Dr Matthias Mengel

Deputy Head of Research Department
Mengel

Matthias Mengel serves as Deputy Head of Research Department 3 "Transformation Pathways" and leads the Research Group on "Data-centric Modeling of Cross-sectoral Climate Impacts". He is member of the Cross-sectoral Science Board of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP).

Before his transition to modeling climate impacts within the ISIMIP team, he worked on Antarctic ice sheet dynamics and sea level change. He touched these topics during his PhD earned at Potsdam University in 2015 and during his AXA Postdoctoral fellowship 2016-2018. His new research explores data-driven approaches to better constrain the impacts of climate change on our societies. This includes methodological advance for the attribution of observed impacts of climate change. Sea level rise and its impacts remain a focus of his research. In 2013, he joined the Polarstern expedition ANT-XXIX/3 to the Antarctic Weddel sea. He stayed a year abroad during his studies at the University of Nairobi in Kenya.

Contact

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2460
matthias.mengel[at]pik-potsdam.de
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam

ORCID

Currently

Deputy Head of Research Department 3, "Transformation Pathways"

Group leader: "Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts"

2018-2019

Postdoctoral researcher, ISIMIP group, PIK Potsdam

2016-2018

AXA Postdoctoral research fellow with Anders Levermann (PIK, Potsdam) and David Holland (New York University, USA)

2011-2015

PhD in Climate Physics (Dr. rer. nat.) with Anders Levermann at PIK Potsdam and University of Potsdam
Topic: "Forcing Earth's sea level: instabilities and linear responses"

2010

Diplom (M.Sc.) Topic: "Stability of the Subpolar Gyre in a Coarse Resolution Model"

2007-2009

Studies of Physics, Free University Berlin

2006/2007

Year Abroad at the University of Nairobi, Kenya

2004-2006

Studies of Physics, Free University Berlin

Scholarships

Postdoctoral research fellowship from AXA research fund

PhD scholarship awarded by Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt

Scholarship awarded by Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes

Scholarship from German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for Year Abroad

ORCID

Google scholar

Peer Reviewed Articles

2024

Frieler, Katja, Volkholz, Jan, Lange, Stefan, Schewe, Jacob, Mengel, Matthias, Rivas López, María del Rocío, Otto, Christian, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Malle, Johanna T., Treu, Simon, Menz, Christoph, Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl S., Petrik, Colleen M., Eddy, Tyler D., Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Novaglio, Camilla, Rousseau, Yannick, Watson, Reg A., Stock, Charles, Liu, Xiao, Heneghan, Ryan, Tittensor, Derek, Maury, Olivier, Büchner, Matthias, Vogt, Thomas, Wang, Tingting, Sun, Fubao, Sauer, Inga, Koch, Johannes, Vanderkelen, Inne, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Rabin, Sam, Klar, Jochen, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, Lasslop, Gitta, Chadburn, Sarah, Burke, Eleanor, Gallego-Sala, Angela, Smith, Noah, Chang, Jinfeng, Hantson, Stijn, Burton, Chantelle, Gädeke, Anne, Li, Fang, Gosling, Simon N., Müller Schmied, Hannes, Hattermann, Fred Fokko, Wang, Jida, Yao, Fangfang, Hickler, Thomas, Marcé, Rafael, Pierson, Don, Thiery, Wim, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, Ladwig, Robert, Ayala-Zamora, Ana Isabel, Forrest, Matthew, Bechtold, Michel (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development. 17(1) 1-51. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024

2023

Muis, Sanne, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., Á. Antolínez, José A., Dullaart, Job C., Duong, Trang Minh, Erikson, Li, Haarsma, Rein J., Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui, Mengel, Matthias, Le Bars, Dewi, O’Neill, Andrea, Ranasinghe, Roshanka, Roberts, Malcolm J., Verlaan, Martin, Ward, Philip J., Yan, Kun (2023). Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models. Earth's Future. 11(9) -. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479

Bauer, Nicolas, Keller, David P., Garbe, Julius, Karstens, Kristine, Piontek, Franziska, von Bloh, Werner, Thiery, Wim, Zeitz, Maria, Mengel, Matthias, Strefler, Jessica, Thonicke, Kirsten, Winkelmann, Ricarda (2023). Corrigendum: Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time (2023 Environ. Res. Lett.18 054015). Environmental Research Letters. 18(8) -. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace270

Paprotny, Dominik, Mengel, Matthias (2023). Population, land use and economic exposure estimates for Europe at 100 m resolution from 1870 to 2020. Scientific Data. 10() -. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02282-0

Bauer, Nicolas, Keller, David P., Garbe, Julius, Karstens, Kristine, Piontek, Franziska, von Bloh, Werner, Thiery, Wim, Zeitz, Maria, Mengel, Matthias, Strefler, Jessica, Thonicke, Kirsten, Winkelmann, Ricarda (2023). Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time. Environmental Research Letters. 18() -. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83

2022

Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Mengel, Matthias, Nicholls, Robert J. (2022). Understanding the Drivers of Coastal Flood Exposure and Risk From 1860 to 2100. Earth's Future. 10(12) -. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002584

Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado, D., Woolway, R. I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Schewe, Jacob, Zhao, Fang, Frieler, Katja, Mengel, Matthias, Bogomolov, V. Y., Bouffard, D., Couture, R.-M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Gal, G., Guo, M., Janssen, A. B. G., Kirillin, G., Ladwig, R., Magee, M., Moore, T., Perroud, M., Piccolroaz, S., Raaman Vinnaa, L., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Yao, H., Adrian, R., Allan, M., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Atkins, K., Boegman, L., Carey, C., Christianson, K., de Eyto, E., DeGasperi, C., Grechushnikova, M., Hejzlar, J., Joehnk, K., Jones, I. D., Laas, A., Mackay, E. B., Mammarella, I., Markensten, H., McBride, C., Özkundakci, D., Potes, M., Rinke, K., Robertson, D., Rusak, J., Salgado, R., van den Linden, L., Verburg, P., Wain, D., Ward, N. K., Wollrab, S., Zdorovennova, G. (2022). A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector. Geoscientific Model Development. 15(11) 4597-4623. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022

Heinicke, Stefanie, Frieler, Katja, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Mengel, Matthias (2022). Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves. Environmental Research Letters. 17(4) -. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e

2021

Thiery, By Wim, Lange, Stefan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Andrijevic, Marina, Frieler, Katja, Emanuel, Kerry, Geiger, Tobias, Bresch, David N., Zhao, Fang, Willner, Sven, Büchner, Matthias, Volkholz, Jan, Bauer, Nicolas, Chang, Jinfeng, Ciais, Philippe, Dury, Marie, François, Louis, Grillakis, Manolis, Gosling, Simon N., Hanasaki, Naota, Hickler, Thomas, Huber, Veronika, Ito, Akihiko, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Khabarov, Nikolay, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Liu, Wenfeng, Lutz, Wolfgang, Mengel, Matthias, Müller, Christoph, Ostberg, Sebastian, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Stacke, Tobias, Wada, Yoshihide (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science. 374(6564) 158-160. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339

Mengel, Matthias, Treu, Simon, Lange, Stefan, Frieler, Katja (2021). ATTRICI v1.1 - counterfactual climate for impact attribution. Geoscientific Model Development. 14(8) 5269-5284. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento, Lavigne, E., Correa, P. Matus, Ortega, N. Valdes, Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. Hurtado, Valencia, C. De La Cruz, Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, Matthias, Huber, Veronika, Gasparrini, A. (2021). The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature Climate Change. 11(6) 492-500. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

2019

Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Brondex, J., Cornford, S., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Lowry, D., Mengel, Matthias, Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reerink, T. J., Reese, R., Rodehacke, C. B., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., Sutter, J., Van Breedam, J., Wal, R. S. W. van de, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhang, T. (2019). initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere. 13(5) 1441-1471. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019

Nauels, A., Gütschow, Johannes, Mengel, Matthias, Meinshausen, Malte, Clark, P. U., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (2019). Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). 116(47) 23487-23492. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907461116

Feldmann, Johannes, Levermann, Anders, Mengel, Matthias (2019). Stabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by surface mass deposition. Science Advances. 5(7) -. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw4132

2018

Mengel, Matthias, Nauels, A., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (2018). Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. Nature Communications. 9() -. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8

Reese, Ronja, Albrecht, Torsten, Mengel, Matthias, Asay-Davis, Xylar S., Winkelmann, Ricarda (2018). Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO. The Cryosphere. 12(6) 1969-1985. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018

Pfleiderer, Peter, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Mengel, Matthias, Rogelj, J. (2018). Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks. Environmental Research Letters. 13(6) -. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac319

Gieseke, R., Willner, S. N., Mengel, Matthias (2018). Pymagicc: A Python wrapper for the simple climate model MAGICC. The Journal of Open Source Software. 3(22)(516) -. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.00516

2017

Reyer, Christopher P. O., Otto, Ilona M., Adams, S., Albrecht, Torsten, Baarsch, F., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, Dim, Eden, Alexander, Ludi, E., Marcus, R., Mengel, Matthias, Mosello, B., Robinson, Alexander, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Serdeczny, O., Stagl, Judith C. (2017). Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Regional Environmental Change. 17(6) 1639-1650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z

Frieler, Katja, Lange, Stefan, Piontek, Franziska, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Schewe, Jacob, Warszawski, Lila, Zhao, Fang, Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, Tobias, Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, Matthias, Murakami, D., Ostberg, Sebastian, Popp, Alexander, Riva, R., Stevanović, Miodrag, Suzuki, T., Volkholz, Jan, Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, Fred Fokko, Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, Veronika, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Krysanova, Valentina, Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., Vliet, M. van, Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, H., Yamagata, Y. (2017). Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development. 10(12) 4321-4345. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Waha, Katharina, Krummenauer, Linda, Adams, S., Aich, Valentin, Baarsch, Florent, Coumou, Dim, Fader, M., Hoff, Holger, Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., Mengel, Matthias, Otto, Ilona M., Perrette, Mahé, Rocha, M., Robinson, Alexander, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (2017). Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Regional Environmental Change. 17(6) 1623-1638. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2

Nauels, A., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, Matthias (2017). Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters. 12(114002) -. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6

Reyer, Christopher P. O., Adams, S., Albrecht, Torsten, Baarsch, F., Boit, Alice, Trujillo, N. C., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, Dim, Eden, Alexander, Fernandes, E., Langerwisch, Fanny, Marcus, R., Mengel, Matthias, Mira-Salama, D., Perette, Mahé, Pereznieto, P., Rammig, Anja, Reinhardt, Julia, Robinson, Alexander, Rocha, M., Sakschewski, Boris, Schaeffer, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Serdeczny, O., Thonicke, Kirsten (2017). Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development. Regional Environmental Change. 17(6) 1601-1621. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6

Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, Matthias, Lorbacher, K., Wigley, T. M. L. (2017). Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0. Geoscientific Model Development. 10(6) 2495-2524. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017

2016

Mengel, Matthias, Levermann, Anders, Frieler, Katja, Robinson, Alexander, Marzeion, Ben, Winkelmann, Ricarda (2016). Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). 113(10) 2597-2602. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500515113

Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, Jacob, Frieler, Katja, Mengel, Matthias, Hare, W., Schaeffer, M. (2016). Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth System Dynamics. 7(2) 327-351. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016

Frieler, Katja, Mengel, Matthias, Levermann, Anders (2016). Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica. Earth System Dynamics. 7(1) 203-210. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016

Mengel, Matthias, Feldmann, Johannes, Levermann, Anders (2016). Linear sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of major West Antarctic ice basin. Nature Climate Change. 6(1) 71-74. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2808

2014

Mengel, Matthias, Levermann, Anders (2014). Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica. Nature Climate Change. 4(6) 451-455. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2226

Piontek, Franziska, Müller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Jesus Colón-González, F. de, Flörke, M., Folbert, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, Katja, Friend, A. D., Gosling, S. N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M. R., Masaki, Y., Mengel, Matthias, Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schewe, Jacob, Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z. D., Tompkins, A. M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D., Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2014). Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). 111(9) 3233-3238. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222471110

Levermann, Anders, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Nowicki, S., Fastook, J. L., Frieler, Katja, Greve, R., Hellmer, H. H., Martin, M. A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, Matthias, Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Sato, T., Timmermann, R., Lang, W. L., Bindschadler, R. A. (2014). Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models. Earth System Dynamics. 5(2) 271-293. https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-1117-2013

2013

Frieler, Katja, Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, Matthias, Lebek, K., Donner, S. D., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2013). Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nature Climate Change. 3(2) 165-170. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1674

2012

Frieler, Katja, Meinshausen, M., Mengel, Matthias, Braun, N., Hare, W. (2012). A scaling approach to probabilistic assessment of regional climate change. Journal of Climate. 25(9) 3117-3144. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1

Mengel, Matthias, Levermann, Anders, Schleussner, C.-F., Born, A. (2012). Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model. Earth System Dynamics. 3(2) 189-197. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-189-2012



Software

2018

Gieseke, Robert, Willner, Sven, Mengel, Matthias (2018). openclimatedata/pymagicc: v1.0.2. CERN / Zenodo.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1165153

Gieseke, Robert, Lewis, J., Willner, Sven, Nicholls, Z., Mengel, Matthias (2018). openclimatedata/pymagicc: v1.2.0. CERN / Zenodo.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1299493

Reese, Ronja, Albrecht, Torsten, Mengel, Matthias, Winkelmann, Ricarda, & other PISM authors (2018). pism/pik/pico_dev: PISM+PICO version as used in Reese et al. The Cryosphere publication. CERN / Zenodo.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1248799

Gieseke, Robert, Willner, Sven, Mengel, Matthias, Lewis, J. (2018). openclimatedata/pymagicc: v1.1.0. CERN / Zenodo.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1254844