Welcome to Elena Surovyatkina’s Monsoon Page!

This web page provides a long-term forecast of the onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) in the central part of India and the Msimu rains in southern Tanzania. The long-term forecast means 40 days in advance for the onset date, and 70 days in advance for the withdrawal date. My approach is based on a teleconnection between Tipping Elements of Monsoon. The forecasts are performed by Elena Surovyatkina.
Welcome to Elena Surovyatkina’s Monsoon Page!

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October 1, 2023

Proof of monsoon withdrawal forecast from Delhi for 2023

I am sharing observational evidence that proves the success of the long-term forecast 40 days in advance of the monsoon withdrawal in Delhi in 2023. The monsoon withdrawal from Delhi on 30 September falls within the forecasted dates of 30 Sep-9 Oct. The map of the Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon 2023 was produced by the Indian Meteorological Department by observation shows the evidence. The red lines on the map show the average date, while the blue lines show the withdrawal of the monsoon from Delhi on 30 September, observed by fact.

The forecast was made by Elena Surovytkina 40 days before the withdrawal of the monsoon. The withdrawal from Delhi on September 30th aligns with the predicted September 30th to October 9th window.

August 20, 2023

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2023 from Delhi, the Central part of India, and Northern Telangana

In 2023 the Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) over Northwest India and Delhi is expected to occur within the timeframe of September 30 to October 9.

The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the Eastern Ghats will likely not be abrupt. Rainfall reduction might begin from the beginning of October, but the last rainfall outbreak might happen between the 7-17 October. In the middle of October, it is also possible that the Winter Monsoon (Northeast Monsoon) may arrive and bring rainfall to the Eastern Ghats until November.

The Southwest Monsoon will withdraw from Northern Telangana in the period from October 10 to 20. Northern Telangana also may also experience rainfall from the Northeast Monsoon.

What caused the Monsoon Break in August 2023?

From April to July 2023, in northwestern India and north Pakistan, colder-than-average surface air temperature anomalies of around 4 °C persist (See Surface air temperature anomaly below). In July, the daily average temperatures in this area were significantly colder, by 4-6 °C less than usual, which is a rare occurrence. Due to this, there were minimal differences in temperatures between the northwestern subtropics near north Pakistan and the tropics in the central part of India. Consequently, the monsoon trough appeared in unstable conditions and was forced to shift, in particular, north of its normal position to the foothills of the Himalayas in the first half of August, resulting in good rainfall in Uttarakhand and the Northeast states of India, but leading to "Break Monsoon" conditions where rainfall activity over the rest of India reduced or ceased.
However, during the latter half of August, the temperature anomalies mentioned earlier decreased slightly. With two months remaining, it is possible that these anomalies may disappear. Therefore, they should not greatly impact the withdrawal of the monsoon in October.

I have postponed my monsoon withdrawal forecast this year due to the unclear trend that persisted two weeks ago. As a result, I issue the forecast from 40 to 50 days in advance of the withdrawal.

Delhi_Monsoon_withdrawal_forecast2023.jpg

 Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  August 17, 2023, for the  Delhi region (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions.   The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) will likely withdraw from Northwest India and Delhi between September 30 and October 9, 2023.

EG_Monsoon_withdrawal_forecast2023.jpg

Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  August  17, 2023, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions. The Southwest Monsoon will likely retreat from the Eastern Ghats region around October 7-17. Moreover, the Winter Monsoon (Northeast Monsoon) may make its way in the middle of October and cause precipitation in the area until November.

Telangana_Monsoon_withdrawal_forecast2023.jpg

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August  17, 2023, for Telangana  (red) and Afghanistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions.  Between October 10 and 20, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to recede from Northern Telangana. During this time, Northern Telangana may also receive rainfall from the Northeast Monsoon.

map_month_anomaly_July2023.jpg

Surface air temperature anomaly for July 2023 relative to the July average for the period 1991-2020. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.  https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2023
Between April and July 2023, there were persistently colder-than-average surface air temperature anomalies of approximately 4°C in northwestern India and north Pakistan, as indicated by the Surface air temperature anomaly map. Please find the map for April 2023 below for comparison. In August, this resulted in unstable conditions of the monsoon trough, which shifted north, causing heavy rain in Uttarakhand and Northeastern India, while the rest of India experienced decreased or no rainfall due to "Break Monsoon" conditions. 

On a final note

As we look at the issue of monsoon withdrawal in India, it becomes clear that accurate forecasting is essential for farmers in the region. My unique monsoon withdrawal forecast (no any another agency provides it due to a lack of methodology) offers valuable insights into this phenomenon, which can be leveraged by the government for strategic planning and disaster response.

With the increasing frequency of severe storms and floods during monsoon withdrawal, it is critical that preventive measures are taken to avoid overfilling and flooding in October. The government should consider integrating the withdrawal forecast into their dam system management to ensure effective resource consolidation and capacity building.

I believe that the use of advanced forecasting methods like this is essential for sustainable development in the face of a changing climate. By providing reliable and timely information, we can empower communities to make informed decisions and build resilience against future challenges.

Forecasts of monsoon onset 2023 verification

I am sharing observational evidence that verifies the long-term forecasts of the monsoon onset in Telangana, Central India, and Delhi in 2023. The monsoon onset occurred on 23 June in Northern Telangana, which falls within the forecasted dates of 19-24 June. In the Eastern Ghats, the onset occurred on 24 June, which is also within the forecasted dates of 15-26 June. This matches the monsoon onset forecast I made on 6 May. You can view the map of the Advance Southwest Monsoon 2023 produced by the Indian Meteorological Department to see the evidence. The red lines on the map show the average date, while the blue lines show the onset of the monsoon observed by fact.

The IMD declared the onset of the monsoon in Delhi on 30 June, but it turned out to be pre-monsoon rainfall. The temperatures in Delhi increased after that, and the real onset of monsoon appeared on 9-10 July 2023. Delhi received an excess of rainfalls, which were devastating due to their intense and extreme nature. I had forecasted the monsoon onset in Delhi on 12 July +/- 4 days, and it appears that my forecast was correct.

onset_SW.jpgProgress of SW Monsoon 2023 by the IMD - India Meteorological Department. The map displays red lines indicating the average date of monsoon onset and blue lines representing the actual onset of the monsoon as observed.
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/monsoon.php

May 8, 2023

Forecast of the Onset dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2023 over the central part of India, Telangana, and Delhi

Every year, the onset of the monsoon poses a puzzle by coming in different ways. However, I expect some good news - pre-monsoon temperatures in the Central, North, and Northwest parts of India might be a bit cooler than in the previous year. However, the advance of the monsoon may not be as organized as desired.
With the purpose of assisting farmers with planning their agriculture cycle, I am conducting a second-year experiment by providing detailed information about the monsoon onset forecast. This includes estimations for intermittent rain periods, dry spells, and the beginning of persistent rains. By knowing where and when the monsoon starts, as well as if there will be a dry spell after the initial rain, farmers can make informed decisions about planting at the appropriate time.

 Delayed Monsoon Onset Forecasts over the Central part of India, North Telangana, and Delhi

According to my analysis, in Central India, pre-monsoon intermittent rains are likely to occur before June 15. Please be aware that a dry spell may be experienced until June 26. Eventually, continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after June 26. My forecasted dates are subject to an uncertainty range of +/- 4 days.  I performed this forecast 40 days in advance.

In North Telangana, the pre-monsoon weather conditions are relatively milder compared to Central India. It's possible to experience occasional pre-monsoon showers before 19th June, but there's a high likelihood of a dry spell between 19th to 24th June. From 24th June onwards, I can anticipate persistent monsoon rains.  Please note that the forecasted dates have a margin of error of +/- 4 days. I made this prediction 40 days ahead of time.

 In the Delhi region, it is possible to experience pre-monsoon rains towards the end of June. However,  the onset of Monsoon rains is expected to be after the 12th of July 2022. There may be some dry spells between the 19th to 27th of July. However, from the 27th of July onwards, the region might experience more persistent monsoon rainfall.  The predicted dates may have a margin of error of +/- 4 days. I made this forecast 60 days in advance.

What are the special conditions for the upcoming monsoon 2023?

 1. During March, a cold anomaly zone developed over Telangana, the Central, and South regions of India, which later shifted to the North in April. This resulted in temperatures being 2° - 8° below average in Central India and 3°-6° in North Pakistan (See figure  'Surface air temperature anomaly for April 2023' below). These below-average temperatures are expected to persist until May and early June, prior to the onset of the monsoon. The Central part, Telangana and Delhi, are experiencing favorable conditions that may delay the onset of the monsoon. 

 2. During the months of March and April, the Southern Indian Ocean had higher air temperatures than usual. Meanwhile, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean was gradually warming up after experiencing below-average La Niña temperatures for almost three years (See figure 'Surface air temperature anomaly for April 2023' below). This warming indicates that there may be a transition to El Niño conditions, which is happening slowly. As a result, in June, when the Indian summer monsoon arrives, the equatorial Pacific Ocean will be in a neutral state, which is unstable. This condition will cause alternating intermittent rains and dry spells before the monsoon settles.

Monsoon onset forecast for Central India,  2023, Elena Surovyatkina

Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  May 3, 2023, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions.  Central India can expect intermittent pre-monsoon rains before June 15. After that, be aware that a dry spell might appear until June 26.  Persistent monsoon rainfalls are expected after the 26th of June.  Please keep in mind that my forecasted dates have a narrow uncertainty range of +/- 4 days.

Monsoon onset forecast for Telangana, 2023, Elena Surovyatkina

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  May 3, 2023, for Telangana  (red) and Afghanistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions. In Northern Telangana, the pre-monsoon weather is more gentle than in Central India. There may be intermittent pre-monsoon showers before June 19th, but a dry period is likely to occur between June 19th and 24th. Starting from June 24th, I expect persistent monsoon rains. It's important to keep in mind that the predicted dates may have a deviation of up to four days.

Monsoon onset forecast for Delhi, 2023, Elena Surovyatkina

 Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  May 3, 2023, for the  Delhi region (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-year average for the same regions. In the Delhi area, pre-monsoon rains can be expected towards the end of June, while  I predict the onset of monsoon rains to occur after July 12th, 2022. There may be occasional dry periods between July 19th and 27th, but from August 27th onwards, the region is likely to experience more consistent monsoon rainfall. Notably, the predicted dates may have a margin of error of +/- 4 days.

Surface air temperature anomaly for April 2023, Monsoon onset forecast, Elena Surovyatkina

Surface air temperature anomaly for April 2023 relative to the April average for the period 1991-2020. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.  https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2023 
Please take note of the cold anomaly zone (showing below-average temperatures) present over India and the warm anomaly (featuring above-average temperatures) observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These factors, along with others, may influence the monsoon season's delay.

 

August 9, 2022

Forecast of the Withdrawal dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2022 over the central part of India, Telangana, and Delhi

The challenging summer monsoon season-2022 in Delhi is not going to improve. The alternation of a dry spell and intermittent rainfalls in Delhi will likely stand until October 6, and then the monsoon season in Delhi will be over.

In 2022 the Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) over the Eastern Ghats will likely not be sharp. Rainfall reduction begins on October 4, but isolated rains are very likely until October 13. However, in the period 14-18 October, Winter Monsoon (Northeast Monsoon) will reach the Eastern Ghats and brings rainfall again that might continue until October 23 and even longer until November 1.

The Southwest Monsoon will withdraw from Northern Telangana 2-3 days later than the Eastern Ghats. Northern Telangana also will similarly receive the Northeast Monsoon rainfall.

Delhi monsoon withdrawal forecast 2022, Elena Surovyatkina, India, PIK

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 6, 2022, for Delhi (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5 years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from the 1st to the 6 of October 2022. 

Central India monsoon withdrawal forecast 2022, Elena Surovyatkina, India, PIK

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 6, 2022, for Central India (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from the 4th to the 12th of October 2022. 

Telangana monsoon withdrawal forecast 2022, Elena Surovyatkina, India, PIK

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 6, 2022, for Telangana  (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5 years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from the 6th to the 14th of October 2022. 

Forecasts of monsoon onset verification

Here, I present the evidence from observations for verifying long-term forecasts of monsoon onset in central India and Telangana in 2022. According to the IMD, the monsoon onset occurred over Northern Telangana and the Eastern Ghats between June 13th and 16th; see map below. That entirely agrees with my forecast for June 14-15. Moreover, a dry spell appeared before beginning continuous rainfall, which started on June 26. Hence, my predictions made 35 days in advance appear to be accurate.

Elena Surovyatkina, Correct monsoon onset forecast over Central India, 2022

 I have predicted the long-delayed monsoon in Delhi on July 10 with an extended dry period before onset. According to the IMD, the monsoon onset occurred over Delhi on June 30. However, the temperature plot above shows that it was bogus onset because, after June 30, the temperature rose again, but after July 10 temperature gradually decreased to monsoon temperature. Moreover, I predicted a dry spell around August 14 that is currently developing in Delhi. Hence, all three predictions regarding Delhi made 60 days in advance appear to be correct.

Why is the Southwest Monsoon 2022 in India so challenging?

While during a heatwave from mid-month onward, numerous July records for maximum temperature were broken in Europe, with temperatures 40°C, the regions bordering the western Indian Ocean, from the Horn of Africa in the west, to southern India in the east, showed below-average temperatures, which saw much above average precipitation. The map shows a cooler than average temperature in blue and warmer in red.
High-temperature anomalies dramatically impact the Indian summer monsoon. While Southern Peninsula, Central, and West India kept the monsoon rain in the vigorous stage, North West and North East India struggled to record good rains without success. The temperature anomaly map in India explains India's tilted separation into wet (blue color) and dry (red color) parts. Two extremes are seen clearly on the map.

Surface air temperature anomaly 2022 Copernicus, Elena Surovyatkina, monsoon forecast, India

Surface air temperature anomaly for July 2022 relative to the July average for the period 1991-2020. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF. https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2022

May 10, 2022

Forecast of the Onset dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2022 over the central part of India, Telangana, and Delhi

Here, I present an experimental forecast for the transition to the Indian summer monsoon in three regions: Central India, Telangana, and Delhi. This year, I expanded my forecast of monsoon onset day with intermittent rains period and dry spells estimations. My purpose is to help farmers to plan the sowing/planting season. Knowing where and when the monsoon begins and whether or not the rain cessation appears could help farmers choose the right crops and the right time for planting.

The long-term forecast of monsoon onset over the central part of India

The transition to the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E), is likely, to begin with, intermittent rains between 14-18 June. It is highly likely that a dry spell will occur in the period 19-26 June. After 26 June, continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected. The uncertainty of the forecasted dates is +/- 4 days.
The region of our forecast is in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, the western part of Chhattisgarh state, and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

Monsoon onset forecast for central India 2022, dry spell forecast

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon onset day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  May 8, 2022, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted onset dates are from the 14th to the 19th of June, 2022, a dry spell is possible between the 19th and the 26th of June. Continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after the 26th of June. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated once a week. Follow our updates.

The long-term forecast of monsoon onset over Northern Telangana, India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to reach  Northern Telangana (17.5°N,80°E) from 15 June. The intermittent rains may appear in the period 14 -20 June. With high probability, a dry spell occurs between 20-29 June. The continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after 29 June. The uncertainty of the forecasted dates is +/- 4 days.

Monsoon onset forecast for Telangana, India 2022, dry spell forecast

 Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  May 8, 2022, for the Northern Telangana (red) and Afghanistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted onset dates are from the 15th to the 20th of June, 2022, a dry spell is possible between the 20th and the 29th of June. Continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after the 29th of June. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated once a week. Follow our updates.

The long-term forecast of monsoon onset over Delhi, India 

The Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach the Delhi region (27.5°N,77.5°E) after 10 July 2022. Intermittent rains and short dry spells are possible till 29 July. A longer dry spell could likely occur between 29 July and 14 August. After 14 August, more persistent monsoon rainfalls are possible over the region. The uncertainty of the forecasted dates is +/- 4 days.

Monsoon onset forecast for Delhi 2022, dry spell forecast

 Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  May 8, 2022, for the Delhi region (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past the 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted onset dates are from the 10th of July, 2022, a dry spell is possible between the 29th of July and the 14th of August. Continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after the 14h of August. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated once a week. Follow our updates.

August 24, 2021

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2021 from Delhi, the Central part of India, and  Northern Telangana

The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely to withdraw from Delhi between the 13th  and  23rd of September and then from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) between the 30th of September and 10th of October 2021 and 2 days later from Northern Telangana. That is around five days earlier than the normal dates. However, it is highly likely that after the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon and a few dry days,  the Northeast Monsoon begins in the middle of October. 

In the last decade, Northeast Monsoon starts closer to the end of October and pours over southeast peninsular India and parts of Sri Lanka. In 2020 earlier start of the Northeast Monsoon in the middle of October happened with unexpected penetration to the central part of India, leading to strong precipitation over the region until the end of October 2020. 

The cause for such a predicted scenario is low temperatures (about 3- 4°C lower than average) in northern Pakistan, northern and central India. A similar situation occurred last year, in 2020, and led to rapid cooling in October from Northwest to Southeast. Thus, when the Indian subcontinent gets colder faster, it attracts Northeast wind earlier.

In India, October is the harvesting season due to the end of the monsoon season. The most important message for farmers is that October 2021 might be rainy, with a short dry spell between summer and winter monsoons. In such a circumstance, it would be better to be prepared for a scenario similar to October 2020. 

Forecast of the Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2021 for Delhi by Elena Surovyatkina

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 14, 2021, for Delhi (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates were from the 13th to the 23rd of September 2021. The real onset date was on the 13ht of July that is in agreement with my forecast from the 8th of May 2021(see below). 
 
Forecast of the Withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon 2021 in Central India by Elena Surovyatkina
 
Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 14, 2021, for Central India (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates were from the 31st of September to the 10th of October 2021. The real onset date was on the 29ht of June that is in agreement with my forecast from the 8th of May 2021(see below). 
 
Forecast of the Withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon in 2021 from Northern Telangana by Elena Surovyatkina
 
Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 14, 2021, for Telangana (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates were from the 2nd to the 12th of October 2021. The real onset date was on the 24ht of June that is in agreement with my forecast from the 8th of May 2021(see below). 

Successful prediction of monsoon onset 2021

The Indian Summer Monsoon began in Northern Telangana on the 24th of June and then neared the Eastern Ghats on the 29 of June. After that, a dry spell appeared and lasted until 10 July.
My onset dates are distinct from the IMD dates due to different definitions of onset. While the IMD declares onset after 48-hours of continuous rainfall, I define a monsoon onset by critical temperature (Tc) and relative humidity (RHc).
According to the IMD, the monsoon onset occurred over Northern Telangana and the Eastern Ghats between June 11th and 17th. However, according to my prediction, the premature isolated rainfall appeared within this period on June 12 -19. I explicitly specified this period as premature isolated rainfall because my monsoon onset conditions have not been fulfilled. It turned out to be correct because, in the period 19 June -11 July, stagnation in monsoon advance appeared. Hence, my predictions for Northern Telangana and Central India were accurate.

For the first time, I issued the long-term forecast for the Delhi region, where the monsoon forecast has never been made. According to my prediction, the monsoon will begin in Delhi with a significant delay, namely after July 11. Monsoon has reached Delhi on July 13. Thus, my long-term prediction made 63 days in advance was correct.

The evidence from observational data sees in the figures above. 

Monsoon onset 2021 forecast was published in Indian newspapers DownToEarth,  HindustanTimes, Indian portal Weather&Radar India, and PIK-News.

See evidence of summer monsoon onset factual appearance in 2021 in Indian newspapers: DownToEarth, DownToEarth, DownToEarth.

May 8, 2021

Forecast of the Onset dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2021 over the central part of India, Telangana, and Delhi

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E), on the last week of June, between 21 and 29 June 2021. Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall may appear in period 14 -17 June. The continuous monsoon rainfall is expected to start from June 29.

The region of our forecast is in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state, and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

Monsoon Onset Forecast for Central India, 2021,  Elena Surovyatkina

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over Northern Telangana (17.5°N,80°E) between June 24 and July 2, 2021. Premature isolated rainfall may appear in the period 12 -19 June. The continuous monsoon rainfall is expected after July 2.

The forecast area is in the Telangana state (17.5°N, 80°E), namely towards the East of Hyderabad, south-east of Warangal, west of the Godavari river and north of Khammam.

Monsoon Onset Forecast for Telangana, India 2021,  Elena Surovyatkina

Delhi has to wait for longer for the arrival of the monsoon

The Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach the Delhi region (27.5°N,77.5°E) during 11-19 July 2021. Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall are possible two weeks before monsoon arrival between June 28 and July 5 with a succeeding dry spell. After July 19, continuous monsoon rainfall is expected over the region.

Monsoon Onset Forecast for Delhi , India, 2021,  Elena Surovyatkina

Why is monsoon onset delayed this year?

During April 2021, the anticyclones over western Siberia were dominant, resulting in higher than average temperatures for the period 1991-2020. Outbreaks of polar air westward from this high-pressure area caused the negative temperature anomaly in the large area from Iceland to the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Air temperatures were below average over eastern Siberia, China, and most tropical and sub-tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. Specifically, in northern Pakistan, northern and central India were about 3- 4°C lower than average. I expect that this temperature tendency will remain during the beginning of the monsoon. If so, it disorganizes the onset of monsoon, alternating premature rainfall and dry spells leading to the transition to monsoon longer and delayed monsoon onset.

 Surface air temperature anomaly for April 2021

April 28, 2021

Msimu rains to retreat from southern Tanzania by the second week of May

The rainfall season in southern Tanzania is coming to an end. Continues rainfall expected until the 5th of May, a sharp decline in rain activity can be expected on the second week of May. The region of the forecast is South Tanzania (10°S, 35°E), namely towards the South of Mbeya, Lake Malawi, and Songea regions.

in the Swahili language by Emanuel, Jacob (ICRISAT-Tanzania):

Mwua za Msimu Kusini mwa Tanzania kufikia mwisho wiki ya pili ya Mwezi Mei

Msimu wa mvua kusini mwa Tanzania unaelekea mwisho. Mvua zinazoendelea zinatarajiwa kufikia mwisho tarehe 5 Mei, huku kukoma kabisa kwa mvua kunatarajiwa wiki ya pili ya mwezi Mei. Utabiri huu unajumuisha maeneo ya kusini mwa Tanzania ( Nyuzi 10 Kusini, 35 Mashariki) yaani maeneo ya kusini mwa mkoa wa Mbeya, ziwa Malawi, na mkoa wa Songea.

Msimu rains retreat 2021 Africa Tanzania Monsoon

The PIK- monsoon/rainfall season monitor shows how far away we are from the beginning of the rainy season. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  April 25, 2021, for South Tanzania (green) and South Africa (blue).  Grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The wet season to retreat between 5-10 May, 2021. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated weekly. Follow our updates.

Msimu rains retreat 2021 Africa monsoon Tanzania

Daily mean Relative Humidity till  April  25, 2021, for South Tanzania (green) and South Africa (blue).  Grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. Relative Humidity increase in Tanzania  (green) shows the wet season's beginning.

March 26, 2021

The last five years:  summary of Indian summer monsoon forecasts (2016-2020)

Here, I  present the evidence from observations on long-term forecasts of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates in central India for five years, 2016-2020 (Fig. 1). The forecast is based on teleconnection between the two Tipping elements of the Indian summer monsoon - the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP).

The region of the forecasts locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG): namely in the south-eastern part of Maharashtra state and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state. It is an area around the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by a square of 2.5°x2.5° (with an area of approximately 77000 km²). North Pakistan area, namely in North Punjab, where monsoon season ceases to exist, is used for performing forecasts for the EG.

The long-term forecast means 40 days in advance for the onset date, and 70 days in advance for the withdrawal date thus offering the earliest prediction of monsoon timing and the only available withdrawal date in India.

The forecast relays on temperature and relative humidity (from NCEP/NCAR re-analyses data set) in two regions (EG and NP). Figure 1 shows the daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity for each year for EG and NP  (presented by red and blue respectively; the past five years' average values for the same regions are presented by violet and grey).  The grey vertical dashed lines show real onset and withdrawal dates, which bound the monsoon duration indicated by the light blue transparent rectangle.

As it is clear from Figure 1, the onset day appears when a falling temperature in EG intersects with a rising NP temperature. That happens simultaneously with the exponential growth of relative humidity in EG. Subsequently, the withdrawal day occurs when the temperature in NP crosses the monsoon temperature in EG. It concurs with the drop of relative humidity in EG. It is important to clarify that during monsoon season in EG, relative humidity holds above 80%. In 2019 and 2020, it was an anomaly when the tail of relative humidity after the monsoon appeared due to the winter monsoon's short time penetration to central India. Hence, the relative humidity data presented in the figures verify that onset and withdrawal dates match the rainy season's duration. Thus, the features described above completely confirm our conditions of onset and withdrawal date in Stolbova V. et.al, 2016.

Forecasts of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates in central India for five years 2016-2020

Fig. 1. Evidence from observations on forecasts of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates in central India for five years 2016-2020. The forecast region is the Eastern Ghats (EG), North Pakistan (NP) is used for performing forecast for the EG, shown by the red and blue rectangle in map B). The annual cycles of air temperature and relative humidity for each year for EG (red) and NP (blue) are shown in A, C-F. The light blue transparent rectangle indicates the actual duration of monsoon season in EG.

Table 1 shows the comparison of forecasted dates of onset and withdrawal of the upcoming monsoon with observational dates of real monsoon timing presented in Fig.1. It is clearly seen that from 2016 through 2020, the actual dates of monsoon onset and withdrawal lie in the frame of the forecasting period. Such, the presented observations for all five years follow the forecasts.

It is essential to highlight a considerable interannual variability: for onset date - from 9 to 26 of July, and for withdrawal date - from 3 to 26 of October. Such variability is impossible to capture by numerical simulation. It poses significant challenges for forecasting monsoon timing for meteorological services. However, the Tipping elements approach allows us to perform the long-term forecasts: 40 days in advance for the onset date and 70 days in advance for the withdrawal date.

the comparison of forecasted dates of onset and withdrawal of the upcoming Indian summer monsoon with observational dates of real monsoon timing

Table 1.  The verification of forecasted dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon with observational dates from NCEP/NCAR re-analyses data set.

Every forecast was published on the PIK Monsoon web page (see below), PIK-News, in Indian newspapers and other: PIK News (20.04.16),  PIK news (27.07.16),  PIK news (14.11.16),  PIK news (05.08.17)PIK news (18.10.17),  PIK news (07.05.18), Sakal Times (15.05.18),  Hindustan Times (15.05.2018)The Hindu (20.06.18)Telangana Today (10.06.2018), odishatv.in (31.08.19), DownToEarth (20.09.19), The Wire (30.10.2019), The Hindu Business Line (19.09.19), HindustanTimes (07.06.2019), Der Tagesspiegel (21.07.19), Deutsches Klimaportal (26.06.19), TheWeatherChannel (20.09.2019), pressreader (19.09.19), Telangana Today (07.05.19), PIK-News (12.05.20), DownToEarth (01.09.20), DownToEarth(20.09.20), DownToEarth(28.09.20), TheHindu (14.05.2020), Research in Germany (13.05.20), PIK-News (21.09.20).

Recently, I have been informed by the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in Delhi that they performed the examination of onset and withdrawal dates of our forecasts for 20 years (2008-2018) l on Indian reanalysis data sets, and found that our forecasting scheme works well. In 2021, I will use Indian reanalysis data sets. I am very grateful to my colleagues from the NCMRWF for providing me with OLR data for the next forecast. 

I am happy to collaborate with my colleagues from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorologythe India Meteorological Department, and the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.  We are working together to improve the monsoon forecast, deliver an accurate forecast of onset and withdrawal more than one month in advance, and make India more climate-resilient.

December 21, 2020

Successful prediction of rainfall season 2020 in southern Tanzania

The rainfall season in southern Tanzania was late and began after the 10th of December 2020; continuous rainfalls are expected after the 31st of December. On the initial phase, isolated rains alternated with periods of dry spells, as I predicted on the 20th of October, 2020.

Msimu ('seasonal' in the Swahili language) rains in Southern Tanzania start in November and end between April and May of the following year. The words' Msimu' and 'Monsoon' are derived from the Arabic word (/mɒnˈsuːn/).

Because it started late than usual, it wasn't well-organized onset. Slowly but inevitably, Msimu rainfalls are advancing further to the south over South Africa, becoming more intensive and sustainable.

The delayed onset of the Msimu rains shortens the agricultural season and diminishes cereal production prospects. The delay in agricultural activities affects income-earning opportunities for farmers. Thus, the long-term prediction of the timing of the rainy season is desperately needed.

 The evidence from observational data

Southern Tanzania, African Monsoon

The PIK- monsoon/rainfall season monitor shows how far away we are from the beginning of the rainy season. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  December 18, 2020, for South Tanzania (green) and South Africa (blue).  Grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The wet season began after 10 of December 2020 with sporadic rainfall and dry spell in between. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated weekly. Follow our updates.

Daily Relative Humidity 18.12. 2020 in Southern Tanzania, African monsoon onset

Daily mean Relative Humidity till  December 18, 2020, for South Tanzania (green) and South Africa (blue).  Grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. Relative Humidity increase in Tanzania  (green) shows the wet season's beginning.

From pre-monsoon to monsoon Tanzania, African monsoon 2020

Delayed Msimu rainfalls in Southern Tanzania. Daily Relative Humidity and Wind maps using the NCEP/NCAR data at 111 m/1000hPa. Rain area with high humidity is shown by blue color, dry area with low humidity – by brawn color. 

October 21, 2020

A rainfall season is expected to start late than usual in southern Tanzania in Africa 

The first long-term forecast for Africa. The rainfall season in southern Tanzania will likely begin after the 10 of December 2020. Isolated rainfall and dry spells are expected between the 10th to the 31st of December. Continuous rainfall is expected after the 31st of December. The region of the forecast is South Tanzania (10°S, 35°E), namely towards the South of Mbeya, Lake Malawi, and Songea regions. Elena Surovyatkina and Nitin Babu performed the first long-term forecast for Africa on the 20th of October, 40 days in advance of the rainfall season.

A study on rainfall season in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania - the grain basket of Tanzania, is part of the EPICC project. The rainy season in this region starts at the end of November and lasts until April. Tanzania's economy depends heavily on agriculture, and the livelihood of the Tanzanian farmer largely depends on the rains. Our monsoon research group offers a unique methodology to identify tipping elements in climate variables, which allows a long-term prediction of the rainy season's timing. A long-term forecast means 40 days in advance for the start of the rainy season and 70 days in advance for its end. Such long-term forecasts aid agriculture planning in consolidating resources and strengthening capacity to respond effectively to disasters such as floods and droughts.

The monsoon/ rainfall season forecast in southern Tanzania by Elena Surovyatkina PIK

The PIK- monsoon/rainfall season monitor shows how far away we are from the beginning of the rainy season. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  October 19, 2020, for South Tanzania (green) and South Africa (blue).  Grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The wet season begins after 10 of December 2020 with sporadic rainfall and dry spell in between until 31st of December, afterwards, continuous rainfalls are expected. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated weekly. Follow our updates.

 

November 1, 2020

Successful prediction of monsoon withdrawal 2020

The Southwest monsoon withdrew from Central India on the 13th of October. After that, as I predicted on the 14th of August, 2020, other post-monsoon isolated rainfalls appeared in some parts of central & northwest India.

 The evidence from observational data

Daily mean near-surface air temperature in two tipping Elements: Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP), began to converge at the 28th of September when the IMD declared the beginning of monsoon withdrawal from Northwest India. Climatologically, it takes 23 days for the withdrawal of the monsoon to move from NP to the EG. In 2020, within 15 days, almost the Northern part of India (excluding Bangladesh and the neighborhood) showed an abrupt decrease in precipitation. It happens quickly because the difference in the temperatures in the EG and NP was 4°C lower than average.  As I predicted, it took less time when the temperature in North Pakistan reaches the temperature level in the EG. On the 14th of October temperature in North Pakistan departed from Monsoon temperature. Since then shows a persistently cooling trend. Since the temperature gradient has disappeared, there are no conditions for monsoon any longer.

Monsoon withdrawal result 2020 by Elena Surovyatkina

Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  October 29, 2020, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates were from 3rd to 13th of October 2020. The real onset date was on the 26ht of June, the real withdrawal date was on the 13th of October.

The data of daily accumulated rainfall provided by the IMD (see Figure below)  shows how the area with zero mm precipitation on the 4th of October, spread from Northern to Central India and reached the area of forecast on the 13th of October. After that, mostly in the Southern part of India, the precipitation increased, but in the Northern part, only some isolated rains appeared.

Accumulated rainfall India October 2020 Monsoon forecast

 The daily accumulated rainfall provided by the IMD, https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/all_india_forcast_bulletin.php  . The black number shows only 0 mm precipitation, the red number - more than 0 mm. An oval shows the area with zero mm precipitation during withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon; a rectangle shows the area of the forecast. First row: on the 4th and the 6th of October, the area from Northwest to South India and Sri Lanka exhibits zero-mm precipitation, then on the 13th and the 14th  of October, a dry area in Northern part extended significantly. Second row: post-monsoon rains fall mainly south of the forecast area.

After the 14th of October, the smooth withdrawal of monsoon was interrupted by large scale wind pattern which appeared as a result of the seasonal reverse of winds over East Asia and the Pacific Ocean (See Figure below). The Figure shows the wind direction and the speed for the period between the 7th and the 20th of October. On the 7th of October, it shows the Northeast wind pattern along the coast of East Asia, which cross South Asia and penetrates to the Bay of Bengal. It caused rainfall over South part of India and Bangladesh with the neighbourhood (See Figure with Accumulated Rainfall from 16 to 22, October). Notably, that during this period the Southwest monsoon wind, being below 10°N, could not contribute to the precipitation. The invasion from the Northeast was continued for almost three weeks, with 3 days break, and it is still continuing on the 1st of November.

Northeast wind India October 2020

 The invasion from the Northeast. Wind direction and the speed for the period between the 7th and the 20th of October. "Warm" colours orange and like red indicate higher wind speeds. Northeast wind pattern originates from East Asia due to the seasonal reverse of winds. The season in East Asia changes, the wind changes direction from the Pacific Ocean to land. Northeast wind going along the coast and then cross South Asia and penetrates to the Bay of Bengal.  It produces circulation over the Bay of Bengal and brings precipitation to South India (below 20 N). Southwest Monsoon is below Indian Subcontinent.

Meanwhile, on the 28th of October 2020, the IMD declared the Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the entire country and simultaneous commencement of the Northeast Monsoon rains over extreme south peninsular India. According to the IMD, the Southwest monsoon withdrew from the Northwest (around 23 N) to the South (from the entire country) in 3 days (i.e. from 25 to the 28th of October). That is hard to explain from a physics point of view. Surprisingly, exactly the same days 25-28, the invasion from the Northeast took a break.

The misleading appeared due to fuzzy definition of monsoon withdrawal, mostly in part such as "keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the water vapour imageries and dry weather for 5 days". Such a Linear approach to characterise a complex monsoon system is not productive. The Figure with daily accumulated rainfall provided by the IMD shows that it is almost impossible to fulfil this condition.  It is why the IMD artificially delayed monsoon withdrawal until 21st of October in Northwest India.

From my point of view, the seasonal reverse of winds over East Asia and the Pacific Ocean marks a withdrawal of Southwest monsoon and beginning of the Northeast Monsoon. Further research needs to define this event. Meanwhile, we have the data, which could help in such intricate case to identify wind pattern.

In my forecast, I rely on thermodynamical variables such as a temperature, relative humidity and its spatial relation. It no needs other interpretation. Hence, it is more reliable.

 Finally, I would like to acknowledge the IMD for collecting the weather data, which is the origin for Reanalysis and others, and which I use for my forecast.

August 14, 2020

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2020 from the Central part of India 

The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely to withdraw from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) between 3rd and 13th of October 2020. Temperature anomaly in North Pakistan shrinks the duration of the monsoon season. Nevertheless, after the monsoon withdrawal date in October, others post-monsoon rainfalls might appear over the central & northwest India.

Such scenarios happened in 1974 and 1975, but that time such a temperature in North Pakistan was not abnormal. The post-monsoon rainfalls were also observed in recent years, in particular, in 2019, 2017 and 2014.

The forecast is based on teleconnection between the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP) - Tipping Elements of Indian Summer Monsoon. 

The region of this forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG): namely in the south-eastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state. It is an area around the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by a square of 2.5°x2.5° (with an area of approximately 77000 km²). North Pakistan area means namely in North Punjab where monsoon season ceases to exist.

Temperature anomaly in North Pakistan 

During the monsoon season, the temperature in North Pakistan is higher than in the Eastern Ghats because of significantly less rainfall and shorter rainy period. While at the end of August, the temperature in the NP decreases, in the EG temperature remains around the same level. When the temperature in North Pakistan reaches the monsoon temperature in the EG, monsoon leaves Indian subcontinent.

In 2020, since April, the daily average temperature in North Pakistan remains less about 4°C less compared to the average five last years. However, in the EG there is no such anomaly. Hence, it takes less time when the temperature in North Pakistan reaches the temperature level in the EG. Thus, the anomaly in North Pakistan might notably shift forward the time of monsoon withdrawal date and shrink the duration of the monsoon season. Nevertheless, after the monsoon withdrawal date, others post-monsoon rainfalls might appear over the central & northwest India.

 

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2020 from the Central part of India, Elena Surovyatkina , PIK Potsdam

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  August 14, 2020, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and gray lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from 3rd to 13th of October 2020. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated weekly. Follow our updates.

Successful prediction of monsoon onset 

The Northern Limit of Monsoon declared by IMD appeared over EG on 12th of June. In the preceding days, a low-pressure system formed in the east-central Bay of Bengal and moved towards south Odisha. This event resulted in rainfall in many regions in central India, excluding EG region where the relative humidity (RH) had been below 50% at a temperature of 34°C – that means no rain in this area (See Figure below on 14th of June). Although there was a short-lived increase in RH over EG on 16 -17 of June, the RH fell down to 50% in the subsequent 2 days. Then from 17-26 June, a dry spell appeared unexpectedly (See plot on June 22), (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/dry-spell-for-state-may-end-with-monsoon-revival-by-sat/articleshow/76539081.cms)

In fact, the real monsoon rainfall began over the EG from 26 of June, when relative humidity overcame 80 %- threshold - which is holding around 90% level until present. See the evidence on the plot above, where the period of isolated rain is highlighted by light blue colour, and the period of continuous rainfall - by a darker blue colour. Thus, my prediction of delayed monsoon onset dates between 18th and 26th appears to be correct.

What happened with monsoon advance this year and Why the dry spell surprisingly appeared? 

To answer these questions, we analysed the data of daily temperature, relative humidity and wind components at different levels of the atmosphere. We found substantial intrusion of northwesterly mid‐tropospheric dry air from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Northwest and Central part of India between 14th and 26th of June (See Figure below). The mid-level north-westerlies formed a wedge of dry air that was deep in the far northwest of India and over-ran the monsoon flow.
The wind pattern on June 14th and 16th (166 DOY) at 600 hPa shows that the northwesterly flow was disrupted towards the southeast and in fact, turned towards the southwest. A low-pressure synoptic event appeared over Bay of Bengal, which moved west-northwestwards, and cyclonic circulation occurred over central India. It happened due to the intensive westerly flow passing over the Arabian Sea towards northeast India (Figure 16 June). However, once the synoptic event passed, the dry northwesterly flow returned to its normal position towards the southeast and dry spell appeared for 10 days (June 16th).

This is evidence that the retreat of the dry winds towards the north had not occurred, and the moist southwesterly/westerly winds had not eroded the dry winds to the extent needed. On June 24th, the dry winds did not extend till southeast India. The near-surface RH at EG was still below 80%. On June 26th, we observe the true retreat of the dry winds away from southeast India and RH increased above 80% at EG. The time series of RH after June 26th shows that the high humidity is sustained.

Based on the above findings, we conclude that the true onset of monsoon at EG occurred after June 26th. According to Parker et al. 2016, synoptic events could influence the moist westerly/southwesterly stream or dry northwesterly stream. The rainfall over central India during the period June 12-14 was a synoptic and temporary event, followed immediately by a dry spell in the region. This low-pressure event temporarily eroded the northwesterly dry stream. However, the conditions for the actual onset where sustained rainfall is possible did not occur until 26th of June.

Figure: The dry spell appearance at monsoon advance 2020 year made monsoon onset in central India considerably delayed. The figure shows the interaction between the low-level monsoon flow at 850 hPa (lower row) and an overrunning intrusion of mid-tropospheric dry air at 600 hPa (upper row). The contour plot represents the relative humidity which is shown by color.  In the contour plot, blue indicates moist conditions while red indicates dry conditions. The dashed silver contours represent RH levels above 80 % that correspond to rainy conditions. We have acquired near-surface (1000 hPa) relative humidity and horizontal wind components at 850 hPa and 600 hPa from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (Kalnay et al. 1996). The black vectors indicate wind patterns at 850 hPa while the gray vectors represent wind at 600 hPa.

May 8, 2020

Forecast of the Onset date of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2020 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) between the 18th and 26th of June 2020. The heavy rains are expected to start from the 26th of June.

The region of our forecast is located in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

Delayed monsoon onset in Central India

Will this year's monsoon bring similar conditions as the last year? Our Monsoon Research Group has already been hard at work, answering this question.

By my observations, the pre-monsoon rainfalls usually disturb the well-organization of monsoon, making it delayed and weaker. Moreover, there is an essential condition for monsoon onset: before monsoon onset, the daily temperature in the Eastern Ghats is decreasing, but in North Pakistan, it is increasing, and at monsoon onset, the temperatures must be equal. Compared to the average five last years, the daily average temperature in the Eastern Ghats in April is near 1°less, but in North Pakistan is about 4°C less. Hence, it takes several days when the temperature in the EG drop-down until the NP-level that notably delays the time of monsoon onset.

The One-Handed Monsoon 

India is surrounded by the Bay of Bengal on the east and the Arabian Sea on the west. Summer monsoon arrives in two branches: from the Arabian Sea and from the Bay of Bengal. When both branches are strong, the whole Indian subcontinent receives a good amount of rainfall. However, it is a trend in the last years when the Arabian Sea branch is becoming stronger. In Monsoon 2020 this tendency remains, and the One-Handed Monsoon expected to be again. That means that the western coast of India could receive a lot of rainfall from the Arabian Sea branch, but on the eastern coast might be a deficit of rain. And that, of course, raises the question of how much of a rainfall deficit.

The Deficit of the Monsoon Rainfall  

In this year, our Monsoon Research Group has extended the scope of expertise, and we developed a new methodology for forecasting the regional amount of monsoon rainfall for the period from June to September. Here, we present our first test of the upcoming monsoon. According to the estimation of  Dr Jingfang Fan, the forecast for the monsoon 2020 is the following:

for All India 842.85 mm (-5% below average),

for Central India - 854.07 mm (-12%),

for East & Northeast India - 1245.54 mm (-13%).

These results indicate, compared to the normal rate, a deficit of the monsoon rainfall. The specific of the upcoming season might be caused in particular, according to Dr Josef Ludescher, by the conditions of the oncoming El Nino at the end of 2020.

While the western coast of India might face the floods, the eastern coast needs to save water. Thus, sharing water is a challenge of upcoming Monsoon 2020.

How far away are we from the Monsoon onset day?

Monsoon onset Central India 2020, 22 June

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon onset day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till  June 22, 2020, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and grey lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The tipping point (red) indicates the critical temperature and the forecasted onset date. The forecasted onset dates are from 18th to 26th of June, 2020. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated once a week. Follow our updates.

Forecast of onset of Monsoon for the Telangana state

Summer Monsoon in Northern Telangana will likely begin between 16th and 24th  of June 2020. Isolated rainfall and dry spells expected between 24th of June to 15th July. Continues rainfall expected between 15th July to 13 October.

Monsoon onset forecast Telangana,  India, 22 June 2020,

Daily mean near-surface air temperature and relative humidity till June 22, 2020, for the Northern part of Telangana state (17.5°N, 80°E). The data at the PIK-monitor for Telangana will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

October 17, 2019 

Successful forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2019 from the Central part of India

According to the India Meteorological Department, the Indian Summer Monsoon has withdrawn from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) 14th October 2018 and from the entire country on 16th of October (see the IMD's map below). I issued the forecast in August that it happens between 14th and 24th October 2019. Such my forecast performed 66 days in advance is correct.

The southwest monsoon began its retreat from the boundary with Pakistan 39 days later than the normal date, it was the most delayed monsoon withdrawal recorded before. Nevertheless, then it made quickly retreat from the north to center of India, and it has withdrawn from the Central part of India on the 14th of October as it was predicted. Despite unprecedented monsoon, which broken canonical rules as in advance and at withdrawal as well, both of my forecast of onset and withdrawal dates are correct.

IMD MAP, Withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon-2019

The Map of Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon across India on October 16th, 2019 provided by the Indian Meteorological Department.
The red lines show an average date of a long history of monsoon timing considered by the IMD as a normal. The green curves indicate the northernmost limits of monsoon (NLM) from which it withdrew on any given day. See the green line - the position of NLM on 14th October, which crossed our region of the forecast. That means the monsoon has withdrawn from the Central part of India on 14 of October as it was forecasted 66 days in advance.

August 9, 2019 

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2019 from the Central part of India 

The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely to withdraw from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) around 19th October (+/- 5 days), namely between 14th and 24th October 2019.

The region of this forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG): namely in the south-eastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state. This is an area around the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by a square of 2.5°x2.5° with an area of approximately 77000 km².

This forecast made for 70 days in advance is the only one available in India. Last years during withdrawal of monsoon in the middle of October, the severe cyclonic storm led to evacuation hundred thousand people, devastating rainfall triggered dams spilling and flood. Such a long-term forecast could help the Government to do strategic planning, consolidate resources, and strengthen capacity to respond effectively to disasters.

How far away are we from the Monsoon withdrawal day? 

Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2019 from the Central part of India

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  October 14, 2019, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and gray lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from 14th to 24th of October 2019. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated weekly. Follow our updates.

June 26, 2019 

Successful forecast of the Onset Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2019 for the Central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) neared the Eastern Ghats (20N, 80 E) on 18th of June, and then on 19th of June rainfall started. On the 20th of June, the intensity of rainfall significantly increased indicating the established monsoon in this area. My prediction made 40 days in advance for the monsoon onset date was between 10 -18 of June.

According to the map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon provided by the Indian Meteorological Department, the boundary identified by fact after 48 hours-rainfall along the country from south-west to north-east, so-called the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), is located in the Eastern Ghats region between 21th -22nd of June (See the map below).

I want to clarify that I am not forecasting when the first intensive rain will start. I predict the date when the daily mean temperature crosses a certain threshold. For the Eastern Ghats, under Climate Change conditions, it is currently 36 degree Celsius, but for example, in the 90s it was 3 degrees less. Beyond that limit a transition to monsoon becomes inevitable. While in some years the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon was fast, this year it was slow. My prediction for the monsoon onset date was between 10 -18 of June. The daily mean temperature crosses a 36-degree Celsius-threshold on 17th of June. After the disappearance of cyclone 'Vayu',  it took some time for the monsoon system to accumulate sufficient moisture again. Finally, the monsoon came after crossing the temperature threshold. Please find the evidence on the maps provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (the IMD) below. 

The daily forecast over India on June 16-20 provided by the Indian Meteorological Department

 

Map of daily rainfall EG monsoon onset

The Map of daily rainfall over India on June 16-21 provided by the Indian Meteorological Department. The color bar indicates the amount of daily rainfall in mm. The region of the forecast is marked by a box. On the 19th of June, rainfall is observed in parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Rainfall is observed within the region of forecast on 19th and 21st of June indicating that monsoon has arrived here.

 Monsoon under Climate Change

In the pre-monsoon period, on May 22, the temperature in Vidarbha in Central India has reached 47.8 degree Celsius. This is the region of my forecast - the hottest place in India. Please note, the Vidarbha is not a desert; it is a highly populated area in the Eastern Ghats.

Then on 12th June 2019, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia record highest temperature on earth reaching 52.2 degrees Celsius in the shadows and 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight ( https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/kuwait-and-saudi-arabia-record-highest-temperature-on-earth-1.1560325581417).

Monsoon started under such overheating conditions resulting in severe cyclone 'Vayu'. It was the completely disorganized beginning of the monsoon. Instead of covering whole Indian subcontinent gradually by intensive showers, monsoon this year resembles a leaky blanket. With the severe cyclone 'Vayu' on the West coast, causing the evacuation of three million people, the rains on the remaining part of the country were very local, sudden and in some places very intense, but went away after one downpour. Even though large parts of the country received rainfall, distribution was non-uniform and the amount of rainfall was less than certain criterion based on the average amount of rainfall in the past 30 years. This is why, within ten days after the beginning of Monsoon on the South, the rainfall over almost the entire country was officially declared as pre-monsoon rainfall. Usually, pre-monsoon rainfall is very local, but the pre-monsoon rainfall on the scale of the country is unprecedented. Moreover, intensive rainfall in North India started even before the monsoon in the central part of India. That is breaking the well-established rules of monsoon.

Monsoon is changing with climate change. It requires to refine the criteria of monsoon onset definition accordingly. Climatological norms, which are a 30-year average of a weather variable, must be reconsidered in the context of climate change.

the Northern Limit of Monsoon on 22 June 2019

The Map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon across India on June 18-th provided by the Indian Meteorological Department
The red lines show an average date of a long history of monsoon timing considered by the IMD as a normal. The green curves indicate the northernmost limits of monsoon (NLM) up to which it has advanced on any given day. See the last green line - the position of NLM on 21th-22th June, which crossed my region of the forecast, that means the monsoon rainfall in this area continued 48 hours already and monsoon advanced up to the central part of India.

May 7, 2019

Forecast of the Onset date of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2019 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) between the 10th and 18th of June 2019.

The region of our forecast is located in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

How far away are we from the Monsoon onset day?

Indian Monsoon onset forecast Central India 2019 

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon onset day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  June 24, 2019, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and gray lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The tipping point (red) indicates the critical temperature and the forecasted onset date. The forecasted onset dates are from 10th to 18th of June, 2019. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

Forecast of onset of Monsoon for the Telangana state

Since 2016, I issue such a forecast for the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG). In 2019, I start to test the forecast for the Telangana state (17.5°N, 80°E), namely towards the East of Hyderabad, south-east of Warangal, west of the Godavari river and north of Khammam. Telangana is the 'Seed Bowl' of India; monsoon forecast is vital for the state. Export of seed can create economic opportunities for small and marginal farmers.

 I estimate the date of monsoon onset for Telangana as between the 8th and 16th of June 2019.

 Indian Monsoon onset forecast Telangana 2019

The data at the PIK-monitor for Telangana will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

Map of daily rainfall Telangana monsoon onset

The Map of daily rainfall over India on June 16-18 provided by the Indian Meteorological Department. The color bar indicates the amount of daily rainfall in mm. The region of the forecast is marked by a box. On 16th of June, rainfall is observed over Odisha and parts of Chhattisgarh, which are to the right of the box. The appearance of green patches within the square on 17th and 18th of June indicates that the monsoon has started in the region of Telangana.

Even so, those two regions, Eastern Ghats and Telangana, are neighbouring; there is a considerable difference in the interplay of the two branches of Monsoon (one from the Arabian Sea and another from the Bay of Bengal) in these regions. In some years, monsoon onset appears at the same date in these two areas, while in other years it appears - with a difference of 6-10 days. Such a difference might be caused by the simultaneous appearance of two cyclones in the Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal, which prevent the advance of monsoon for several days. Another reason might be an anticyclone on the north of the Arabian Sea, which decelerates the turning of the Monsoon winds in the Bay of Bengal toward Indian subcontinent. These synoptic events are impossible to predict well in advance and it could be forecasted near the date of its appearance only. This is why the forecast in Telangana region is challenging. In such a case the Indian Meteorological Department track cyclones perfectly that helps me to update a monsoon onset date in June, on the eve of monsoon. We are collaborating with the Indian Meteorological Department and our forecasts complement each other. We are working together to improve climate resilience by building new capacities via the early forecast of monsoon.

October 21, 2018

Successful earliest forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2018 from the Central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) has withdrawn from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) 18th - 21st October 2018. I issued our forecast on July 30, 2018, that the monsoon will withdraw from the Central part of India around 18th of October (+/- 5 days), namely between 13rd and 23rd of October 2018. Hence, my earliest forecast of the withdrawal date made 80 days in advance was correct.

What is important to note is that my forecast of monsoon withdrawal date is the only one available in India. In 2016 and 2017,  I issued successful predictions around 70 days in advance. In 2018, for the first time, I performed a successful forecast 80 days in advance.

How did the monsoon withdrawal in 2018?

In the first decade of October, namely between 2nd-6th of October, it seemed that the rainy season is over for whole Northern part of India, and the Monsoon quickly left in the English way without saying goodbye. This is why the withdrawal line appeared on the Map of Withdrawal Southwest of Monsoon at 16°N on October 6 (http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php). Does it mean, predicting withdrawal between 13 and 23 of October, I have missed?

In fact, it was the calm before a storm or dry spell in Monsoon how it is called in India. Starting from October 7, Monsoon came back to Northeast part of India with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Titli; widespread rains hit Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, districts, killing nine people, on October 11. About 300000 people were evacuated from five coastal districts. The Heavy Rainfall and Wind Warnings were continued until 14th of October and then isolated rains in Central part of India until 18th of October.

According to the IMD,  "Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from the remaining parts of the country and thus from the entire country today, the 21st October 2018."

Thus, my prediction for very late withdrawal of Monsoon between 13 and 23 of October was correct.

Please find the evidence on the maps provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (the IMD) below.

the evidence: How did the monsoon withdrawal in 2018?

Caption

Summarising results of my tests of forecasting Monsoon onset and withdrawal for the period from 2016 to 2018, I emphasize for the three years in a row; all six forecasts were successful.

July 30, 2018
Earliest Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2018 from the Central part of India.

The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely (with an 84% probability) to withdraw from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) around 18th October (+/- 5 days), namely between 13th and 23rd October 2018.

The region of our forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Easter Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

Our earliest forecast (70 days in advance) is the only one available the Central part of India. Last years severe and devastating rainfall poured down on the eve of withdrawal of monsoon, triggering dams spilling and floods. Our long-range forecast of the withdrawal date of monsoon rainfall is crucial for taking appropriate decisions for as for local and central Government as well as farmers, sugar companies, managing water and energy resources, and other stakeholders.

PIK Monsoon Withdrawal Monitor 2018

The PIK- monsoon withdrawal monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till  December 30, 2018, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue). Violet and gray lines are past 5-years average for the same regions. The tipping point (red) indicates the critical temperature and the forecasted withdrawal date. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from 13th to 23rd October. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

 

June 19, 2018

Successful earliest forecast of the Onset date of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2018 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) neared the Eastern Ghats (20N, 80 E) on 9th of June, and then it embraced the region of forecast on 12th of June. We made our prediction on May 7, 2018, that the monsoon will set over central India on 15th June (+/- 4 days). Hence, our prediction made 40 days in advance was correct.

After 12th of June, there is no further advance in internal part of the Indian subcontinent during the next week until today, 19th June, due to (i) a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Bay of Bengal, (ii) local overheating of the Eastern Ghats (20N,80 E) region, where temperature reached 44°C that is linked to global warming, and (ii) premonsoon rainfall 7- 8 June appeared due to overheating.

According to the map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon on 19 June 2018 provided by the Indian Meteorological Department, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is located in the Eastern Ghats region during 9th -19th of June (See the map below).

Our next forecast for the monsoon withdrawal date from the central part of India will be issued on July 27th, 2018. The PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week to show how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Follow our updates.

Advance of Monsoon onset 2018

The Map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon across India on June 19th provided by the Indian Meteorological Department.
The red lines show an average date of a long history of monsoon timing considered by the IMD as a normal. The green curves indicate the northernmost limits of monsoon (NLM) from which it withdrew on any given day. See the last green line - the position of NLM on 9th-19th October, which crossed our region of the forecast. That means the monsoon has withdrawn from the Central part of India.

 

May 07, 2018
Forecast of the Onset date of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2018 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) around 15th June (+/- 4 days) namely between 11th to 19th June 2018.

The region of our forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

October 16, 2017

Successful earliest forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon from the Central part of India.

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) has withdrawn from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) 15th-16th October 2017. We issued our forecast on July 30, 2017, that the monsoon will withdraw from the Central part of India around 12th October (+/- 5 days), namely between 7th and 17th October 2017. Hence, our earliest forecast of the withdrawal date made 70 days in advance was correct.

The withdrawal of monsoon from northwest India normally starts on September 1. However, the 2017 monsoon withdrawal was delayed for nearly 3 weeks and commenced on 27th September. Nevertheless, the monsoon withdrawal reached the region of our forecast on 15th October, and then it passed the Eastern Ghats region on 16th October, i.e. within our prediction interval. It was confirmed today by the information provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (the IMD), it declared that the monsoon withdrawal line passes through the region of our forecast (the Eastern Ghats, 20N, 80E) 15th -16th October 2017. Please find the evidence on the map below.

PIK-Monsoon Withdrawal 2017 with map of the IMD

The Map of Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon across India on October 16th provided by the Indian Meteorological Department.
The red lines show an average date of a long history of monsoon timing considered by the IMD as a normal. The green curves indicate the northernmost limits of monsoon (NLM) from which it withdrew on any given day. See the last green line - the position of NLM on 15th-16th October, which crossed our region of the forecast. That means the monsoon has withdrawn from the Central part of India.

July 30, 2017
Earliest Forecast of the Withdrawal Date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2017 from the Central part of India.

The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely (with an 84% probability) to withdraw from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) around 12th October (+/- 5 days), namely between 7th and 17th October 2017.

The region of our forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

Our earliest forecast (70 days in advance) is the only one available the Central part of India. Our goal is to provide farmers, agriculture companies, managing water, and energy resources and other stakeholders from national to local levels with the information on the monsoon withdrawal dates with the aim of minimizing regional risks of the Indian population vulnerability from climate-related phenomena.

June 18, 2017
Successful earliest forecast of the onset of Southwest Monsoon 2017 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) has set in over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) 16-th June 2017. We made our prediction on May 8-th 2017 that the monsoon will set over the central India on 18-th June (+/- 4 days). Hence, our prediction made 40 days in advance was correct.

In fact, the monsoon neared the region of forecast on 14-th of June, and then it approached the Eastern Ghats region on 16-th of June. The Indian Meteorological Department (the IMD) declared that the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through the Eastern Ghats region during 16-th -18-th of June (See the map below).

Our next forecast for the monsoon withdrawal date from the central part of India will be issued on July 27-th. The PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week to show how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Follow our updates.

The Map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon across India provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/allindiawxfcbulletin.php)

The Map of Advance of Southwest Monsoon across India on June 18-th provided by the Indian Meteorological Department and updated on the progress of monsoon.
The red lines show an average date of a long history of monsoon timing considered by the IMD as a normal. The green curves indicate the northern most limits of monsoon (NLM) up to which it has advanced on any given day. See the last green line - the position of NLM on 16th-18th June, which crossed our region of the forecast. That means the monsoon advanced up to the central part of India.

May 08, 2017
Forecast of the Onset date of the Indian Summer Monsoon - 2017 over the central part of India

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely (with a 73% probability) to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) on or around 18th June (+/- 4 days).

The region of our forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N,80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

How far away are we from the Monsoon withdrawal day?

Onset plot_2017

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till October 22, 2017, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue).Violet and gray lines- past 5-years average for same regions.The tipping point (red) indicates the critical temperature and the forecasted onset date. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from 7th to 17th October. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

In our definition, the onset of monsoon in a particular region of the Indian subcontinent is a date when daily mean values of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcome the tipping point. After this date, the temperature falls abruptly, humidity growth rapidly and then in at least two days monsoon rainfall inevitably come. The tipping point means a critical threshold that we estimated for daily mean near-surface air temperature to be 35.4C and for daily mean relative humidity - 36.5% for the region of our forecast in the current global warming conditions.

Described above conditions cannot appear at a bogus monsoon, therefore our forecast excludes a bogus onset. Nevertheless, if a bogus onset appears prior the forecasted date then the monsoon onset date will shift for the duration of a bogus monsoon. In this case, we will update our forecast.

The data at the PIK- monsoon onset monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

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When do we issue our forecasts?

This test forecasting has started in May 2016; the forecast will be updated yearly before and during the Monsoon season. Normally, a forecast for the onset of Monsoon will be made available on May 8-th. A forecast for the monsoon withdrawal will be issued on July 27-th.

We’ve created this website to provide stakeholders on national, regional and local levels with the information on the monsoon timing with the aim to minimizing the regional risk of the Indian population vulnerability from climate-related phenomena.

This page is also intended for researchers who interested in a monsoon forecast, who use forecasts in their research, or who wish to learn more about current efforts to improve the forecasting of the monsoon timing. Here we also provide the results of forecasts of the previous years (see also press releases and news from 2016).

Why is a forecast of monsoon rainfall so crucial for India?

The economy of India is able to maintain its GDP in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even two weeks, it can spell disaster because of the high population depending on agriculture - 70% of its people directly related to farming. Agriculture, in turn, is dependent on the monsoon.

The long-range forecast of the onset and withdrawal dates of monsoon rainfall is critical for taking appropriate decisions at various levels from farmer’s field (e.g. a choice of plowing and seeding days) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies and trade etc.).

Although the rainy season happens annually between June and September, the time of monsoon season’s onset and withdrawal varies within a month from year to year. The important feature of the monsoon is that it starts and ends suddenly. Hence, despite enormous progress having been made in predicting monsoon since 1886, it remains a significant scientific challenge.

How do we make predictions?

To make predictions of monsoon timing, we apply our recently developed method [Stolbova V. et.al, 2016] which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon - the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP).

Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40, the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA.

Important to note that the Indian Meteorological Department (the IMD) forecasts monsoon two weeks in advance and only for Kerala state on the southern tip of India and not for the other 28 states of the country, and the IMD does not forecast withdrawal date. Our study concerns the central part of India. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the region of the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) where the prediction has never been made.

We were inspired by the paper of Ananthakrishanan and Soman [R. Ananthakrishnan and M.K. Soman, 1990], where the authors defined the onset of monsoon as follows: "it is not a transition from a regime of no rain to rain; it is a transition from a sporadic rainfall to a spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall…».
In our study, we have found the evidence in observational data that we can consider the onset of monsoon as a critical transition - a sudden transition to the monsoon when critical thresholds (in particular, in near-surface air temperature, relative humidity) are reached.

If the onset of monsoon is a critical transition, then critical phenomena can be detected. In our study, we used the phenomenon of growth of fluctuations [E. Surovyatkina et al.,2015] on the eve of the transition as a precursor of a sudden transition to the monsoon.

In contrast to traditional approaches which use precursors for prediction of the time of the critical transition (that work only retrospectively, [Kefi et al.,2014]), we discovered how to use precursors in a new way – to find regions where critical conditions for an occurrence of the Indian monsoon originate.

We revealed two geographic regions with highest fluctuations in the near-surface air temperature on the eve of the monsoon - the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP). The highest fluctuations in EG and NP show upcoming instabilities (a cyclone and anticyclone). Highly developed instability occurring in these regions create necessary conditions for the spatially organized and temporally sustained monsoon rainfall. These factors allow us to identify EG and NP as tipping elements of the monsoon.

Moreover, we found that on the eve of the onset and the withdrawal of monsoon in the central part of India the temperature and relative humidity in two tipping elements equalize. We use these findings making predictions of monsoon timing.

Results of our forecasts of 2016

The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw?

Daily Maps provided by the Indian Meteorological Department

Daily Maps provided by the Indian Meteorological Department

Daily Maps provided by the Indian Meteorological Department,

The center of the region of our forecast (20°N,80°E) is indicated by the red cross.

We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016, that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region.

We forecasted the monsoon withdrawal from the Eastern Ghats on the 5th of October with a deviation of +/-5 days. We delivered this prediction on July 27-th, 2016, namely 70 days in advance. The actual monsoon withdrawal started on October 10-th when the relative humidity in the region started to decrease, then it passed the 80 percent threshold, and a transition back to a monsoon became impossible, meteorological stations registered it also, and on October 12-th meteorological stations reported 'No rain' in the EG and also in areas located across the subcontinent in the direction from the North Pakistan to the Bay of Bengal. Hence, the date of monsoon withdrawal - October 10-th, predicted 70 days in advance, lies within our prediction interval.

We emphasize that our forecasts of the monsoon onset and withdrawal were delivered for 40 and 70 days in advance respectively, and both of our forecasts lie within our prediction interval.

Our results show that our method allows predicting the monsoon not only retrospectively but in the future. In 2016 we predicted of the onset and withdrawal dates of the Southwest monsoon over the Eastern Ghats region in Central India for 40 and 70 days in advance respectively. Hence, in 2016 we proved that such early prediction of the monsoon timing is possible.

Article: Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths (2016): Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1–9 [doi:10.1002/2016GL068392]

Weblink to the article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068392/full

Data sources

The ERA-40 data are available at

http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era40-daily/levtype=pl/

The NCEP/NCAR data are available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/


BMU

Prof. Dr. Dr.Sc Elena Surovyatkina is the group leader of the monsoon research within the EPICC project. This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag.

Inquiries:

Elena Surovyatkina,

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Complexity Science: Machine Learning, Nonlinear Methods and Decision Strategies

elena.surovyatkina[at]pik-potsdam.de

The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely (with a 73% probability) to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) on or around 18th June (+/- 4 days).

The region of our forecast locates in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N,80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).

How far away are we from the Monsoon withdrawal day?

Onset plot_2017

The PIK- monsoon onset monitor shows how far away we are from the Monsoon withdrawal day. Daily mean near-surface air temperature till October 22, 2017, for the Eastern Ghats (red) and North Pakistan (blue).Violet and gray lines- past 5-years average for same regions.The tipping point (red) indicates the critical temperature and the forecasted onset date. The forecasted withdrawal dates are from 7th to 17th October. The data at the PIK-monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

In our definition, the onset of monsoon in a particular region of the Indian subcontinent is a date when daily mean values of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcome the tipping point. After this date, the temperature falls abruptly, humidity growth rapidly and then in at least two days monsoon rainfall inevitably come. The tipping point means a critical threshold that we estimated for daily mean near-surface air temperature to be 35.4C and for daily mean relative humidity - 36.5% for the region of our forecast in the current global warming conditions.

Described above conditions cannot appear at a bogus monsoon, therefore our forecast excludes a bogus onset. Nevertheless, if a bogus onset appears prior the forecasted date then the monsoon onset date will shift for the duration of a bogus monsoon. In this case, we will update our forecast.

The data at the PIK- monsoon onset monitor will be updated twice a week. Follow our updates.

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