Major risk assessment links climate change with Germany’s national security
The GeoClimRisk project originates in connection with a related initiative under Germany’s National Security Strategy 2023. Under the Strategy, leading science organisations in-country were tasked with developing a National Interdisciplinaray Climate Risk Assessment (NIKE), which – for the first time – comprehensively assesses the many inter-linked strategic and security risks, both direct and indirect, for Germany arising with climate change and the energy transition. The Assessment was co-authored by GeoClimRisk Project Lead, Fanny Thornton, and was launched at events with Federal Foreign Office State Secretary, Jennifer Morgan, as well as at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025. GeoClimRisk picks up on the Assessment by extending the lens of climate change-related risks and strategic foresight to work with partners in other country contexts.
https://metis.unibw.de/assets/pdf/National_Interdisciplinary_Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf (pdf)
Assessment-Website: https://metis.unibw.de/de/nike/
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-eu-germany-bnd-report-security-global-warming/
Press release by the Federal Foreign Office: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2700056-2700056
DGAP MEMO: Climate Change is Affecting Geopolitics – Not Just the Other Way Around
Together with its project partner, the Center for Foreign Policy (DGAP), the GeoClimRisk project aimed to provide a more comprehensive overview of the factors driving geopolitical shifts.
Until now, the focus has primarily been on the geopolitics of decarbonization—changing energy supplies, new resource dependencies, and mitigation finance. However, equal attention must be given to how the costs and damages of climate change are reshaping geopolitics, particularly through economic decline, uninhabitability, and the uneven distribution of impacts.
A Climate Double-Crunch? Implications for Development and Security in India
The side event “A Climate Double-Crunch? Implications for Development and Security in India”, held on October 22, 2025, in Berlin as part of the Berlin Climate and Security Conference, was met with great success. Jointly organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) under the GeoClimRisk project, the session explored how India is navigating the double crunch of managing the accelerating impacts of climate change while advancing sustainable development and an energy transition.
Fanny Thornton, Project Lead of GeoClimRisk project at PIK, moderated the lively and thought-provoking exchange among an expert panel. The panel featured Utkarsh Patel, Climate Science and Policy Researcher at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), India; Dr. Abdullah Fahimi, Research Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP); Frauke Roeser, Climate Policy Analyst at NewClimate Institute; and Anne-Mareike Vanselow, Acting Head of the Division for Climate Partnerships, Bilateral Climate Cooperation, and the International Climate Initiative (IKI) at the German Federal Foreign Office (AA).
Their discussion built upon a scientific input by Dr. Nicolas Bauer and Anna Reckwitz from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), highlighted how overlapping climate and development pressures can reinforce one another, shaping both risks and opportunities for emerging economies such as India.
Throughout the session, the panelists examined India’s complex position as a rapidly developing economy that is simultaneously exposed to mounting climate-related stresses. They discussed the implications for development planning, infrastructure resilience, and security, emphasizing the importance of integrated policy approaches that connect climate adaptation, sustainable growth, and regional stability.
The event underscored that the “climate double crunch” is not only an Indian challenge but a global one, demanding stronger cooperation between science, policy, and practice. Participants agreed that India’s experience offers valuable lessons for other emerging economies seeking to balance development ambitions with climate resilience.
By linking scientific insight with policy dialogue, the session demonstrated the importance of evidence-based approaches to climate security and highlighted the crucial role of interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing one of the defining challenges of our time.
