Tipping Point risks

Many different components of the Earth system, including large biomes, circulations in the oceans and atmosphere, the ice sheets and more, hold the potential to tip from one stable state to another. This means that there are strong self-reinforcing feedbacks acting in these systems, which can drive self-sustained change beyond a critical threshold - the tipping point. Crossing the tipping point leads to a new qualitative state of the system, often with reduced resilience to perturbations and recovery. Tipping can have far-reaching and potentially catastrophic impacts on the global climate, ecosystems and humankind, and is happening rather abruptly and irreversibly. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of tipping elements is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of global environmental change. A core pillar of this ERSU theme is the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP), which aims to improve our understanding of tipping points as captured in state-of-the-art models of the Earth system and its components.