Below are some potential topics. Different topics may be available in addition, and your own ideas are welcome too. Just get in touch with me.
Note that programming skills (e.g., Python) and a strong background in quantitative science may be required.
1. Population exposure to unprecedented extreme events regimes
Previous studies [1,2] quantified the density of human population in terms of mean annual temperature (and precipitation), and demonstrated how global warming pushes large parts of the world population into climate regimes never experienced before. Here, we extend this idea beyond mean annual conditions, to extreme events: Floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves, wildfires, and potential crop failures. Their frequency is expected to change with global warming, and these events are arguably what really matters for many aspects of livability and prosperity. This work will utilize multi-hazard extreme event indicators that have recently been derived from ISIMIP3b data (Schewe et al., forthcoming).
[1] Lenton, T. M., Xu, C., Abrams, J. F., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S.,
Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K. L., Dunn, R. R., Svenning, J.-C.,
& Scheffer, M. (2023). Quantifying the human cost of global warming.
Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6
[2] Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C., & Scheffer,
M. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 117(21), 11350–11355.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
2. Water scarcity assessment accounting for future water demand and adaptation.
Water scarcity can be defined as the ratio of water demand to water availability. The overarching goal here is to study how water scarcity evolves in the future globally under climate change (affecting mainly water availability) as well as socioeconomic changes (affecting water demand), and to assess the effect of certain adaptation measures such as improved irrigation techniques. All based on ISIMIP3b hydrological simulations. A novel aspect will be to account not only for surface water but also for trends in groundwater resources. However, the necessary groundwater simulations are not available yet, nor are the surface water simulations including adaptation. In the MSc project, we would use currently available model simulations for an initial analysis both as preparation for the larger assessment and to already gain interesting insights. Concretely, we use:
- Projected surface water availability (measured by river runoff, potentially weighted by discharge distribution)
- Projected irrigation water withdrawals
- Projected domestic and industrial water withdrawals
all at monthly time step. Starting with a single global water model, climate model and SSP scenario; later extending to further scenarios and models as feasible.
We calculate the water scarcity indicator (availability/withdrawal) at every grid cell and separately for each month, and analyze its spatial distribution, seasonal distribution, and how it changes over time. This will be the first global water scarcity assessment based on ISIMIP3. Compared to earlier multi-model water scarcity assessments (e.g., [3,4]), it also accounts for future changes in water demand, including climate change-induced changes in irrigation water demand.
[3] Liu, J., Li, D., Chen, H., Wang, H., Wada, Y., Kummu, M., Gosling,
S. N., Yang, H., Pokhrel, Y., & Ciais, P. (2024). Timing the first
emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity. Nature
Communications, 15(1), 7129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z
[4] Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W. N.
W., Clark, D. B. D. B. D. B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M.
B. M. B. M., Colón-González, F. J. F. J. F. J., Gosling, S. N. S.
N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T. F. T., Satoh, Y.,
Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., … Kabat, P. (2014). Multimodel
assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3245–3250.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110
