Looking for SURPRISES in African Coastal Regions

The project, titled SURPRISES, investigates socio-ecological tipping mechanisms  and transformation pathwayds in the coastal regions of Africa. Together with research groups from South Africa, France, Sweden, Spain, Kenya, and Norway our team explores how human–nature systems in marine and coastal environments respond to different social, political, and climatic scenarios, with a particular focus on emerging climate tipping point risks. The overarching goal of the project is to understand what transformative change is needed to achieve sustainable and equitable coastal and marine futures that are resilient to surprises in African ocean basins.

At the core of the project are case studies conducted in three regions of particular interest, with the first stakeholder workshop planned for November 2026 in Cape Town. During these workshops, participants’ mental models will be collected, analyzed, and integrated into a computational model. The simulations will then project the identified socio-ecological processes onto a range of scenarios, including abrupt climate shifts and potential government interventions.
The resulting narratives and future pathways are intended to help stakeholders adapt to increasing environmental and societal pressures affecting both livelihoods and ecosystems. The project focuses especially on conserving autonomy and cultural heritage of local people and avoiding tipping of coral reef and fishery systems. After conducting the regional studies, it is planned to transfer the gained knowledge on a pan-African Ocean scale.

The project is led on PIK’s side by Jonathan Donges. Implementation is carried out by Lukas Röhrich, whose PhD thesis will be based on the project. Additional support in developing the scenario framework including expertise from TIPMIP is provided by Sina Loriani.