New Emissions Gap Report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5°C

Full implementation of countries’  climate targets (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8 percent by 2030 and 11-15 percent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. If similar efforts continue, warming would be limited to 2.6°C. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional net zero targets are achieved, global warming would only be limited to 2.1°C in this century. By contrast, current policies would lead to warming of 2.8°C this century and increase thereafter. 

These outcomes are worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs have barely made a difference for these projections.

Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C. In addition, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario creates a need for the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 billion tonnes of CO2 over the course of this century.

Bright spots

Although current policies fall short of the reductions needed, the report shows that climate policies can be successful: evaluated policies in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9 percent. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated. A continuation of these trends, supported by additional policies, would bring the world on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels would require reducing the shares of coal, oil and gas in global energy supply by at least 55, 15 and 5 percent, respectively, by 2035 relative to 2025. Electricity generation from coal would need to be effectively phased out globally by 2040, while methane emissions would need to fall by at least 25 percent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels.

PIK scientist William Lamb led the chapter on global emissions trends, while his PIK colleague Jan Minx led the chapter on what works in climate policy and how action can be accelerated.