Julius Garbe

PhD Project

My research focuses on the long-term stability behavior and potential critical thresholds—so-called 'tipping points'—of the Antarctic ice sheet under the scope of future global warming. In particular, I investigate how the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet is affected by the influence of interacting tipping elements in the global climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet or the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The aim of my PhD project is to assess the likelihood that a tipping of the Greenland ice sheet influences the tipping potential of the Antarctic ice sheet. Using numerical ice sheet modelling, I want to answer the question, how such a tipping cascade impacts future sea-level contributions from Antarctica.

My work is funded by the Leibniz Association project DominoES – Domino Effects in the Earth System: Can Antarctica tip climate policy?, a joint project by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, and the EU's Horizon 2020 project TiPACCs.

• Advisor: Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann

Research Interests

• Ice sheet / ice shelf modelling (co-development of PISM)
• Antarctic ice sheet stability and future sea-level change
• Hysteresis behavior and tipping points of the Antarctic ice sheet
• Climate and socio-economic tipping interactions (DominoES)
• Earth system resilience (ERAlab)

Peer-Reviewed Journals

2020

• Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.
  "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet"
  Nature, 585, 538–544, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020.
• Official press release: Stability Check on Antarctica Reveals High Risk for Long-Term Sea-Level Rise
• Animation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOQK1BUuseY
• Media coverage: The Guardian, DER SPIEGEL, ScienceNews, t-online, Der Standard, NRC, La Vanguardia
• Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C., Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., Calov, R., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Nowicki, S. M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.-J., Sun, S., and van de Wal, R. S. W.
  "Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)"
  Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, doi:10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020.
• Official press release: The Antarctica Factor: model uncertainties reveal upcoming sea level risk

Other Publications

Theses

• Garbe, J.
  "Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (M.Sc. Thesis)
  University of Hamburg, 2017
• Garbe, J.
  "An overview of explanations for the problem of weak temperature gradients in warm climates in Earth history" (B.Sc. Thesis)
  Humboldt University of Berlin, 2013

Current Projects

• TiPACCs – Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components (Funded by the EU's Horizon 2020, 2019–2023)
• DominoES – Domino Effects in the Earth System: Can Antarctica tip climate policy? (Funded by the Leibniz Association, 2017–2021)

Associated Member

• COPAN – Coevolution of human-environment systems in the Anthropocene
• PROTECT – Projecting Sea-Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications

• R. Winkelmann, J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges
  "The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (online display)
  AGU Fall Meeting 2020
  December 16, 2020, online 
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
  "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (talk)
  PIK RD1 Science Discussion
  September 2, 2020, Potsdam, Germany
• R. Winkelmann, T. Albrecht, J. Garbe, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann
  "Antarctic ice dynamics - from deep past to deep future" (online display)
  EGU General Assembly 2020
  May 5, 2020, online 
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
  "Long-term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (poster)
  AGU Fall Meeting 2019
  December 13, 2019, San Francisco, USA
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
  "Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (poster)
  EGU General Assembly 2019
  April 9, 2019, Vienna, Austria
• J. Garbe
  "Hysteresis Behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet" (talk)
  PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar
  November 14, 2018, Potsdam, Germany
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
  "Hysteresis behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model" (PICO presentation)
  EGU General Assembly 2018
  April 9, 2018, Vienna, Austria
• J. Garbe
  "Tipping of the Antarctic Ice Sheet influenced by Greenland ice loss" (talk)
  PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar
  October 26, 2017, Potsdam, Germany
• M. Martin, J. Garbe
  "Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol" (children's lecture)
  Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2017
  June 24, 2017, Potsdam, Germany
• R. Reese, J. Garbe
  "Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol" (children's lecture)
  Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2016
  June 11, 2016, Potsdam, Germany

• DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements III (co-hosted)
  "Criticality in Social Tipping Processes"
  December 4, 2020, online
• Emergent Constraints & Tipping Points Workshop (University of Exeter)
  "Emergent Constraints and Tipping Points"
  November 23-26, 2020, online 
• FRISP 2020
  Forum for Research into Ice Shelf Processes
  June 16-25, 2020, online
• DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements II (co-hosted)
  "Social Tipping Elements relevant to stay within planetary boundaries"
  June 17-19, 2019, Cologne, Germany
• Karthaus School 2018
  "Ice Sheets and Glaciers in the Climate System"
  September 11-22, 2018, Karthaus, Italy 
• DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements I (co-hosted)
  "Social Tipping Elements Decisive for the Future of the Anthropocene"
  June 4-6, 2018, Cologne, Germany