KINETICS

Currently available energy modeling systems are unable to simultaneously represent the long-term and global energy transformation and innovation dynamics while also accounting the hour-by-hour and regional dynamics that are so critical for integrating wind and solar power. The sectoral project KINETICS will explore methods to couple long-term integrated assessment models (IAMs) and spatially and temporally granular energy system models (ESMs) bidirectionally, allowing us to leverage the best of both worlds in analyzing the transition to renewables-dominated low-carbon futures. Since a full bidirectional coupling has not yet been demonstrated at scale, we will explore several different methods with different levels of risk and pay-off, ranging from an iterative method we have high confidence will work but entails longer computation times, to using machine learning to generate surrogate models for ESMs, which would dramatically reduce complexity while also providing deep insights on the signal-to-noise ratio in ESM calculations. The groundwork for these methods has already been laid in several preliminary studies.

The methods will be demonstrated in two well-established models, the IAM REMIND developed at PIK, and the ESM PyPSA developed at TUB, with case studies demonstrated in regional models for major economies co-developed with partners from the respective countries, taking advantage of the PyPSA-Earth approach led by OET. Further, the novel modeling system will be used to analyze the potential of sector-coupling, electrification and demand side flexibility for achieving emission reductions at lower costs, derive new and improved global transformation pathways with high levels of regional realism, vastly improving the quality and robustness of scenarios guiding policy and stakeholders from the private sector. Since electricity- and biomass-based fuels are important solutions for hard-to-abate energy demands and represent a large flexible demand in climate-neutral systems, anchored at the IAM-ESM interface, we offer an Optional Addendum to explore this topic.