Carbon dioxide removal might need to scale faster than solar to meet climate targets

William Lamb, PIK researcher and report author, said, “Countries have pledged around 2.7 billion tonnes of carbon removal by 2035 and about 3.6 billion by 2050, but climate pathways require much more, especially in the long term. This leaves a gap that grows significantly over time. Most pledges rely on forests and land, with newer technologies playing only a small role. Delays in cutting emissions would make this gap even larger.”

Today, the world removes about 2.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere each year, almost all of it through land-based actions such as restoring forests. Novel technologies that use machines or minerals to lock away carbon only account for around 0.1 percent of total removals – but have been growing at 40 percent per year.

Cutting emissions remains the first priority

The authors emphasise that cutting emissions remains the first and most important priority for tackling climate change, but CDR capacity is needed to address emissions that are hardest to eliminate. CDR is also fundamental to return warming to 1.5°C or below after an overshoot, as global emissions will need be net negative to reduce temperatures from their peak. Before net zero, CDR deployment can also contribute to capping peak warming at lower levels.

Sabine Fuss, PIK researcher and report author, said, "We cannot rely on a single CDR method to close the gap. Conservative estimates for removal potentials from different methods are around 1 billion tons of CO₂ per year. A diverse portfolio of CDR methods, with different approaches tailored for different contexts and geographies, would help to preserve flexibility, reduce costs, and maximise sustainability benefits."

Despite the projected shortfall, activity behind the scenes is growing; research funding, trial projects and startups focused on CDR have all increased, and investment in CDR now makes up around 3 percent of overall investment in climate tech, rebounding last year even as wider climate investment has slowed.

Activity concentrated in a small number of countries

The authors warn that today’s CDR system is fragile. In recent years, only about 20 percent of planned novel CDR capacity has actually been delivered, highlighting how challenging it is to bring new projects forward into operation.

Morgan Edwards, lead author of the report and Assistant Professor at University of Wisconsin-Madison, said, “Growing investment in CDR will depend on expectations of future demand, but those expectations are fragile. Activity is highly concentrated in a small number of countries and approaches. That creates real vulnerability – local changes in policy or market signals risks slowing progress globally”.

Without faster cuts in emissions and stronger, more predictable demand for high-quality CDR, the gap between current capacity and targets will keep widening, making climate goals much harder and more expensive to achieve.

About The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal (SoCDR) is the first independent global assessment of CDR, convened by experts at the University of Oxford, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, University of Wisconsin—Madison, and University of Maryland. It tracks progress, identifies gaps, and provides clear insights to inform action through evidence. Learn more at www.stateofcdr.org.