"Most of the CO₂ budget that would push warming to 1.5°C has already been emitted, mainly by the world’s major economies. Now, midway through the decade, when global emissions were supposed to have halved, they continue to rise. It is unacceptable that 2025 CO₂ emissions are projected to be 1,1 percent higher than 2024. At current emission levels, there are only 4 years left before the carbon budget for 1.5°C is exhausted. This is a timeline with profound implications for climate justice and equity, as the remaining budget will be consumed primarily by high-emitting countries while vulnerable communities and fragile economies bear the consequences.
Beyond 1.5°C, the risk of crossing tipping points increases, and with it the risk of severe cascading impacts. In each case, the impacts would be catastrophic – this cannot be overstated. Every 0.1°C increase in global warming results in impacts and risks substantially higher, including longer and deadlier heatwaves, more frequent and intense wildfires, storms, and precipitation extremes, with oversized damage done to vulnerable communities, fragile economies and indigenous people. This means adaptation must be an important focus at COP30.
Science shows we need at least 5 percent emission reductions every year, starting now. Unfortunately, current pledges equal a total 5 percent reduction in 10 years.
Continued reliance on fossil fuels is likely to push the world faster and longer beyond 1.5°C. Achieving global net zero emissions requires a radical pivot in mindset and governance in all countries, as well as especially scaling up renewable energy while phasing out all fossil fuels and ending deforestation.
It is impossible to stop temperatures from rising, and getting back to 1.5C, without quickly phasing out fossil fuels. This is physics.
It is imperative for countries to use COP30 to create a roadmap and set the world on a path to phasing out fossil fuels. We know that many countries are speaking out about this, President Lula repeated it in his opening speeches, Colombia is gathering support for a declaration and many countries from Europe and Asia are being active and vocal. There is momentum, and it cannot be lost. As negotiators meet up in the coming hours and days, the development of pathways to phase out fossil fuels must be their top priority. It’s the only option to avert a planetary crisis.
Despite the urgency of this moment, some countries are making concerted efforts here at the COP and before at the IPCC negotiations, to divorce science from the climate negotiations, when it should remain its foundations. We are seeing science being scrubbed from texts, and that is part of a wider strategy of delay and denial. The data, the science, is vital for us to be making the right decisions, both here at COP and back at home."
Carlos A. Nobre, Science Panel of the Amazon
Chris Field, Stanford University
Fatima Denton, United Nations University
Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Marina Hirota, Instituto Serrapilheira
Piers Forster, University of Leeds
Ricarda Winkelmann, Max-Planck Institute of Geoanthropology
Thelma Krug, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
Paulo Artaxo, Universidade de São Paulo
Link to Planetary Science Pavilion:
Link to Planetary Science Pavilion statement:
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