4C - FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment


What does the model do?

The model 4C has been developed to describe long-term forest behaviour under changing environmental conditions (Bugmann et al., 1998). It describes processes on tree and stand level basing on findings from eco-physiological experiments, long term observations and physiological modelling on a intermediate level of complexity. It is used to analyse forest productivity (13 European tree species), the carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets of forests including soil, to derive reduced models for application in information systems, to analyse adaption of forestry to climate change by management, and to estimate the bioenergy potential from short rotation coppice.

Who maintains it?

Mats Nieberg (formerly Mahnken), Dr. Thirza van Laar, Dr. Felicitas Suckow, Petra Lasch-Born, Dr. Martin Gutsch

What are the next steps in the development of the model architecture?

Implementation of new species according to requirements (e.g. by external users) to enlarge the application regions; implementation of a nonstructural carbohydrate pool; European-wide application on the basis of NFI data.

In what way is the model different from other models in the community?

The model is a member of a model family in Europe, which are used in different regions (PICUS, GOTTILWA, FORCLIM, FINNFOR, FOREST-BGC).These models are well adapted for their specific climatic region and the appropriate tree species (Mediterranean, Alps, Boreal zone) and cover only a part of the above described functionality of 4C. In contrast, 4C allows simulating forests from the Mediterranean to the Boreal regions because of the large set of parameterised tree species and processes. 4C was successful compared with these models in the framework of different projects.

Key publications

Lasch-Born P, Suckow F, Reyer C P O, Gutsch M, Kollas C, Badeck F W, Bugmann H K M, Grote R, Fürstenau C, Lindner M and Schaber J 2020 Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C v2.2 at four European forest sites Geosci. Model Dev. 13 5311-5343. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020

Gutsch, M., Lasch-Born, P., Kollas, C., Suckow, F., and Reyer, C. O. P. (2018): Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change., Environmental Research Letters, 13, 045012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab4e5.

Lasch-Born, P. Suckow, F., Gutsch, M., Reyer, C.O.P:, Hauf, Y., Murawski, A., Pilz, T. (2015): Forests under climate change: potential risks and opportunities. Meteorologische Zeitschrift,24(2), 157-171; DOI:10.1007/s13595-013-0306-8

Reyer, C., Lasch-Born, P., Suckow, F., Gutsch, M., Murawski, A., Pilz, T. (2014): Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide. , Ann. For. Sci. 71(2), 211-22, DOI: 10.1007/s13595-013-0306-8

Lasch P., Badeck FW., Suckow F., Lindner M., Mohr P. (2005): Model-based analysis of management alternatives at stand and regional level in Brandenburg (Germany). For. Ecol. Manage. 207(1-2): 59-74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2004.10.034

Homepage 4C

4C GitLab repository (model code and detailed model description available)

Short model description (pdf)

Model fact sheet 2014 (pdf)