PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer on the German Climate Protection Programme

“The Climate Protection Programme contains new and additional measures designed to bring about further emission reductions by 2030, to avert the impending failure to meet our targets. However, it is questionable whether they sufficiently address the fundamental challenge of restructuring our fossil-fuel-dependent capital stock.”

“We see insufficient emission reductions and the risk of missing targets, particularly in the transport and buildings sectors. This is partly self-inflicted. There are not enough credible policy instruments that provide clear incentives to switch to sustainable and increasingly cost-effective climate protection technologies, such as electric cars or heat pumps.”

“According to our calculations, the Building Modernisation Act will result in emissions being significantly higher – by a total of 16 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents until 2030 and by as much as 230 million tonnes in the period to 2040 – than would have been expected under the previous legal framework. It creates further technological and economic path dependencies. These could be mitigated by reducing the electricity tax and by imposing investment levies on newly installed boilers.”

“The delayed introduction of the second EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the watering down of fleet limits for car producers make Germany and Europe even more dependent on oil and gas imports. Germany currently spends 80 billion euros on fossil fuel imports annually. This generates significant follow-on costs: the substantial expenditure on the rescue packages from the last energy crisis – well over 100 billion euros – still needs to be paid off.”

“We must now resolutely drive forward the expansion of renewable energies and the electrification to achieve a cost-effective transition. We can rely on our European framework in this regard. The European climate targets will only be achieved with Germany’s involvement. Through European cooperation, for example in emissions trading, but also through our collective participation in gas and oil markets, we have great opportunities for effective and cost-efficient climate protection.”