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14412 Potsdam
ORCID
Since 2021 Senior Scientist
investigating past and future climate trajectories with the CLIMBER-X Earth system model, contributing to the German Climate Modeling Initiative PalMod and the Horizon Europe Past2Future project.
2017-2020 Postdoctoral Researcher
on modelling the last glacial cycle with the CLIMBER-X Earth system model of intermediate complexity as part of the German Climate Modeling Initiative PalMod Phase I.
2014-2016 Postdoctoral Researcher
on the major transitions in Quaternary climate, including the intensification of northern Hemisphere glaciation (Pliocene-Pleistocene transition at around 2.7 Million years ago) and the transition from 40 kyr (1kyr = 1000 years) to 100 kyr dominated glacial cycles (mid-Pleistocene revolution, around 1 Million year ago). The project was funded by the DFG.
2011-2014 Ph.D. in Physics (Dr. rer. nat.)
at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and at the University of Potsdam focused on the analysis and quantification of vegetation-climate and carbon-cycle feedbacks using the CLIMBER Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC). My PhD work was part of the GREENCYCLES II Initial Training Network on global biosphere-climate interactions funded by the Marie Curie 7th Framework Programme.
2005-2010 Graduation in Physics
at the University of Bologna with a focus climate physics and meteorology.
2025
Nian, D., Willeit, M., Wunderling, N. et al. Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming. Commun Earth Environ 7, 295. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03427-w, 2026.
Kaufhold, C.; Willeit, M.; Munhoven, G.; Klemann, V.; Ganopolski, A. Timing of a Future Glaciation in View of Anthropogenic Climate Change. Communications Earth & Environment 2025, 6 (1), 1016. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02867-0.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Kaufhold, C., Dalmonech, D., Liu, B., and Ilyina, T.: Earth system response to Heinrich events explained by a bipolar convection seesaw, Nat. Geosci., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01814-0, 2025.
Kaufhold, C., Willeit, M., Liu, B., and Ganopolski, A.: Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes, Biogeosciences, 22, 2767–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025, 2025.
Li, C., Dallmeyer, A., Ni, J., Chevalier, M., Willeit, M., Andreev, A. A., Cao, X., Schild, L., Heim, B., Wieczorek, M., and Herzschuh, U.: Global biome changes over the last 21 000 years inferred from model–data comparisons, Clim. Past, 21, 1001–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1001-2025, 2025.
Kaufhold, C., Willeit, M., Talento, S., Ganopolski, A., and Rockström, J.: Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 20, 044027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be, 2025.
Lee, D., Sparrow, S. N., Willeit, M., Ceppi,P., & Allen, M. R. (2025). Quantifying CO2 and non‐CO2 contributions to climate change under 1.5°C and 2°C adaptive emission scenarios. Earth's Future, 13, e2024EF005580. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005580
2024
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Edwards, N. R., and Rahmstorf, S.: Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations in the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation, Clim. Past, 20, 2719–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, 2024.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024.
Talento, S., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception, Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024.
Carrillo, J., Mann, M. E., Larson, C. J., Christiansen, S., Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Li, X., and Murphy, J. G.: Path-dependence of the Plio–Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 121, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2322926121, 2024.
Masoum A, Nerger L, Willeit M, Ganopolski A, Lohmann G (2024) Paleoclimate data assimilation with CLIMBER-X: An ensemble Kalman filter for the last deglaciation. PLoS ONE 19(4): e0300138. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0300138
Willeit, M., Calov, R., Talento, S., Greve, R., Bernales, J., Klemann, V., Bagge, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Glacial inception through rapid ice area increase driven by albedo and vegetation feedbacks, Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024.
Höning, D., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129, 2024.
2023
Mitsui, T., Willeit, M., and Boers, N.: Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023.
Yun, K.-S., Timmermann, A., Lee, S.-S., Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., and Jadhav, J.: A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years, Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023.
Willeit, M., Ilyina, T., Liu, B., Heinze, C., Perrette, M., Heinemann, M., Dalmonech, D., Brovkin, V., Munhoven, G., Börker, J., Hartmann, J., Romero-Mujalli, G., and Ganopolski, A.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023.
Höning, D., Willeit, M., Calov, R., Klemann, V., Bagge, M., & Ganopolski, A. (2023). Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(6), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827
2022
Timmermann, A., Yun, K.-S., Raia, P., Ruan, J., Mondanaro, A., Zeller, E., Zollikofer, C., Ponce de León, M., Lemmon, D., Willeit, M., & Ganopolski, A. (2022). Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions. Nature, 604(7906), 495–501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04600-9
Landwehrs, J., Feulner, G., Willeit, M., Petri, S., Sames, B., Wagreich, M., Whiteside, J. H., & Olsen, P. E. (2022). Modes of Pangean lake level cyclicity driven by astronomical climate pacing modulated by continental position and p CO2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(46), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203818119
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022.
2020
Wunderling, N., Willeit, M., Donges, J. F., & Winkelmann, R. (2020). Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
2019
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R. and Brovkin, V., 2019: Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal, Science Advances, 5(4), https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337.
Beckmann, J., Perrette, M., Beyer, S., Calov, R., Willeit, M., & Ganopolski, A. (2019). Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model. The Cryosphere, 13(9), 2281–2301. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019
2018
Calov, R., Beyer, S., Greve, R., Beckmann, J., Willeit, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Ganopolski, A., 2018: Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model, The Cryosphere, 12, 3097-3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A., 2018: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 697-707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018.
2016
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A., 2016: PALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817-3857, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016.
2015
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A., 2015: Coupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 11(9), 1165–1180, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., Robinson, A. and Maslin, M., 2015: The role of CO2 decline for the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, Quat. Sci. Rev., 119, 22–34, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.015.
Willeit, M., Amorati, R., Montani, A., Pavan, V. and Tesini, M. S., 2015: Comparison of spectral characteristics of precipitation from radar estimates and COSMO-model predicted fields, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 127(2), 191–203, doi:10.1007/s00703-014-0359-8.
2014
Willeit M., Ganopolski A., Dalmonech D., Foley A. M., Feulner G., 2014: Time-scale and state dependence of the carbon-cycle feedback to climate, Climate Dynamics, published online. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2102-z
Foley A. M., Willeit M., Brovkin V., Feulner G., Friend, A. D., 2014: Quantifying the global carbon cycle response to volcanic stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing using Earth System Models, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119 (Issue 1, 16 January 2014), 101-111. doi:10.1002/2013JD019724
Willeit M., Ganopolski A., Feulner G., 2014: Asymmetry and uncertainties in biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback over a range of CO2 forcings, Biogeosciences, 11 (Issue 1, 3 January 2014), 17-32. doi:10.5194/bg-11-17-2014
2013
Willeit M., Ganopolski A., Feulner G., 2013: On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets, Climate of the Past, 9 (Issue 4, 1 August 2013), 1749-1759. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013
2012
Lucarini V., Faranda D., and Willeit M., 2012: Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 9-22, doi:10.5194/npg-19-9-2012
