In the Anthropocene, with exponential rise in human pressures such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change, there is an increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds and thereby degrading hard-wired biophysical processes that regulate the state of the entire Earth system. Continuing along this trajectory could eventually lead to a shift in Earth system feedbacks, from self-dampening (negative feedbacks) to self-amplifying (positive feedbacks). There is therefore an urgent need for understanding and quantifying the state of the self-regulatory and regenerative capacities of our planetary life-support system, in short Earth system resilience.

This FutureLab aims to develop a framework to characterize the resilience of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, exploring stability landscapes of critical geophysical, ecological and societal components, which are only fragmentarily known so far. This includes the identification of critical conditions and tipping points for these subsystems, their capacity to resist to and recover from disruptions, as well as the risk of cascading interactions between them. The FutureLab is based in Research Department 1 (RD1) on Earth System Analysis with links to the RD1 working groups on Ice Dynamics (ICE) and Whole Earth System Analysis (WhESA), and connects to core activities of other research departments. Several collaborations with RD4 and the FutureLab on Game Theory and Networks of Interacting Agents (GaNe) have already been established within ongoing activities in the COPAN collaboration and the DominoES project.

Internationally, our FutureLab contributes to the work of the Earth Commission and collaborates strongly with the ERC project ERA at the Stockholm Resilience Centre and is embedded in the Earth Resilience and Sustainability Initiative, a joint activity of Princeton University, the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

• Investigation of the role of potentially cascading, interacting tipping dynamics in the Earth's climate system and its human societies.
• Development of a framework to define and characterize Earth system resilience within planetary boundaries.
• Engaging in a community effort towards establishing an operational Earth Resilience Index.

We will combine process-based climate modelling (POEM focus) with integrated World-Earth modelling approaches (copan:CORE focus) as well as methods from complex systems science.

Current members

• Ricarda Winkelmann (FutureLab co-lead, RD1)
• Jonathan F. Donges (FutureLab co-lead, RD1)
  
  
• Torsten Albrecht (PostDoc, RD1)
• Wolfram Barfuss (PostDoc, PIK associated, University of Leeds, UK)
• Ronja Reese (PostDoc, RD1)
• Boris Sakschewski (PostDoc, RD1)
• Nico Wunderling (PostDoc, RD1)
  
  
• Martin Bastian (PhD student, PIK associated)
• Julius Garbe (PhD student, RD1)
• Niklas Kitzmann (PhD student, RD1)
• Ann Kristin Klose (PhD student, RD1)
• Maria Zeitz (PhD student, RD1)
  
  
• Samuel Bien (Bachelor student, RD1)
• Adrian Heilemann (Master student, RD1)

Alumni

• Jan Kohler (former Bachelor student, RD1)
• Jonathan Krönke (former Master student, RD1)
• Jakob Lochner (former Master student, RD1)
• Hannah Mevenkamp (former Bachelor student, RD1)
• Benedikt Stumpf (former Master student, RD1)
• Valentin Wohlfarth (Master student, RD1)

Work in our FutureLab is currently supported by the following third-party funded projects:

• The Earth Commission
• Geo.X Young Academy PhD training programme
• European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth resilience in the Anthropocene)
• Leibniz Association project DominoES (Domino effects in the Earth system - Can Antarctica tip climate policy?)
• Potsdam Graduate School (PoGS)
• German National Academic Foundation (Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes) funding for PhD research on social tipping dynamics in sustainability transformation
• Heinrich Böll Foundation funding for PhD research
• EU H2020 project TiPACCs (Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components)
  
• EU H2020 project TiPES (Tipping points in the Earth system)
• EU H2020 project PROTECT (Projecting Sea Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications)

The following publications are currently under review and discussion:

• J.F. Donges*/J. Lochner*, J. Heitzig, N. Kitzmann, S. Lehmann, M. Wiedermann, J. Vollmer,
  Dose-response function approach for detecting spreading processes in temporal network data: Exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study,
  in review (2021),
  preprint arxiv.org/abs/2103.09496 [physics.soc-ph],
  * shared lead authorship.
• F. Schunck, M. Wiedermann, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A dynamic network model of societal complexity and resilience inspired by Tainter's theory of collapse,
  in review (2021),
  preprint arXiv.org/abs/2102.06698 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
  in press (2020),
  preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• R. Winkelmann*, J.F. Donges*, E.K. Smith*, M. Milkoreit*, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling, T.M. Lenton,
  Social tipping processes for sustainability: an analytical framework,
  in review (2020),
  preprint arXiv:2010.04488 [physics.soc-ph],
  preprint SSRN:3708161,
  * shared lead-authorship.
  
• N. Wunderling, A. Staal, B. Sakschewski, M. Hirota, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges, H.M.J. Barbosa*, R. Winkelmann*,
  Network dynamics of drought-induced tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest,
  in review (2020),
  Preprint Research Square, DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-71039/v1,
  *These authors jointly supervised this study.
• L.A. Tamberg, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems,
  Preprint arXiv:2007.05769 [physics.soc-ph] (2020).
  
• N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R. Winkelmann,
  Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects,
  Earth System Dynamics Discussion, in review (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-18.
• S.H.R. Rosier, R. Reese, J.F. Donges, J. De Rydt, G.H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann,
  The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica,
  in review (2020),
  preprint EarthArXiv. April 15. DOI:10.31223/osf.io/y95r6.
• J. Bak-Coleman, M. Alfano, W. Barfuss, C. Bergstrom, M.A. Centeno, I.D. Couzin, J.F. Donges, M. Galesic, J. Jacquet, A. Kao, A. Gersick, T. Patterson, P. Romanczuk, D.I. Rubenstein, K. Tombak, J.J. Van Bavel, E.U. Weber,
  Stewardship of global collective behavior,
  in review (2020).
• M. Wiedermann, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsandiou, E.K. Smith,
  Can Antarctica tip climate policy?,
  in review (2019),
  preprint arXiv:1911.10063 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• V. Brovkin, E. Brook, J.H. Williams, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton, S. Bathiany, R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-­Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.-­F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderverken, Z. Yu,
  Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in coupled climate-­ecological-­social systems: Lessons for the future,
  in review (2019).
  
• B. Ewers*, J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig, S. Peterson,
  Divestment may burst the carbon bubble if investors' beliefs tip to anticipating strong future climate policy,
  in review,
  preprint arxiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1902.07481,
  * Shared lead-authorship.

In press

• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, S.E. Cornell, S.J. Lade, and M. Schlüter,
  Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops,
  Earth System Dynamics, in press (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27.
  
• N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
  in press, European Physical Journal Special Topics (2020), preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph].
  

2021

• S.H.R. Rosier, R. Reese, J.F. Donges, J. De Rydt, G.H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann,
  The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica,
  The Cryosphere 15, 1501–1516 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021.

2020

• N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
  Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades,
  New Journal of Physics, online first (2020),
  DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a,
  Preprint arXiv:2009.09902 [physics.ao-ph] (2020).
  
• N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann,
  Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice,
  Nature Communications 11, 5177 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3,
  PIK press release.
  
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J.F. Donges, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
  The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet,
  Nature 585, 538–544, (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5.
• M. Wiedermann, E.K. Smith, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping,
  Nature Scientific Reports 10, 11202 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6,
  preprint arXiv:1911.04126 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• A.K. Klose, V. Karle, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate,
  Royal Society Open Science 7, 200599 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
  preprint arXiv:1910.12042 [physics.geo-ph].
• J.-D. Mathias, M. Debeljak, G. Deffuant, A. Diemer, F. Dierickx, J.F. Donges, G. Gladkykh, J. Heitzig, G. Holtz, W. Obergassel, F. Pellaud, A. Sánchez, A. Trajanov, N. Videira,
  Grounding social foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of climate change,
  Earth's Future 8, e2020EF001573 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001573.
  
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, V.V. Vasconcelos, J. Kurths, S.A. Levin,
  Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117, 12915–12922 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117,
  PIK news piece, SRC news piece.
• J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig*, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J.A. Kassel, T. Kittel, J.J. Kolb, T. Kolster, F. Müller-Hansen, I.M. Otto, K.B. Zimmerer, and W. Lucht,
  Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 395–413 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship.
• J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges,
  Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks,
  Physical Review E 101, 042311 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311,
  preprint arXiv:1905.05476 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O.A. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: linking micro- to macro-scales,
  Chaos 30, 043129 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827,
  preprint arXiv:2001.02169 [nlin.AO],
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  AIP Scilight: Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions.
  
• T. Ide, C. Fröhlich, J.F. Donges,
  The Economic, Political, and Social Implications of Environmental Crises,
  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) 101, E364–E367 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0257.1.
• T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner,
  Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk,
  Global Environmental Change, online first (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063.
  
• M. Mahecha, F. Gans, G. Brandt, R. Christiansen, S.E. Cornell, N. Fomferra, G. Kraemer, J. Peters, G. Camps-Valls, J.F. Donges, W. Dorigo, L. Estupinan-Suarez, V. Gutierrez-Velez, M. Gutwin, M. Jung, M. Londono, D. Miralles, P. Papastefanou, M. Reichstein,
  Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 201–234 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-201-2020.
• S.J. Lade, W. Steffen, W. de Vries, S.R. Carpenter, J.F. Donges, D. Gerten, H. Hoff, T. Newbold, K. Richardson, J. Rockström,
  Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions,
  Nature Sustainability 3, 119–128 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4,
  PIK press release, SRC press release.
• I.M. Otto, J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 117, 10631–10632 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002648117.
• I.M. Otto*, J.F. Donges*, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, S. Doe, A. Lenferna, M. McCaffrey, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS), 201900577 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  PIK press release, SRC news, New York Times.

2019

• F.M. Strnad, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig,
  Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies,
  Chaos 29, 123122 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5124673,
  preprint arXiv:1908.05567 [physics.soc-ph] [cs.LG],
  PIK news item.
• K. Kornhuber, D. Coumou, E. Vogel, C. Lesk, J.F. Donges, J. Lehmann, R. Horton,
  Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions,
  Nature Climate Change 10, 48–53 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z,
  PIK press release.

• S.J. Lade, J. Norberg, J.M. Anderies, C. Beer, S.E. Cornell, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, T. Gasser, K. Richardson, J. Rockström, W. Steffen,
  Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change,
  Global Sustainability 2, e21 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.18.

• J. Randers, J. Rockström, P.-E. Stoknes, U. Goluke, D. Collste, S.E. Cornell, and J.F. Donges,
  Achieving the 17 sustainable development goals within 9 planetary boundaries,
  Global Sustainability 2, e24 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.22,
  Preprint: EarthArXiv:10.31223/osf.io/xwevb,
  SRC news item and video.

• I.M. Otto, M. Wiedermann, R. Cremades, J.F. Donges, C. Auer, W. Lucht,
  Human agency in the Anthropocene,
  Ecological Economics 167, 106463 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463.
• Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games,
  Physical Review E 99, 043305 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305,
  PRE editor's choice,
  PIK news release: New method to better understand much-employed self-learning Artificial Intelligence,
  Preprint: arXiv:1809.07225.
  
• C. Ciemer, N. Boers, M. Hirota, J. Kurths, F. Müller-Hansen, R.S. Oliveira, R. Winkelmann,
  Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall,
  Nature Geoscience 12 (2019), 174–179,
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0312-z,
  PIK Press release.

• W. Steffen, J. Rockström, K. Richardson, T.M. Lenton, C. Folke, D. Liverman, C.P. Summerhayes, A.D. Barnosky, S.E. Cornell, M. Crucifix, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, S.J. Lade, M. Scheffer, R. Winkelmann, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 115(33), 8252-8259 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115,
  PIK press release,
  SRC press release.
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S.J. Lade, and J. Kurths,
  When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe,
  Nature Communications 9, 2354 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z,
  Official PIK press release: better safe than sorry,
  Official SRC news release.
• J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges,
  A thought experiment on sustainable management of the Earth system,
  Sustainability 10(6), 1947 (2018),
  DOI: 10.3390/su10061947.
• M. Milkoreit, J. Hodbod, J. Baggio, K. Benessaiah, R. Calderon Contreras, J.F. Donges, J.-D. Mathias, J. Rocha, M. Schoon, and S. Werners,
  Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review,
  Environmental Research Letters 13, 033005 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75.

• F. Müller-Hansen, M. Schlüter, M. Mäs, J.F. Donges, J.J. Kolb, K. Thonicke, and J. Heitzig,
  Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches,
  Earth System Dynamics 8, 977-1007 (2017),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017,
  Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2017, DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-18.

• J.F. Donges*, R. Winkelmann*, W. Lucht, S.E. Cornell, J.G. Dyke, J. Rockström, J. Heitzig, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Closing the loop: reconnecting human dynamics to Earth system science,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(2), 151-157 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019617725537,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre).

• J.F. Donges and W. Barfuss,
  From math to metaphors and back again. Social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective,
  GAIA 26(S1), 182–190 (2017),
  DOI: 10.14512/gaia.26.S1.5.

• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, F. Müller-Hansen, and W. Steffen,
  The Technosphere in Earth system analysis: a coevolutionary perspective,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(1), 23-33 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019616676608,
  Preprint: arxiv:1704.06476 [physics.soc-ph].
• A. Ganopolski, R. Winkelmann, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Critical insolation - CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception,
  Nature 529 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nature16494.