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How would a new grand minimum of solar activity affect the future climate?

We have investigated the effect of a future Grand Minimum of solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century on the future climate on Earth. We find only a slight temperature offset of no more than -0.3 degrees Celsius compared to the warming of about 4 degrees due to human greenhouse-gas emissions:

 

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The results are published in:

Feulner G., Rahmstorf S., 2010: On the Effect of a New Grand Minimum of Solar Activity on the Future Climate on Earth, Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (March 2010),  L05707. doi:10.1029/2010GL042710

 

This paper has been chosen as Research Highlight in the following journals:

 

PIK Press Release: English, German

 

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