In harmony with the planet: Framework for nine global food system boundaries

At least four of the nine planetary boundaries are most intensely impacted by global food systems. These include: biosphere integrity, land use change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows. In addition, food systems are responsible for the majority of pesticide and anti-microbial use, which are novel entities of high risk to life on Earth. Food systems also contribute to around 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which if unabated could lead to an additional 0.9 degrees of global warming by the end of the century. According to the researchers, this not only endangers the planet’s and human health, but also food production itself. In order to stay on the 1.5 °C path, emissions caused by the food system would have to sink below five gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalents per year.

With the food system boundaries the researchers emphasise that greenhouse gases must be reduced quickly and the conversion of intact nature into agricultural land must be stopped. Almost 40 per cent of the Earth's land area is used for agriculture. As a result, the proportion of intact nature is too low in many regions: around one third of the world's ecosystems are below a critical threshold of 50 per cent intact land area needed to maintain biodiversity and constrain freshwater change. According to the study, the use of fertilisers should be redistributed and the use of pesticides and antibiotics limited. Curbing the expansion of agriculture could contribute positively to protection of biodiversity, carbon sequestration, reduction of emissions and the preservation of biochemical and freshwater flows.

In addition, the research team notes that the economic costs of food systems today outweigh the benefits. Without change, it can be assumed that economic losses and food prices will continue to rise and famines will worsen. According to the researchers, in order to be fully effective, food system boundaries should therefore be aligned with existing global governance measures, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The framework was developed as part of the EAT-Lancet follow-up work and was developed by PIK researchers together with international partners from the Netherlands, Australia, the United Kingdom and Sweden, among others.