Recent publications

In press 

• Flores, Bernardo M., Montoya, Encarni, Sakschewski, Boris, Nascimento, Nathália, Staal, Arie, Betts, Richard, Lapola, David M., Esquível-Muelbert, Adriane, Jakovac, Catarina, Nobre, Carlos A., Levis, Carolina, Oliveira, Rafael S., Borma, Laura S., Nian, Da, Boers, Niklas, Hecht, Susanna B., Steege, Hans ter, Arieira, Julia, Lucas, Isabella L., Berenguer, Erika, Marengo, José A., Gatti, Luciana V., Mattos, Caio R. C., Hirota, Marina,
  Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,
  Nature, in press (2024).

• Rockström, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, M.A. Martin, L. Wang-Erlandsson, K. Richardson,

• The science on planetary boundaries as a guide to humanity's future on Earth,
  Nature Reviews in Earth & Environment, in press (2024).

• J.P. Everall, J.F. Donges, I.M Otto,
  The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority,
  Earth System Dynamics, in press (2024)

2024

• Roger Creel, Jacqueline Austermann, Robert Kopp, Nicole Khan, Torsten Albrecht, Jonathan Kingslake,
  Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the Holocene,
  Nature Communications (2024).

• Hélène Seroussi, Tyler Pelle, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Xylar Asay-Davis, Jean-Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Thomas Zwinger,
  Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble,
  Earth's Future, 12, 9, e2024EF004561 (2024).
  https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561

• Prof Joyeeta Gupta PhD, Prof Xuemei Bai PhD, Prof Diana M Liverman PhD, Prof Johan Rockström PhD, Prof Dahe Qin PhD, Ben Stewart-Koster PhD, Juan C Rocha PhD, Lisa Jacobson MSc, Jesse F Abrams PhD, Lauren S Andersen PhD, David I Armstrong McKay PhD, Prof Govindasamy Bala PhD, Prof Stuart E Bunn PhD, Daniel Ciobanu MSc, Fabrice DeClerck PhD, Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD, Lauren Gifford PhD, Prof Christopher Gordon PhD, Syezlin Hasan PhD, Prof Norichika Kanie PhD, Prof Timothy M Lenton PhD, Sina Loriani PhD, Awaz Mohamed PhD x, Prof Nebojsa Nakicenovic PhD, David Obura PhD, Daniel Ospina MSc, Klaudia Prodani MSc, Crelis Rammelt PhD, Boris Sakschewski PhD, Joeri Scholtens PhD, Thejna Tharammal PhD r, Prof Detlef van Vuuren PhD aa ab, Prof Peter H Verburg PhD ac ad, Prof Ricarda Winkelmann PhD e g, Caroline Zimm PhD y, Prof Elena Bennett PhD, Anders Bjørn PhD, Prof Stefan Bringezu PhD, Wendy J Broadgate PhD, Prof Harriet Bulkeley PhD, Prof Beatrice Crona PhD, Pamela A Green ME, Holger Hoff PhD, Lei Huang PhD, Prof Margot Hurlbert PhD, Cristina Y A Inoue PhD, Prof Şiir Kılkış PhD, Steven J Lade PhD, Prof Jianguo Liu PhD, Imran Nadeem PhD, Christopher Ndehedehe PhD, Prof Chukwumerije Okereke PhD, Prof Ilona M Otto PhD, Simona Pedde PhD, Laura Pereira PhD, Lena Schulte-Uebbing PhD, J David Tàbara PhD, Prof Wim de Vries PhD, Prof Gail Whiteman PhD, Prof Cunde Xiao PhD, Xinwu Xu PhD, Noelia Zafra-Calvo PhD, Prof Xin Zhang PhD, Paola Fezzigna MSc, Giuliana Gentile MSc,
  A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations,
  The Lancet Planetary Health, 8, 10, e813-e873 (2024).
  https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00042-1

• S. Loriani, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann,
  Wo durch den Klimawandel Lebensräume für die Menschen verschwinden,
  Lozán, J. L., Graßl, H., Kasang, D., Quante, M., Sillmann, J. (Eds.), Warnsignal Klima: Herausforderung Wetterextreme, Hamburg: Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen, 154-159 (2024).

• Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears,
  Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization,
  Earth System Dynamics, 15, 5, 1179-1206 (2024).
  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024

• Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann,
  Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model, 
  The Cryosphere, 18, 9, 4233-4255.
  https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024

1. Torsten Albrecht, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge,
   PISM-VILMA glacial cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coupled to the solid Earth and global sea level [dataset] (2024).
   https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.972528.

2. Torsten Albrecht,
   PISM version as used in Albrecht et al. (TC, 2024) publication. [software].
   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12730724.

• V. Pedersen, N. Gomez, J. X. Mitrovica, G. Jungdal-Olesen, J. L. Andersen, J. Garbe, A. Aschwanden, R. Winkelmann,
  Earth's hypsometry and what it tells us about global sea level,
  Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 648, 119071 (2024 online).
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2024.119071

• J. Rockström, L. Kotzé, S. Milutinovic, F. Biermann, V. Brovkin, J.F. Donges, J. Ebbesson, D. French, J. Gupta, R.E. Kim, T.M. Lenton, D. Lenzi, N. Nakicenovic, B. Neumann, F. Schuppert, R. Winkelmann, K. Bosselmann, C. Folke, W. Lucht, D. Schlosberg, K. Richardson, W. Steffen,

  The planetary commons: a new paradigm for safeguarding Earth regulating systems in the Anthropocene,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 21, e2301531121 (2024),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2301531121.
  

• N. Wunderling, A. von der Heydt, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C.H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R.M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J.T. Bruun, C.M. Chiessi, H.K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J.F. Donges, S.K.J. Falkena, A.K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N.J. Steinert, M. Willeit,
  Climate tipping points and interactions: A review,
  Earth System Dynamics 15, 41–74 (2024),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024,
  EGUsphere [preprint], DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1576.
  
  
• V. Benson, J.F. Donges, N. Boers, M. Hirota, A. Morr, A. Staal, J. Vollmer, N. Wunderling,
  Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances,
  Environmental Research Letters 19, 024029 (2024),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80,
  preprint: arXiv:2310.16021 [physics.ao-ph].
  
  
• F. Schunck, M. Wiedermann, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A dynamic network model of societal complexity and resilience inspired by Tainter's theory of collapse,
  Entropy 26, 98 (2024),
  DOI: 10.3390/e26020098,
  preprint arXiv.org/abs/2102.06698 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn, J.F. Donges,
  Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement,
  Global Sustainability, online first (2024),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2024.1.
  
  
• M. Bustamante, J. Roy, D. Ospina, ... N. Wunderling,  ... et al.,
  Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024,
  Global Sustainability, online first and in press (2023),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2023.25.
  
  
• A. Staal, J. Theeuwen, L. Wang-Erlandsson, N. Wunderling, S. Dekker,
  Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of reforestation,
  Global Change Biology, online first (2024).
  
  
• Lenton, T. M., Abrams, J. F., Bartsch, A., Bathiany, S., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Conversi, A., Cunliffe, A. M., Hebden, S., Lavergne, T., Poulter, B., Shepherd, A., Smith, T., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., and Boers, N.,
  Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales,
  Nature Communications 15, 343 (2024),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w.

2023

• T.M. Lenton, D. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges,
  M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, C. Zimm, S.R. Smith, J. Buxton, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J.
  Dyke (eds.),
  J.F. Donges, J. Garbe, A.K. Klose, S. Loriani, B. Sakschewski, R. Winkelmann, N. Wunderling (contributing ERAlab authors),
  The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 (2023).
  University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
  
  
• P.S. Jørgensen, R.E. V. Jansen, D.I. Avila Ortega, L. Wang Erlandsson, J.F. Donges, H. Österblom, P. Olsson, M. Nyström, S. Lade, T. Hahn, C. Folke, G.D. Peterson, A.-S. Crépin,
  Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability,
  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 379, online first (2024),
  DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0261.
  
  
• P. Schlosser, J. Rockström, C. Edwards,  P. Mirazo, A. Heilemann, N.H. Kitzmann, S.L. Krobjinski,
  Accelerating transformations for a just, sustainable future: 10 ‘Must Haves.’,
  Global Sustainability 6, e17 ( 2023).
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2023.14.
  
  
  
  
• B. Stewart-Koster, S.E. Bunn, P. Green, C. Ndehedehe, L.S. Andersen, D.I. Armstrong McKay, X. Bai, F. DeClerck, K.L. Ebi, C. Gordon, J. Gupta, S. Hasan, L. Jacobson, S.J. Lade, D. Liverman, S. Loriani, A. Mohamed, N. Nakicenovic, D. Obura, D. Qin, C. Rammelt, J.C. Rocha, J. Rockström, P.H. Verburg, C. Zimm,
  Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water,
  Nature Sustainability (2023), online first,
  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w.
  
  

• Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Reese, R., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P. M.,
  The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry,
  The Cryosphere (2023),
  DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
  * The first three authors contributed equally to this work.

• Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., and Winkelmann, R.,
  The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded,
  The Cryosphere (2023),
  DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023

• Garbe, J., Zeitz, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., and Winkelmann, R.,
  The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple,
  The Cryosphere (2023),
  https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023

  
  
• J.F. Abrams,  C. Huntingford,  M.S. Williamson,  D.I. Armstrong McKay,  C.A. Boulton,  J.E. Buxton,  B. Sakschewski,  S. Loriani,  C. Zimm,  R. Winkelmann,  T.M. Lenton,
  Committed global warming risks triggering multiple climate tipping points,
  Earth's Future 11, e2022EF003250 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003250.
   
• J.M. Anderies, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, J. Heitzig, J. Rockström,
  A modeling framework for World-Earth System resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points,
  Environmental Research Letters 18, 095001 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace91d,
  preprint arXiv:2204.04471 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht, J. Bendtsen, S.E. Cornell, J.F. Donges, M. Drüke, I. Fetzer, W. von Bloh,  D. Nogues Bravo, G. Feulner, S. Fiedler, D. Gerten, T. Gleeson, G. Bala, M. Hoffmann, W. Huiskamp,  M. Kummu, C. Mohan, S. Petri, M. Porkka, S. Rahmstorf, S. Schaphoff, K. Thonicke, A. Tobian, V. Virkki, L. Wang-Erlandsson, L. Weber, J. Rockström,
  Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,
  Science Advances 9,eadh2458(2023),
  DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458,
  PIK press release.
  
  
• H. Mevenkamp, N. Wunderling, U. Batt, T. Carman, J.F. Donges, H. Gennet, S. Serbin, R. Winkelmann, E.S. Euskirchen,
  Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters,
  Environmental Research Letters 18, 084032 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace637.
  
  
• S. Perri, S. Levin, L. Hedin, N. Wunderling, A. Porporato, Socio-political feedback on the path to Net-Zero, One Earth, 6, 725–737, 2023.
  
  
• Obura, D. O., DeClerck, F., Verburg, P. H., Gupta, J., Abrams, J. F., Bai, X., ..., Rockström, J., Sakschewski, B., ... Winkelmann, R. & Zimm, C.,
  Achieving a nature-and people-positive future,
  One Earth, 6(2), 105-117 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.11.013.
  
  
• J. Breier, L. Schwarz, J.F. Donges, D. Gerten, J. Rockström,
  Regenerative agriculture for food security and ecological resilience: illustrating global biophysical and social spreading potentials,
  Earth4all deep-dive paper series, 13 (2023),
  DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.001.
  
  
• S. Bien, P. Schultz, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  Resilience basins of complex systems: an application to prosumer impacts on power grids,
  Chaos 33, 063148 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1063/5.0120891,
  preprint arXiv:2108.09474 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin, S.J. Lade, J.F.Abrams, L.S. Andersen, D.I. Armstrong McKay, X. Bai, G. Bala, S.E. Bunn, D. Ciobanu, F. DeClerck, K. Ebi, L. Gifford, C. Gordon, S. Hasan, N. Kanie, T.M.Lenton, S. Loriani, D.M. Liverman, A. Mohamed, N. Nakicenovic, D. Obura, D. Ospina, K. Prodani, C. Rammelt, B. Sakschewski, J. Scholtens, B. Stewart-Koster, T. Tharammal, D. van Vuuren, P.H. Verburg, R. Winkelmann, C. Zimm, E.M. Bennett, S. Bringezu, W. Broadgate, P. Green, L. Huang, L. Jacobson, C. Ndehedehe, S. Pedde, J. Rocha, M. Scheffer, L. Schulte-Uebbing, W. de Vries, C. Xiao, C. Xu, X. Xu, N. Zafra-Calvo, X. Zhang,
  Safe and just Earth System Boundaries,
  Nature, online first (2023),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8,
  PIK press release.
  
  
• Bauer, N., Keller, D. P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., and Winkelmann, R.,
  Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time,
  Environmental Research Letters 18, 054015 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83.
  
  
• T.M. Lenton, C. Xu, J.F. Abrams, A. Ghadiali, S. Loriani, B. Sakschewski, C. Zimm, K.L. Ebi, R.R. Dunn, J.-C. Svenning, M. Scheffer,
  Quantifying the human cost of global warming,
  Nature Sustainability 6, 1237–1247 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6,
  preprint bioRXiv, DOI: 10.1101/2022.06.07.495131.
  
  
• N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, J. Rockström, S. Loriani, D.I. Armstrong McKay, P.D.L. Ritchie, B. Sakschewski, J.F. Donges,
  Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model,
  Nature Climate Change 13, 75–82 (2023),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9,
  preprint ResearchSquare, DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1418830/v1.
  PIK press release.
  
  
• William J. Foster, Bethany J. Allen, Niklas H. Kitzmann, Jannes Münchmeyer, Tabea Rettelbach, James D. Witts, Rowan J. Whittle, Ekaterina Larina, Matthew E. Clapham and Alexander M. Dunhill,

  How predictable are mass extinction events?,
  Royal Society Open Science 10: 221507 (2023)
  DOI: 10.1098/rsos.221507

2022

• Martin, M. A., Boakye, E. A., Boyd, E., Broadgate, W., Bustamante, M., Canadell, J. G., …, Schwarz, L., ..., Zhao, Z. J. (2022),
  10 new insights in climate science 2022,
  Global Sustainability 5, e20 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.17.
  
  
• N. Wunderling*, F. Wolf*, O.A. Tuinenburg, A. Staal,
  Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth's moisture recycling hubs,
  Nature Communications 13, 6574 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34229-1,
  preprint ResearchSquare, DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1465755/v1.
  *These authors share the lead-authorship.
  
  
• Alonso, I., Alpigiani, C., Altschul, B., ... Loriani, S.,  et al.,
  Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map,
  EPJ Quantum Technol. 9, 30 (2022).
  DOI: 10.1140/epjqt/s40507-022-00147-w.
  
  
• William J. Foster, Georgy Ayzel, Jannes Münchmeyer, Tabea Rettelbach, Niklas H. Kitzmann, Terry T. Isson, Maria Mutti and Martin Aberhan,
  Machine learning identifies ecological selectivity patterns across the end-Permian mass extinction,
  Paleobiology 48(3), 357-371 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1017/pab.2022.1.
  
  
• D.I. Armstrong McKay, A. Staal, J.F. Abrams, R. Winkelmann, B. Sakschewski, S. Loriani, I. Fetzer, S.E. Cornell, J. Rockström, T.M. Lenton,
  Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points,
  Science 377, eabn7950 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950,
  PIK press release, PIK info desk on climate tipping points.
  
  
• N. Wunderling, A. Staal, B. Sakschewski, M. Hirota, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges, H.M.J. Barbosa*, R. Winkelmann*,
  Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 119 (32), e2120777119 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2120777119,
  *These authors jointly supervised this study.
  PIK press release.
  
  
• M. Zeitz, J.M. Haacker, J.F. Donges, T. Albrecht, R. Winkelmann,
  Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks,
  Earth System Dynamics 13, 1077–1096  (2022),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022,
  preprint: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, DOI: 10.5194/esd-2021-100.
  
  
• L.A. Tamberg, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems,
  Environmental Research Letters 17, 055005 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac60d9,
  Preprint arXiv:2007.05769 [physics.soc-ph] (2020).
  
  
• Foster, W., Ayzel, G., Münchmeyer, J., Rettelbach, T., Kitzmann, N., Isson, T., . . . Aberhan, M. (2022),
  Machine learning identifies ecological selectivity patterns across the end-Permian mass extinction,
  Paleobiology 48(3), 357–371 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1017/pab.2022.1.

• N.H. Kitzmann, P. Romanczuk, N. Wunderling,  J.F. Donges,
  Detecting contagious spreading of urban innovations on the global city network,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics 231, 1609–1624 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00470-4,
  preprint arXiv:2111.05709 [physics.soc-ph].

• R. Winkelmann*/J.F. Donges*/E.K. Smith*/M. Milkoreit*, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling, T.M. Lenton,
  Social tipping processes for climate action: a conceptual framework,
  Ecological Economics 192, 107242 (2022),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242,
  preprint arXiv:2010.04488 [physics.soc-ph],
  preprint SSRN:3708161,
  * shared lead-authorship.

2021

• A.K. Klose, N.Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?,
  Environmental Research Letters, 16, 125011 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955,
  preprint arXiv:2108.09550 [physics.geo-ph].
  
  
• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, S.E. Cornell, J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, S.J. Lade, and M. Schlüter,
  Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops,
  Earth System Dynamics 12, 1115–1137 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021.
  
  
• O. Chu, J.F. Donges, G. Pop-Eleches, G.B. Robertson,
  The microdynamics of spatial polarization: a model and an application to survey data from Ukraine,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 118(50), e2104194118 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2104194118.
  
  
• N. Marwan, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner, D. Eroglu,
  Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records,
  Quaternary Science Reviews 274, 107245 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107245.
• M.A. Martin, O. Alcaraz Sendra, A. Bastos, N. Bauer, C. Bertram , T. Blenckner , K. Bowen, P.M. Brando, T. Brodie Rudolph, M. Büchs, M. Bustamante, D. Chen, H. Cleugh, P. Dasgupta, F. Denton, J.F. Donges, F. Kwabena Donkor, H. Duan, C.M. Duarte, K.L. Ebi, C.M.  Edwards, A. Engel, E. Fisher, S. Fuss, J. Gaertner, A. Gettelman,  C.A.J. Girardin, N.R. Golledge, J.F. Green, M.R. Grose, M. Hashizume, S. Hebden, H. Hepach, M. Hirota, H.-H. Hsu, S. Kojima, S. Lele, S. Lorek, H.K. Lotze, H.D. Matthews, D. McCauley, D. Mebratu, N. Mengis, R.H. Nolan, E. Pihl, S. Rahmstorf,  A. Redman, C.E. Reid, J. Rockström, J. Rogelj, M. Saunois, L. Sayer, P. Schlosser, G.B. Sioen, J.H. Spangenberg, D. Stammer, T.N.S. Sterner, N. Stevens, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, R. Winkelmann, J. Woodcock,
  Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan,
  Global Sustainability, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.25.
  
  
• J.F. Donges*/J. Lochner*, N. Kitzmann, J. Heitzig, S. Lehmann, M. Wiedermann, J. Vollmer,
  Dose-response functions and surrogate data models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00279-7,
  preprint arxiv.org/abs/2103.09496 [physics.soc-ph],
  * shared lead authorship.
  
  
• V. Brovkin, E. Brook, J.H. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton,  R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-­Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.-­F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderverken, Z. Yu,
  Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system,
  Nature Geoscience, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5.
  
  
• J. Kohler, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Vollmer,
  Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit,
  Physical Review E, 104(10), 044301 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.104.044301,
  preprint arXiv:2104.09299 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• J. Bak-Coleman, M. Alfano, W. Barfuss, C. Bergstrom, M.A. Centeno, I.D. Couzin, J.F. Donges, M. Galesic, A. Gersick, J. Jacquet, A. Kao, R.E. Moran, P. Romanczuk, D.I. Rubenstein, K. Tombak, J.J. Van Bavel, E.U. Weber,
  Stewardship of global collective behavior,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 118, e2025764118 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025764118.
  
  
• N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4,
  preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• M. Drüke, W. von Bloh, B. Sakschewski, N. Wunderling, S. Petri, M. Cardoso, H.M.J. Barbosa, K. Thonicke,
  Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2.
  
  
• N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R. Winkelmann,
  Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming,
  Earth System Dynamics 12, 601–619 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,
  Discussion paper: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-18.
  
  
• S.H.R. Rosier, R. Reese, J.F. Donges, J. De Rydt, G.H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann,
  The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica,
  The Cryosphere 15, 1501–1516 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021.
  
  
• Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Lenton, T. M., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., ... & Winkelmann, R.,
  Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet,
  Earth's Future 9(4), e2020EF001866 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001866.

2020

• N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
  Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades,
  New Journal of Physics 22, 123031 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a,
  Preprint arXiv:2009.09902 [physics.ao-ph] (2020).
  
  
• N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann,
  Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice,
  Nature Communications 11, 5177 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3,
  PIK press release.
  
  
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J.F. Donges, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
  The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet,
  Nature 585, 538–544, (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5.
  
  
• M. Wiedermann, E.K. Smith, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping,
  Nature Scientific Reports 10, 11202 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6,
  preprint arXiv:1911.04126 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• A.K. Klose, V. Karle, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate,
  Royal Society Open Science 7, 200599 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
  preprint arXiv:1910.12042 [physics.geo-ph].
  
  
• J.-D. Mathias, M. Debeljak, G. Deffuant, A. Diemer, F. Dierickx, J.F. Donges, G. Gladkykh, J. Heitzig, G. Holtz, W. Obergassel, F. Pellaud, A. Sánchez, A. Trajanov, N. Videira,
  Grounding social foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of climate change,
  Earth's Future 8, e2020EF001573 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001573.
  
  
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, V.V. Vasconcelos, J. Kurths, S.A. Levin,
  Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117, 12915–12922 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117,
  PIK news piece, SRC news piece.
  
  
• J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig*, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J.A. Kassel, T. Kittel, J.J. Kolb, T. Kolster, F. Müller-Hansen, I.M. Otto, K.B. Zimmerer, and W. Lucht,
  Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 395–413 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship.
  
  
• J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges,
  Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks,
  Physical Review E 101, 042311 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311,
  preprint arXiv:1905.05476 [physics.soc-ph].
  
  
• N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O.A. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: linking micro- to macro-scales,
  Chaos 30, 043129 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827,
  preprint arXiv:2001.02169 [nlin.AO],
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  AIP Scilight: Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions.
  
  
• T. Ide, C. Fröhlich, J.F. Donges,
  The Economic, Political, and Social Implications of Environmental Crises,
  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) 101, E364–E367 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0257.1.
  
  
• T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner,
  Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk,
  Global Environmental Change 62, 102063 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063.
  
  
• M. Mahecha, F. Gans, G. Brandt, R. Christiansen, S.E. Cornell, N. Fomferra, G. Kraemer, J. Peters, G. Camps-Valls, J.F. Donges, W. Dorigo, L. Estupinan-Suarez, V. Gutierrez-Velez, M. Gutwin, M. Jung, M. Londono, D. Miralles, P. Papastefanou, M. Reichstein,
  Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 201–234 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-201-2020.
  
  
• S.J. Lade, W. Steffen, W. de Vries, S.R. Carpenter, J.F. Donges, D. Gerten, H. Hoff, T. Newbold, K. Richardson, J. Rockström,
  Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions,
  Nature Sustainability 3, 119–128 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4,
  PIK press release, SRC press release.
  
  
• I.M. Otto, J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 117, 10631–10632 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002648117.
  
  
• I.M. Otto*, J.F. Donges*, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, S. Doe, A. Lenferna, M. McCaffrey, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS), 201900577 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  PIK press release, SRC news, New York Times.

2019

• F.M. Strnad, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig,
  Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies,
  Chaos 29, 123122 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5124673,
  preprint arXiv:1908.05567 [physics.soc-ph] [cs.LG],
  PIK news item.
  
  
• K. Kornhuber, D. Coumou, E. Vogel, C. Lesk, J.F. Donges, J. Lehmann, R. Horton,
  Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions,
  Nature Climate Change 10, 48–53 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z,
  PIK press release.
  
  

• S.J. Lade, J. Norberg, J.M. Anderies, C. Beer, S.E. Cornell, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, T. Gasser, K. Richardson, J. Rockström, W. Steffen,
  Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change,
  Global Sustainability 2, e21 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.18.

• J. Randers, J. Rockström, P.-E. Stoknes, U. Goluke, D. Collste, S.E. Cornell, and J.F. Donges,
  Achieving the 17 sustainable development goals within 9 planetary boundaries,
  Global Sustainability 2, e24 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.22,
  Preprint: EarthArXiv:10.31223/osf.io/xwevb,
  SRC news item and video.

• I.M. Otto, M. Wiedermann, R. Cremades, J.F. Donges, C. Auer, W. Lucht,
  Human agency in the Anthropocene,
  Ecological Economics 167, 106463 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463.
  
  
• Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games,
  Physical Review E 99, 043305 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305,
  PRE editor's choice,
  PIK news release: New method to better understand much-employed self-learning Artificial Intelligence,
  Preprint: arXiv:1809.07225.
  
  
• C. Ciemer, N. Boers, M. Hirota, J. Kurths, F. Müller-Hansen, R.S. Oliveira, R. Winkelmann,
  Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall,
  Nature Geoscience 12 (2019), 174–179,
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0312-z,
  PIK Press release.

• W. Steffen, J. Rockström, K. Richardson, T.M. Lenton, C. Folke, D. Liverman, C.P. Summerhayes, A.D. Barnosky, S.E. Cornell, M. Crucifix, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, S.J. Lade, M. Scheffer, R. Winkelmann, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 115(33), 8252-8259 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115,
  PIK press release,
  SRC press release.
  
  
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S.J. Lade, and J. Kurths,
  When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe,
  Nature Communications 9, 2354 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z,
  Official PIK press release: better safe than sorry,
  Official SRC news release.
  
  
• J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges,
  A thought experiment on sustainable management of the Earth system,
  Sustainability 10(6), 1947 (2018),
  DOI: 10.3390/su10061947.
  
  
• M. Milkoreit, J. Hodbod, J. Baggio, K. Benessaiah, R. Calderon Contreras, J.F. Donges, J.-D. Mathias, J. Rocha, M. Schoon, and S. Werners,
  Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review,
  Environmental Research Letters 13, 033005 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75.
  
  

• F. Müller-Hansen, M. Schlüter, M. Mäs, J.F. Donges, J.J. Kolb, K. Thonicke, and J. Heitzig,
  Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches,
  Earth System Dynamics 8, 977-1007 (2017),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017,
  Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2017, DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-18.

• J.F. Donges*, R. Winkelmann*, W. Lucht, S.E. Cornell, J.G. Dyke, J. Rockström, J. Heitzig, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Closing the loop: reconnecting human dynamics to Earth system science,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(2), 151-157 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019617725537,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre).

• J.F. Donges and W. Barfuss,
  From math to metaphors and back again. Social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective,
  GAIA 26(S1), 182–190 (2017),
  DOI: 10.14512/gaia.26.S1.5.

• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, F. Müller-Hansen, and W. Steffen,
  The Technosphere in Earth system analysis: a coevolutionary perspective,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(1), 23-33 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019616676608,
  Preprint: arxiv:1704.06476 [physics.soc-ph].
• A. Ganopolski, R. Winkelmann, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Critical insolation - CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception,
  Nature 529 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nature16494.

• A. Levermann & R. Winkelmann,
  A simple equation for the melt-elevation feedback of ice sheets,
  The Cryosphere 10 (2016), DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016.
  
  
• H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Rahmstorf, R. Winkelmann,
  Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris,
  Nature Climate Change 6 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3013.
  
  
• C.-F. Schleussner*, J.F. Donges*, D.A. Engemann*, and A. Levermann,
  Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure,
  Nature Scientific Reports 6, 30790 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/srep30790,
  * The first three authors share the lead authorship.
  
  
• R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, K. Caldeira,
  Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet,
  Science Advances 1 (2015), DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500589.
  
  
• R. Winkelmann, M.A. Martin, M. Haseloff, T. Albrecht, E. Bueler, C. Khroulev, A. Levermann,
  The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), Part 1: Model description,
  The Cryosphere 5 (2011), 715-726, DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-715-2011.