Julius Garbe ist Doktorand und Mitglied der Arbeitsgruppe Eisdynamik am PIK. Er forscht zum langfristigen Stabilitätsverhalten und potentiellen Kipppunkten des Antarktischen Eisschilds sowie deren Auswirkungen auf den zukünftigen Meeresspiegelansstieg.
Kontakt
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288
2673
julius.garbe[at]pik-potsdam.de
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
PhD Project
My research focuses on the long-term stability behavior and potential critical thresholds—so-called 'tipping points'—of the Antarctic ice sheet under the scope of future global warming. In particular, I investigate how the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet is affected by the influence of interacting tipping elements in the global climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet or the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The aim of my PhD project is to assess the likelihood that a tipping of the Greenland ice sheet influences the tipping potential of the Antarctic ice sheet. Using numerical ice sheet modelling, I want to answer the question, how such a tipping cascade impacts future sea-level contributions from Antarctica.
My work is funded by the Leibniz Association project DominoES – Domino Effects in the Earth System: Can Antarctica tip climate policy?, a joint project by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, and the EU's Horizon-2020 project TiPACCs – Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components.
- Advisor: Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann
Research Interests
Peer-Reviewed Journals
In Review / Submitted
- Urruty, B.*, Hill, E. A.*, Reese, R.*, Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P. M.
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part A: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2022-104, in review, 2022. *These authors contributed equally to this work. - Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., and Winkelmann, R.
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part B: Possible commitment of regional collapse under current climate
The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2022-105, in review, 2022. - Bauer, N., Keller, D. P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., and Winkelmann, R.
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time
Environmental Research Letters, submitted, 2022.
Published
- Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Nature, 585, 538–544, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020. - Official press release: Stability Check on Antarctica Reveals High Risk for Long-Term Sea-Level Rise
- Animation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOQK1BUuseY
- Media coverage: The Guardian, DER SPIEGEL, ScienceNews, t-online, Der Standard, NRC, La Vanguardia
- Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C., Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., Calov, R., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Nowicki, S. M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.-J., Sun, S., and van de Wal, R. S. W.
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, doi:10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020. - Official press release: The Antarctica Factor: model uncertainties reveal upcoming sea level risk
Other Publications
Academic Theses
- Garbe, J.
Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (M.Sc. Thesis)
University of Hamburg, 2017. - Garbe, J.
An overview of explanations for the problem of weak temperature gradients in warm climates in Earth history (B.Sc. Thesis)
Humboldt University of Berlin, 2013.
Data & Code
- Garbe, J., other PISM authors
PISM version as used in Garbe et al. (Nature, 2020) publication (Version v1.0-hysteresis-antarctica)
Zenodo, doi:10.5281/zenodo.3956431, 2020.
Non-Peer-Reviewed Publications
- Garbe, J.
Hysteresis For Dummies – Why history matters
EGU Blogs, 2020.
- J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, U. Krebs-Kanzow, R. Winkelmann
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple (talk)
EGU General Assembly 2022, May 23, 2022, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann, M. Kreuzer
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
28th International Polar Conference, May 4, 2022, Potsdam, Germany - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (ignite talk and poster)
InTENSE Workshop, August 16, 2021, Bad Belzig, Germany - R. Winkelmann, J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (online display)
AGU Fall Meeting 2020, December 16, 2020, online - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (talk)
PIK RD1 Science Discussion, September 2, 2020, Potsdam, Germany - R. Winkelmann, T. Albrecht, J. Garbe, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann
Antarctic ice dynamics - from deep past to deep future (online display)
EGU General Assembly 2020, May 5, 2020, online - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Long-term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
AGU Fall Meeting 2019, December 13, 2019, San Francisco, USA - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
EGU General Assembly 201, April 9, 2019, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe
Hysteresis Behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (talk)
PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar, November 14, 2018, Potsdam, Germany - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Hysteresis behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PICO presentation)
EGU General Assembly 2018, April 9, 2018, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe
Tipping of the Antarctic Ice Sheet influenced by Greenland ice loss (talk)
PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar, October 26, 2017, Potsdam, Germany - M. Martin, J. Garbe
Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol (children's lecture)
Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2017, June 24, 2017, Potsdam, Germany - R. Reese, J. Garbe
Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol (children's lecture)
Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2016, June 11, 2016, Potsdam, Germany
- InTENSE Workshop on Interacting Tipping Elements
Interacting Tipping Elements in the Natural and Social Components of the Earth System (InTENSE)
August 15-18, 2021, Bad Belzig, Germany - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements III (co-hosted)
Criticality in Social Tipping Processes
December 4, 2020, online - Emergent Constraints & Tipping Points Workshop (University of Exeter)
Emergent Constraints and Tipping Points
November 23-26, 2020, online - FRISP 2020
Forum for Research into Ice Shelf Processes
June 16-25, 2020, online - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements II (co-hosted)
Social Tipping Elements relevant to stay within planetary boundaries
June 17-19, 2019, Cologne, Germany - Karthaus Summer School 2018
Ice Sheets and Glaciers in the Climate System
September 11-22, 2018, Karthaus, Italy - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements I (co-hosted)
Social Tipping Elements Decisive for the Future of the Anthropocene
June 4-6, 2018, Cologne, Germany
