South America

Disruptive weather events such as El Niño can severely affect food and water security, undermining the foundations of resilient development at national, regional, and local scales. At the same time, agricultural expansion and land‑use change are driving deforestation, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions, adding further stress to the environment.

To strengthen resilience against climate variability, cross‑sectoral planning based on seasonal climate forecasts is essential. Such integrated approaches help align adaptation and mitigation measures, supporting sustainable development and long‑term stability across the region.

Our work in South America

Seasonal forecasts and regional climate modelling play a key role in assessing the impacts of disruptive weather events across national, regional, and community levels. The regional scale is especially important—it is where the effects of climate change are most tangible and where most adaptation and mitigation actions are designed and implemented. Robust, sector‑specific scenario modelling supports sustainable planning and informed decision‑making.

Building this capacity through mutual knowledge exchange helps evaluate climate risks to water resources and agricultural production and improves understanding of climate‑induced migration patterns. Such efforts strengthen resilience to regional climate variability.

In Brazil, we work with local partners to address major challenges related to agricultural production, food systems, bioenergy, deforestation, and agricultural trade, integrating these issues into our regional climate and land‑use research. In Peru, eco‑hydrological models have been developed for all major river basins, as well as for the Upper Amazon and Upper Rio de la Plata rivers. These models help identify the impacts of climate change and explore adaptation options in collaboration with local experts and stakeholders.