  • 12/2019 - Salzburg Global Seminar in Salzburg (Austria):
    Mechtild Becker participated in a program on "Education and Workforce Opportunities for Refugees and Migrants"
  • 12/2019 - UN Climate Change Conference COP 25 in Madrid (Spain) 
    EPICC project Lead Dr. Kira Vinke discussed climate change and migration at the Resilience Lab of the UNFCCC Adaptation Programme (09.12.19) and climate capacity building and education at the EU Pavilion (10.12.19)
  • 11/2019  - 6. Tagung der 12. Synode der EKD 2019 in Dresden (Germany)
    Dr. Kira Vinke gave a speech on climate change, security and migration
  • 10/2019 - Dhaka Global Dialogue in Dhaka (Bangladesh)
    Mechtild Becker participated in a panel discussion titled "Climate Security and Migration"
  • 10/2019 - Humanitarian Congress Berlin 2019 in Berlin (Germany)
    Dr. Kira Vinke participated as speaker during the session on Migration and Climate Change hosted by Claudia Roth
  • 09/2019 - The International literature festival in Berlin (Germany):
    Dr. Kira Vinke participated in a panel discussion with the Indian historian Prof. Dipesh Chakrabarty on Decolonization and Climate Change, the connection between colonial interventions and climate change
  • 07/2019 - Royal Geographical Society Annual International Conference in London (UK):
    Himani Upadhyay participated in the event and held a presentation titled: “My home is to stay”, perceptions of climate change and migration from Lakshadweep, India
  • 06/2019 - International Conference and Networking Event on Climate and Environmental Change and Human Mobility in Bonn (Germany)
    Dr. Kira Vinke, Julia Blocher and Mechthild Becker presented a poster on the migration projects at PIK including their work within EPICC
  • 03/2019 - World Water Day 2019 at the University of Hohenheim in Hohenheim (Germany)
    Jonas Bergamann held the presentation: "Migration and Analogues of Climate Change Impacts in Peru: Untangling a Gordian Relationship"
  • 02/2019 - International Dialogue on Migration (IDM) 2019 in New York (USA): 
    Julia Blocher moderated the session: "Addressing specific challenges and vulnerabilities of young people: what role, which partners?"
  • 10-11/2018 - Vatican Youth Symposium 2018 in Vatican (Vatican):
    Julia Blocher participated in the event on Laudato si and climate change organized by Pontifical Academy of Sciences (PAS) in collaboration with the Sustainable Development Solutions Network Youth
  • 09/2018 - Adaptation in Motion - Linking Climate Change, Migration and Resilience in Bonn (Germany):
    Julia Blocher  and Jonas Bergamnn participated in the event. Julia Blocher presented two posters: "Evidence of Erosive Adaptation Communities Among Forest Communities in Central Tanzania" and "Limits to Adaptation through Climate-Induced Relocations"

Capacity Building and Visualization

The EPICC Project