Malte Meinshausen

Dr. Malte Meinshausen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
P.O. Box 60 12 03
Telegrafenberg A31
D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

& as well:
School of Earth Sciences
McCoy Building, Room 310
University of Melbourne
Victoria 3010

German Mobile: +49 171 1283069
Australian Mobile: +61 466 988 037
E-Mail: myfirstname.mylastname at

Current focus of research:


  • Emission and concentration implications of long term climate targets, such as limiting global warming to below 2°C.
  • Maintenance and further development of MAGICC6, the lower complexity coupled carbon-cycle, climate model, together with Tom Wigley and Sarah Raper.
  • Analysis of GCM and carbon cycle (CMIP3, C4MIP and forthcoming CMIP5) intercomparison exercises. 
  • Creation of greenhouse gas concentration pathways for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the new set of scenarios for climate change research.
  • Analysis of international climate policy agreement under the UNFCCC in regard to their emission and climate implications. 
  • Team-leader of the research group PRIMAP at PIK until May 2011, now PRIMAP affiliate and at School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne (see
  • Member of External Advisory Board of "Nature Climate Change" and Editorial Board member of "Scientific Reports", both by Nature Publishing Group.



See here an Interview on Australian carbon tax scheme on ABC News, Australia, July 2011:


Interview in UPCLOSE, a science radio news podcast by the University of Melbourne: "Degrees of Uncertainty: Modeling the climate impact of greenhouse gases". (29min), 2012.

Listen to Interview Podcast here
Radio interview on study by Mahe Perrette on regional sea level rise, February 2013.
Listen to Interview on ABC Radio here.




Articles in peer-reviewed journals

41. Heinke, J., S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Mueller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen and W. Lucht (2013). "A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming." Geoscientific Model Development 6(5): 1689-1703.

40. Khodayari, A., D. J. Wuebbles, S. C. Olsen, J. S. Fuglestvedt, T. Berntsen, M. T. Lund, I. Waitz, P. Wolfe, P. M. Forster, M. Meinshausen, D. S. Lee and L. L. Lim (2013). "Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate." Atmospheric Environment 75: 321-328.

39. Luderer, G., R. C. Pietzcker, C. Bertram, E. Kriegler, M. Meinshausen and O. Edenhofer (2013). "Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets." Environmental Research Letters 8(3).

38. Hof, A. F., C. W. Hope, J. Lowe, M. D. Mastrandrea, M. Meinshausen and D. P. van Vuuren (2012). "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component." Climatic Change 113(3-4): 897-917. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0363-7

37. Gregory, J.M., D.Bi, M.A.Collier, M.R.Dix, A.C.Hirst, A.Hu, M.Huber, R.Knutti, S. J.Marsland, M.Meinshausen, H.A.Rashid, L.D.Rotstayn, A. Schurer, J.A.Church (accepted, 9 March 2013) "Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion", GRL

36. Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Peters, G. P., Enting, I. G., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Friedrich, T., Frölicher, T. L., Halloran, P. R., Holden, P. B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T., Mackenzie, F. T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Reisinger, A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka, K., Timmermann, A., and Weaver, A. J. (2013), "Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793-2825, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013.

35. Rogelj, J., D. L. McCollum, A. Reisinger, M. Meinshausen and K. Riahi (2013). "Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation." Nature 493(7430): 79-83. (HTML)

34. Frieler, K., M. Meinshausen, A. Golly, M. Mengel, K. van der Merwe, S. Donner, O. Hoegh-Guldberg (2012) "Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1674 (HTML)

33. den Elzen, M., M. Meinshausen, A. Hof (2012) "The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancun Agreements" Climatic Change Letters, doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0530-5 (HTML)

32. Frieler, K., M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, N. Braun, W. Hare (2012). "A Scaling Approach to Probabilistic Assessment of Regional Climate Change." Journal of Climate 25(9): 3117-3144.

31. van Vliet, J., M. van den Berg, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren, M. den Elzen, A. F. Hof, A.M. Beltran, M. Meinshausen, (2012) "Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming" Climatic Change Letters, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0458-9, online first (HTML)

30. Hof, A., C. Hope, J. Lowe, M.D. Mastrandrea, M. Meinshausen, D. P.  van Vuuren (2011) "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: The role of the carbon cycle and climate component". Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0363-7 (HTML)

29. Rogelj, J., M. Meinshausen and R. Knutti (2012). "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates." Nature Clim. Change advance online publication. doi:10.1038/nclimate1385 (HTML)

28. Schneider von Deimling, T., M. Meinshausen, A. Levermann, V. Huber, K. Frieler, D. M. Lawrence and V. Brovkin (2012). "Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming." Biogeosciences 9(2): 649-665. (HTML)

27. Nabel, J. E. M. S., J. Rogelj, C. M. Chen, K. Markmann, D. J. H. Gutzmann and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module." Environmental Modelling & Software 26(12): 1419-1433.(HTML)

26. Rogelj, J., W. Hare, J. Lowe, D.P. van Vuuren, K. Riahi, B. Matthews, T. Hanaoka, K. Jiang, M. Meinshausen (2011) "Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C global temperature limit", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1258 (HTML)

25. Schleussner, C.-F., K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Yin, and A. Levermann, (2011) "Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast", Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 191-200, doi:10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 (HTML)(PDF)

24. Meinshausen, M., S. J. Smith, K. V. Calvin, J. S. Daniel, M. Kainuma, J.-F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S. A. Montzka, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. M. Thomson, G. J. M. Velders and D. van Vuuren (2011). "The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their Extension from 1765 to 2300." Climatic Change (Special Issue). DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z (PDF) (HTML)

23. van Vuuren, D. P., J. Edmonds, M. L. T. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, T. Matsui, G. Hurtt, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Meinshausen, S. Smith, C. Grainer, S. Rose, K. A. Hibbard, N. Nakicenovic, V. Krey and T. Kram (2011). "Representative Concentration Pathways: an overview." Climatic Change (Special Issue). DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z (PDF) (HTML)

22. Jean-François Lamarque, G. Page Kyle, M. Meinshausen, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Andrew J. Conley, Francis Vitt (2011) "Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways." Climatic Change (Special Issue). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0 (HTML)

21. Jones, C., J. Hughes, N. Bellouin, S. Hardimann, G. Jones, J. Knight, S. Liddicoat, F.M. O'Connor, B. Andres, C. Bell, K-O. Boo, A. Bozzo, P. Cadule, K. Corbin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, P. Friedlingstein, J. Gornall, L. Gray, P. Halloran, G Hurrt, W. Ingram, J.-F. Lamarque, R. Law, M. Meinshausen, S. Osprey, E. Palin, L. P. Chini, T. Raddatz, M. Sanderson, A. Sellar, P. Valdes, N. Wood, S. Woodward, M. Yoshioka (2011) "The HadGEM2-ES Implementation of CMIP5 Centennial Simulations",  Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543-570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011, 2011. (HTML)(PDF)

20. Reisinger, A., M. Meinshausen, M. Manning (2011) "Future changes in Global Warming Potentials under the Representative Concentration Pathways". Environmental Research Letters, 6 024020 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024020 (HTML)

19. Rogelj, J., W. Hare, C. Chen and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2°C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges." Environmental Research Letters, 6 (April-June 2011) 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024002 (HTML)

18. Schewe. J., A. Levermann, M. Meinshausen (2011) "Climate change under a scenario near 1.5°C of global warming: Monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise", Earth System Dynamics, 2, 25-35. doi:10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 (HTML)(PDF)

17. van Vuuren, D. P., J. Lowe, E. Stehfest, L. Gohar, A. F. Hof, C. Hope, R. Warren, M. Meinshausen and G. K. Plattner (2011). "How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?" Climatic Change 104(2): 255-285. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9764-2 (Link)

16. Frieler, K., M. Meinshausen, T. Schneider von Deimling, T. Andrews, and P. Forster (2011), Changes in global-mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04702, doi:10.1029/2010GL045953.

15. Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L. (2011): Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456, doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 (HTML)(PDF)

14. Meinshausen, M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Raper, S. C. B. (2011): Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1457-1471, doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011 (HTML) (PDF)

13. Rogelj, J., C. Chen, J. Nabel, K. Macey, W. Hare, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann, N. Höhne, K. Krogh Andersen and M. Meinshausen (2010). "Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impact - a snapshot of dissonant ambitions." Environmental Research Letters 5(3): 034013. (HTML) (PDF)

12. Reisinger, A., M. Meinshausen, M. Manning and G. Bodeker (2010). "Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2 and CH4." Geophysical Research Letters 37: L14707, doi:10.1029/2010GL043803

11. Manning, M. R., J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart and D. P. van Vuuren (2010) "Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios." Nature Geosci 3(6): 376.

10. Rogelj, J., J. Nabel, C. Chen, W. Hare, K. Markmann, M. Meinshausen, M. Schaeffer, K. Macey and N. Hohne (2010). "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry." Nature 464(7292): 1126.

9. Meinshausen, M., N. Meinshausen, W. Hare, S. C. B. Raper, K. Frieler, R. Knutti, D. J. Frame and M. R. Allen (2009). "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C." Nature 458(7242): 1158. (PDF) (HTML) (Supplementary) (Background information)

8. Allen, M. R., D. J. Frame, C. Huntingford, C. D. Jones, J. A. Lowe, M. Meinshausen and N. Meinshausen (2009). "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne." Nature 458(7242): 1163. (PDF)

7. Schaeffer, M., T. Kram, M. Meinshausen, D. P. van Vuuren and W. L. Hare (2008). "Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(52): 20621-20626.

6. Van Vuuren, D. P., M. Meinshausen, G. K. Plattner, F. Joos, K. M. Strassmann, S. J. Smith, T. M. L. Wigley, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, F. de la Chesnaye, M. G. J. den Elzen, J. Fujino, K. Jiang, N. Nakicenovic, S. Paltsev and J. M. Reilly (2008). "Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(40): 15258-15262.

5. Knutti, R., M. R. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, G. A. Meehl, M. Meinshausen, J. M. Murphy, G.-K. Plattner, S. C. B. Raper, T. F. Stocker, P. A. Stott, H. Teng and T. M. L. Wigley (2008). "A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century." Journal of Climate 21: 2651-2663.

4. den Elzen, M., M. Meinshausen and D. van Vuuren (2007). "Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: Costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase." Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 17(2): 260-280.

3. den Elzen, M. G. J. and M. Meinshausen (2006). "Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications." Climate Policy 6: 545-564.

2. Hare, B. and M. Meinshausen (2006). "How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided?" Climatic Change 75(1): 111-149.

1. Meinshausen, M., B. Hare, T. M. L. Wigley, D. van Vuuren, M. G. J. den Elzen and R. Swart (2006). "Multi-gas emission pathways to meet climate targets." Climatic Change 75(1): 151-194.

Submitted Papers

Perrette, M., R. Riva, F. Landerer, K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen (submitted) "Probabilistic projections of sea-level change along the world’s coastlines", Earth System Dynamics Discussions, doi:10.5194/esdd-3-357-2012 (HTML)

Friedlingstein, P., M. Meinshausen, C. D. Jones, S.K. Liddicoat, V.K. Arora and R. Knutti (submitted) "CMIP5 climate projections and uncertainties due to carbon cycle feedbacks", Journal of Climate

Peters, G.P., A. Reisinger, J.S. Fuglestvedt, M.Meinshausen, (submitted) "
Dependence of Global  Warming Potentials on constant and variable background concentrations"


Allen, M., D. Frame, K. Frieler, W. Hare, C. Huntingford, C. Jones, R. Knutti, J. Lowe, M. Meinshausen, N. Meinshausen and S. Raper (2009). "The exit strategy." Nature Reports Climate Change (0905): 56. (PDF) (HTML)

Rogelj, J., B. Hare, J. Nabel, K. Macey, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann and M. Meinshausen (2009). "Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2C." Nature Reports Climate Change (0907): 81.(PDF)

Contributing Author to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Working Group I, Chapter 10 & 8,
Working Group II, Chapter 2:

Book chapters

Meinshausen, M. (2006). What does a 2°C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? - A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. J. S. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. M. L. Wigley and G. Yohe. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

den Elzen, M. G. J. and M. Meinshausen (2006). Multi-Gas Emission Pathways for Meeting the EU 2°C Climate Target. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. J. S. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. M. L. Wigley and G. Yohe. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Meinshausen, M. (2008). Eine kurze Anmerkung zu 2°C Trajektorien. Wege aus der Klimafalle. H. Ott and Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. München, Oekom: 19-30.

Meinshausen, M. (2004). Emissions, Targets and Projections for Annex I Parties. The International Climate Change Regime: A Guide to Rules, Institutions and Procedures. F. Yamin and J. Depledge. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Diploma Thesis

Meinshausen, M. (2001). Long term chlorine loading prediction: SiMCeL. Institute for Atmosphere and Climate, IACETH. Zurich, ETH Zurich: 91.

since 2006
Researcher at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
2005 - 2006 Guest researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, Boulder, USA
2002 - 2003 Doctoral courses in macroeconomics, microeconomics and econometrics at the Study Center Gerzensee, Swiss National Bank
2001 - 2005 PhD study in the area "International climate policy and economics", Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH
1995 - 1999
2000 - 2001
Diploma course "Environmental Sciences" at the ETH Zurich. Diploma thesis on "Long-term stratospheric chlorine loading prediction" at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
1999 - 2000 MSc Environmental Change & Management, University of Oxford, UK. MSc Thesis on "The climatic effect of temporary carbon storage under the Clean Development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol"

Professional experience
Since 2000 Freelance consultancy for government bodies and environmental NGOs on climate policy issues
2001 - 2002 Assisting and lecturing at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, for the case study "Montreal Protocol"
1998 - 1999 Internship at Ecologic gGmbH, Berlin on the Montreal- and Kyoto Protocol