GeoClimRisk: New country risk profiles explore climate and economic risks in India, Indonesia and Nigeria

The profiles provide a country-specific assessment of physical climate risks, economic and energy structures, and the policy landscape. Climate and transition scenarios are used to explore how climate impacts and the transition to a climate-neutral economy could affect growth, productivity, fiscal space and investment. The findings are then used to assess policy choices, investment needs and trade-offs, as well as the broader geopolitical, geoeconomic and security implications.

India, Indonesia and Nigeria all face the “Double Cost Crunch”: while experiencing significant economic impacts from climate change, they must also invest in adaptation, resilience and the transformation of their economies. Increasing climate risks mean that simultaneous investment in adaptation, resilience and economic transformation will be essential for sustaining long-term economic growth and development.

Delaying the transition could further increase climate risks and, in turn, future damages, adaptation needs and financing requirements. The analysis therefore highlights the need to address climate risks and transition costs at the same time.

The findings will be presented at the Berlin Climate and Security Conference (BCSC), held at the German Federal Foreign Office on 6 October, 2026. PIK, together with the international project partners, will host a breakout session entitled “The Double Cost Crunch: Why Climate Investments Are Essential for Security” from 15:50 to 16:50 to discuss the results.

GeoClimRisk – The Geopolitics of Climate Risks

GeoClimRisk is led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The international research partners are the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) in India; the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) in Indonesia; and the Resource and Environmental Policy Research Centre (REPRC), Environment for Development (EfD) at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

The project is funded through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) on behalf of the German Federal Foreign Office as part of the Climate Diplomacy Action Programme (CDAP), and is implemented by GIZ.