Earth’s freshwater cycle out of stable state
03/04/2024 - Human activity has pushed variation in the planet’s freshwater cycle well outside of its pre-industrial range. An international research team, including scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and PIK Director Johan Rockström, found that the planetary boundary for freshwater was surpassed by the mid-twentieth century.
Read More
“An invaluable contribution to our planet’s welfare”: Johan Rockström awarded Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement
02/29/2024 - Johan Rockström will be awarded with the 2024 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement, a prestigious prize for scientific achievements often regarded as the ’Nobel Prize for Environment’. The scientific Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK receives the honor for his pioneering work on the Planetary Boundaries framework, the science defining the safe operating space for humanity on Earth, which provides the boundaries for world development and a basis for human justice.
Read More
Amazon rainforest at the threshold: loss of forest worsens climate change
02/14/2024 - The Amazon rainforest could approach a tipping point, which could lead to a large-scale collapse with serious implications for the global climate system. A new Nature study by an international research team including scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research (PIK) reveals that up to 47 percent of the Amazonian forest is threatened and identifies climatic and land-use thresholds that should not be breached to keep the Amazon resilient.
Read More
4 of the 10 climate science papers most referred to in news and social media authored by PIK researchers
01/10/2024 - 4 of the top 10 peer-reviewed climate science papers most referred to in news and social media in 2023 featured authors from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), a ranking by the website Carbon Brief based on Altmetric scores reveils. Altmetric tracks how often research papers from academic journals are mentioned in online news media, blogs or on social media platforms. The metric is an indicator for public perception of scientific publications.
Read More
500+ pages, 200+ researchers: Global Tipping Points Report delivers comprehensive assessment of tipping point risks and societal opportunities
12/06/2023 - Tipping points pose some of the biggest risks to our planet’s life-support systems and the stability of our societies. In an unprecedented effort by the scientific community, researchers have now published a comprehensive report on Earth system tipping points and their potential impacts and opportunities for societal change. More than 200 scientists from around the world contributed to the ‘Global Tipping Points Report’. The report with more than 500 pages provides an authoritative guide to the state of knowledge on tipping points, explores opportunities for accelerating much needed transformations, and outlines options for a new governance of tipping point risks and opportunities.
Read More
More interdisciplinary science: Green light for additional institutional funding of PIK
10/19/2023 - From interdisciplinary basic research to scientific policy advice: the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has received the green light from the committee of the Joint Science Conference (Gemeinsame Wissenschaftskonferenz, GWK) of the German federal and state governments for its plans to expand the institute. The additional institutional funding will strengthen its expertise topics by securing investment for three cutting edge and so far little-researched topics. At the same time, the integration of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) will establish a policy research hub at the interface between research and policy from 2025 onward.
Read More
Timely reversal of global warming could prevent Greenland ice sheet tipping
10/18/2023 - The Greenland ice sheet is likely to be more resistant to global warming than previously thought, finds a new study published in the scientific journal Nature. An international team of scientists shows that even if critical temperature thresholds are temporarily crossed by up to 6.5 degrees Celsius until 2100, a possible tipping of the ice sheet and therefore drastic sea level rise over hundreds of thousands of years could be prevented. To achieve this, measures to reduce greenhouse gases would have to be taken as quickly as possible following the critical rise in temperature, so that the temperature can be stabilized at no more than 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the long term.
Read More
A full picture of planetary resilience: All boundaries mapped out, six of nine crossed
09/13/2023 - For the first time, an international team of scientists is able to provide a detailed outline of planetary resilience by mapping out all nine boundary processes that define a safe operating space for humanity. From global warming to the biosphere and deforestation, from pollutants & plastic to nitrogen cycles and freshwater: Six of nine planetary boundaries are being transgressed, while pressure in all those boundary processes is increasing, cutting-edge research published in the journal Science Advances shows.
Read More
Stability inspection for West Antarctica: marine ice sheet not destabilized yet, but possibly on tipping path
09/07/2023 - Antarctica’s vast ice masses seem far away, yet they store enough water to raise global sea levels by several meters. A team of experts from European research institutes has now provided the first systematic stability inspection of the ice sheet’s current state. Their diagnosis: While they found no indication of irreversible, self-reinforcing retreat of the ice sheet in West Antarctica yet, global warming to date could already be enough to trigger the slow but certain loss of ice over the next hundreds to thousands of years.
Read More
Past abrupt changes in North Atlantic Overturning have impacted the climate system across the globe
08/29/2023 - Abrupt climate changes have affected rainfall patterns worldwide in the past, especially in the tropical monsoon region, a new study shows. An international team of scientists used dripstones from globally distributed caves together with model simulations to analyse the global impacts of rapid Northern-Hemisphere temperature increases, the widely studied Dansgaard-Oeschger events, that repeatedly occurred during the last ice age. The comparison of stalagmite and model data shows in unprecedented detail how these abrupt changes and the associated modifications of the Atlantic overturning circulation, AMOC for short, have affected global atmospheric circulation.
Read More
Amazon in the firetrap: Deforestation and warming lock rainforest in dry and damaged grassland state
07/12/2023 - Global warming and drastic deforestation could dry out the Amazon rainforest faster and enforce the risk of keeping it downright fire-trapped. A new study published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment shows: Fire can be a decisive factor for a potential tipping of the Amazon rainforest, as it is capable of locking large parts of the Amazon in a treeless state. While naturally not occurring in rainforests, fire can play an increasing role once the forest is damaged, thinned or completely lost, up to a status where fire is the dominating driver of the ecosystem.
Read More
Greenland’s Ice Sheet might be close to first tipping point
04/05/2023 - The Greenland Ice Sheet is likely to be halfway towards a tipping point whose crossing would imply extensive further melting, a new study finds. While humanity has emitted ca. 500 gigatons of carbon so far, with about 1000 gigatons of carbon much of the massive ice sheet will melt irreversibly, a team of scientists shows.
Read More
Advances, Applications, Perspectives: NDA23 Conference
03/20/2023 - Around 300 scientists from various fields of complex systems science gathered for three days at the Nonlinear Data Analysis and Modeling Conference (NDA) to exchange ideas and knowledge on the latest developments and applications in complex systems science. The conference was organized on the special occasion of the 70th birthday of Jürgen Kurths, former head and currently senior advisor of the Complexity Science research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK.
Read More
Planetary boundaries to help policy assessment in climate crisis
03/17/2023 - The concept of planetary boundaries should be included in the cost-benefit analysis of policy pathways, shows a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change MCC.
Read More
Justice key to live within Earth system boundaries
03/02/2023 - To ensure a safe and just future for people, nature and the planet Earth System Boundaries must include justice. That is the result of a new study investigated by international team of scientists from the Earth Commission, amongst them PIK Director Johan Rockström.
Read More
Amazon heat drives Tibet temperatures: climate tipping elements connected half around the globe
01/26/2023 - While the Amazon rainforest and the Tibetan Plateau sit on different sides of the globe, scientists now discovered that changes in the South American ecosystem can trigger changes in the vicinity of the Himalayas. Both are tipping elements, hence large-scale elements of the planetary machinery that are sensitive to global warming and may shift abruptly and often irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. A new study applies the theory of complex networks to these elements and finds surprising – and worrying – long-distance linkages.
Read More
Excellent research: Doctoral prize for Nico Wunderling
01/23/2023 - PIK researcher Nico Wunderling has been awarded by the German Academic Scholarship Foundation for his groundbreaking dissertation on tipping elements.
Read More
Science takes centre stage in Davos
01/20/2023 - PIK Director Johan Rockström participated in the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) Meeting 2023 in Davos this week. In a first, science took centre stage in a Davos plenary session with Rockström outlining how climate change impacts economies around the world.
Read More
3 out of 10 climate science papers most referred to in news and social media feature PIK authors
01/06/2023 - In a ranking of climate science papers most referred to in news and social media, no less than 3 out of the top 10 papers feature authors from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The ranking is published by the renowned 'Carbon Brief' newsletter and is based on the papers' so-called Altmetric score. While this metric is certainly not perfect, it is a good indicator to help assess public perception of climate science publications.
Read More
Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades
12/22/2022 - Temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements by more than 70 percent compared to keeping global warming in line with the United Nations Paris Agreement range, a new risk analysis study by an international team of researchers shows. This tipping risk increases even if in the longer term the global temperature would stabilize within the Paris range. Avoiding an overshoot would hence limit the risks, the researchers conclude.
Read More
Tipping Points in the Earth System: Potsdam Young Scientist Award for Nico Wunderling
11/25/2022 - Nico Wunderling was awarded the Young Scientist Prize of the state capital Potsdam for his research on tipping points in the Earth system. Mayor Mike Schubert awarded the post-doctoral researcher of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) the prize based on his scientifically and socially relevant work. Wunderling's work on "Nonlinear dynamics and interactions of tipping elements in the Earth system" addresses some of the particularly consequential impacts of human-induced global warming. His findings have been picked up by media around the world - including Guardian, Spiegel and Zeit. Nico Wunderling completed his PhD at the University of Potsdam and at PIK with a position in an international doctoral program and a doctoral fellowship from the German Academic Scholarship Foundation.
Read More
Register now for first Leibniz Network Integrated Earth System Research Conference
10/15/2022 - The first 'Integrated Earth System Research' Conference 2022, organized by the Leibniz Research Network carrying that same name, will take place in Potsdam on November 8th and 9th. Registration will close on 28 October. The meeting is dedicated to scientific advances towards a coherent understanding of the increasing human impacts on the Earth system, their societal consequences, and respective governance challenges. It brings together researchers from the natural, engineering, social sciences and the humanities for targeted dialogue and to intensify research collaboration.
Read More
Risk of passing multiple climate tipping points escalates above 1.5°C global warming
09/09/2022 - Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming. An international research team synthesised evidence for tipping points, their temperature thresholds, timescales, and impacts from a comprehensive review of over 200 papers published since 2008, when climate tipping points were first rigorously defined.
Read More
Less rain in the forest: Amazon even more vulnerable than previously thought
08/02/2022 - For every three trees dying from drought in the Amazon rainforest, a fourth tree – even though not directly affected – will die, too. In simplified terms, that’s what researchers have now found using network analysis to understand the complex workings of one of Earth’s most valuable and biodiverse carbon sinks. The regions most at risk of turning into savannah are located on the forest’s Southern fringes, where continuous clearing for pasture or soy has already been weakening the forest’s resilience for years.
Read More
Considering catastrophe: high-impact, low-probability climate scenarios "dangerously underexplored"
08/02/22 - Researchers call for a new "Climate Endgame" agenda and say far too little work has gone into understanding the mechanisms by which rising temperatures might pose a "catastrophic" risk to society and humanity: For instance if temperature rises are worse than many predict or cause cascades of events we have yet to consider, or indeed both. The world needs to start preparing for the possibility of a "climate endgame", the authors argue in a perspective piece in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS. Assessing catastrophic risks is necessary in order to have a better chance of preventing them.
Read More
Planetary boundaries update: freshwater boundary exceeds safe limits
04/26/2022 - A reassessment of the planetary boundary for freshwater indicates that it has now been transgressed, according to an international team of researchers led by the Stockholm Resilience Centre and including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. This conclusion is due to the inclusion of “green water” – the water available to plants – into the boundary assessment for the first time.
Read More
Amazon rainforest is losing resilience: new evidence from satellite data analysis
03/07/2022 - The Amazon rainforest is likely losing resilience, data analysis from high-resolution satellite images suggests. Resilience loss in pristine parts of the rainforest is mainly due to stress from nearby human activity, such as logging and slash-and-burn. The influence of human-caused climate change is not clearly determinable so far, but will likely matter greatly in the future. For about three quarters of the forest, the ability to recover from perturbation has been decreasing since the early 2000s, which the scientists see as a warning sign. The new evidence is derived from advanced statistical analysis of satellite data of changes in vegetation biomass.
Read More
Potsdam and Exeter agree 'tipping points' partnership
03/03/2022 - The University of Exeter and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have signed an agreement to jointly investigate climate change tipping points.
Read More
Tipping elements can destabilize each other, leading to climate domino effects
06/03/2021 - Under global warming, tipping elements in the Earth system can destabilize each other and eventually lead to climate domino effects. The ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are potential starting points for tipping cascades, a novel network analysis reveals. The Atlantic overturning circulation would then act as a transmitter, and eventually elements like the Amazon rainforest would be impacted. The consequences for people would reach from sea-level rise to biosphere degradation. Interactions in the network can lower the critical temperature thresholds beyond which individual tipping elements begin destabilizing on the long-run, according to the study – the risk already increases significantly for warming of 1.5°C to 2°C, hence within the temperature range of the Paris Agreement.
Read More
Parts of Greenland may be on the verge of tipping: new early-warning signals detected
05/18/2021 - Scientists have detected new early-warning signals indicating that the central-western part of the Greenland Ice Sheet may undergo a critical transition relatively soon. Because of rising temperatures, a new study by researchers from Germany and Norway shows, the destabilization of the ice sheet has begun and the process of melting may escalate already at limited warming levels. A tipping of the ice sheet would substantially increase long-term global sea level rise.
Read More