AdvanTip

The project achieves a breakthrough in early warning of tipping points by leveraging progress in theory, AI and physical understanding. The subpolar gyre (SPG) is our main target because it could tip quickly and soon and is forced slower than it can respond, meaning that critical slowing down (CSD) behaviour may be expected before tipping. Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) outlet glaciers are a secondary target posing additional challenges of being rapidly forced. The breakthrough that we seek in early warning methods will be used to optimise the design of an SPG tipping point early warning system, guiding observations by TA1 and TA2, and increasing confidence and precision in when tipping points are likely to be crossed.