Central Asia

Central Asia, comprising Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is a region of high diversity, with extensive deserts, wide steppes, and high mountain ranges. Yet, this rich natural environment is increasingly under pressure from climate change, which amplifies existing environmental and socio‑economic challenges.

Changing hydrological patterns have reduced the already limited availability of freshwater. This shortage directly affects agriculture, a cornerstone of Central Asian economies, leading to lower crop yields and increasing risks to food security.

The consequences extend well beyond the environment. Competition for scarce resources is intensifying, raising the potential for regional tensions and conflict. As rural livelihoods become less viable, many people migrate to cities or abroad in search of better opportunities. This trend places additional strain on urban infrastructure and social services and can increase economic dependence on foreign partners.

Our work in Central Asia

The Green Central Asia (GCA) initiative, launched by the Federal Republic of Germany, aims to foster regional dialogue on the impacts and risks of climate change. Within this initiative, PIK works closely with local partners to study climate change, hydrology, sustainable water resource management, and agriculture, including crop yield forecasting. The research also examines how climate impacts influence security and explores effective adaptation strategies for the region.

We also aim to strengthen collaboration across disciplines to generate integrated results that are directly relevant to decision‑makers. Another key goal is to enhance science communication by creating materials that are clear, engaging, and easy for target audiences to understand.

  • Didovets, I., Lobanova, A., Krysanova, V., Menz, C., Babagalieva, Z., Nurbatsina, A., Gavrilenko, N., Khamidov, V., Umirbekov, A., Qodirov, S., Muhyyew, D., Hattermann, F. F. (2021): Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments. - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 34, 100779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100779
  • Didovets, I., Krysanova, V., Nurbatsina, A., Fallah, B. H., Krylova, V., Saparova, A., Niyazov, J., Kalashnikova, O., Hattermann, F. F. (2024): Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments. - Climatic Change, 177, 16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3
  • Fallah, B. H., Didovets, I., Rostami, M., Hamidi, M. (2024): Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections, International Journal of Climatology 44 (10), 3191-3213, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8519
  • Fallah, B. H., Rostami, M., Didovets, I., Dong, Z. (2024) Highresolution CMIP6 analysis highlights emerging climate challenges in alpine and Tibetan Tundra zones, Meteorological Applications 31 (5), e70001,  https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70001
  • Fallah, B. H., Rostami, M., Russo, E., Harder, P., Menz, C., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., Hattermann, F. F. (2025): Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach. - Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 1, 161-180. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025
  • Fallah, B. H., Russo, E., Menz, C., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., Hattermann, F. F. (2023): Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia. - Scientific Reports, 13, 6854. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6
  • Lobanova, A., Didovets, I., Menz, C., Umirbekov, A., Babagalieva, Z., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V. (2021): Rapid assessment of climate risks for irrigated agriculture in two river basins in the Aral Sea Basin. - Agricultural Water Management, 243, 106381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106381
  • Nurbatsina, A., Salavatova, Z., Tursunova, A., Didovets, I., Huthoff, F., Rodrigo-Clavero, M.-E., Rodrigo-Ilarri, J. (2025): Flood Modelling of the Zhabay River Basin Under Climate Change Conditions. - Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 12, 2, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020035
  • Romanovska, P., Undorf, S., Schauberger, B., Duisenbekova, A., Gornott, C. (2024): Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan. - Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 031005. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f7
  • Wesch, S. (2023). Central Asia: Challenges and opportunities by way of the Middle Corridor. In H. Lampalzer & M. Hainzl (Eds.), Impact of Climate Change on Security – Perspectives in the Light of the OSCE (pp. 117–123). Federal Ministry of Defence, Austria. Retrieved from https://www.bmlv.gv.at/pdf_pool/publikationen/book_climate_changes_security_lampalzer_hainzl_web.pdf