22.12.2020 - PIK News: Traditionally, seasonal rainfalls in Southern Tanzania begin in the second or third week of November. But this year, the start of the monsoon (or Msimu in the Swahili language) season was delayed to December 10th, as PIK researcher Elena Surovyatkina correctly predicted in October. This has potentially serious consequences for the country, in which the agricultural sector accounts for roughly a third of its Gross Domestic Product.
According to a new and unique forecast method developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) isolated rainfalls will alternate with dry spells until December 31, followed by continuous rainfall starting on January, 1, 2021. Eventually the Msimu rainfalls are going to advance further to the south moving over South Africa, becoming more intense in the process as Surovyatkina explains: “There are currently two anticyclones at work: one in the South Atlantic and another in the South Indian Ocean. Together they fuel the Msimu rains in Africa, which provide vital moisture flows to South Africa.”
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