Christian Otto leads the research group Event based modeling of the economic impact of
climate change and is deputy chair of research department III "Transformation Pathways". He is also coordinator for the energy sector in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Together with his research group, he studies the socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and fluvial floods at different timescales, ranging from direct (asset) losses over the spreading of indirect losses in the global supply network, to the long-term impacts of extreme weather events on economic development. A special focus of his research is on systemic risks which spread from one sub-system to the next and socioeconomic tipping points. He has co-developed the global dynamic supply chain model Acclimate.
Department
Working Group
Contact
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2481
christian.otto[at]pik-potsdam.de
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
| since 2024 | Deputy Chair of Research Department III "Transformation Pathways" |
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| at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany |
| since 2018 | Head of working group "Event-based Modeling of Economic Impacts of Climate Change" |
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| at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany |
| 2017 | Visiting Scientist |
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| at Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA |
| 2013 - 2019 | Postdoctoral Researcher |
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| at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany |
| 2009 - 2013 | Ph.D. in Physics (summa cum laude) |
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with Prof. Dr. Eckehard Schöll, Ph.D. at the Technische Universität Berlin, Germany |
| 2012 | Visiting Scientist |
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| with Prof. Dr. Thomas Erneux at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium |
| 2009 | Diploma in Physics (M.Sc.) |
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| at Freie Universität Berlin, Germany |
| 2004 - 2005 | Stay abroad |
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| at Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France |
- Economic impacts of extreme weather events at different timescales - from direct asset losses, over supply-chain disruptions and price effects, to long-term impacts on economic growth
- Price formation in agricultural commodity markets
- Climate change impacts on global food security
- Transition towards a sustainable economic system
- Dynamical modeling and empirical quantifications
- Agent-based modeling
Submitted and under review
- Hassel, J., Vogt, T., Frieler, K., & Otto, C. Poor and unequal U.S. counties are more vulnerable to tropical cyclone damage. under review in JEEM
- Kuhla, K., Goldrina, M., Puma, M.J., Kinkel, Y. & Otto, C. Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change, and risks for crop prices and regional consumption. under review in Environmental Research Letters
- Kuhla, K., Puma, M.J., Jaegermeyr, J. & Otto, C. Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century. under review in Nature Food
- Bechtold, M., Poschlod, B., Otto, C., Volkholz, J., Büchner, M., & Zabel, F. A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling. under review in Earth System Science Data
- Mengel, M., Sauer, I., Otto, C., Treu, S., Lisa, N. & Frieler, K. Increase of tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding due to historical sea level rise. under review in Environmental Research Letters
- Huang, W., ... , Otto, C., ... & Guo, Y. Tropical cyclone storm surges drive distinct, prolonged phase-specific mortality patterns globally. under review in Nature Communications
- Mora, C.J., ..., Otto, C., & Undorf, S. Attributing global food security impacts to anthropogenic climate change and trade policy: The 2010 Russian wheat failure. under review in Environmental Research Letters
Peer-reviewed publications
2026
- Otto, C., Schult, C., & Vogt, T. Climate change economics in Vietnam: Redefining economic impact. Energy Economics, 160, 109390 (2026)
- Lin, S.Y., ... , Otto, C., ... & Hashizume, M. Heterogeneous effects of tropical cyclones on diarrheal diseases across multiple Asian regions by cyclone definitions. npj Natural Hazards, accepted
- Frieler, K., ... , Otto, C. & Strokal, M. Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II). Geoscientific Model Development, 19(10), 4095–4135 (2026)
- Schötz, C., Hassel, J. & Otto, C. Statistical Learning for Climate-GDP Panels: Data Cleaning, Flexible Trend Controls, and Predictive Validation, PLOS Climate, accepted
2025
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Auer, C., Bosello, F., Bressan, G., Delpiazzo, E., Monasterolo, I., Otto, C., Parrado, R., & Reyer, C. P. O. Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war differ across sectors and regions. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 194 (2025)
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Huang, W., Xu, R., Yang, Z., Otto, C., …, & Guo, Y. Cause specific mortality risks associated with tropical cyclones in multiple countries and territories: Two stage, time series study. BMJ, 391, e084906 (2025)
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Huang, W., Yang, Z., Zhang, Y., Vogt, T., Park, J., Yu, W., Xu, R., Hales, S., Hundessa, S., Otto, C., …, & Guo, Y.. Hospitalization risk and burden for cause-specific cardiovascular diseases following tropical cyclones: A multicountry studyhttps://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr0800. Science Advances, 11(31), eadr0800.
- Kuhla, K., Kubiczek, P., & Otto, C. Understanding agricultural market dynamics in times of crisis: The dynamic agent-based network model Agrimate. Ecological Economics, 231, 108546 (2025)
- Sauer, I. J., Walsh, B., Frieler, K., Bresch, D. N., & Otto, C. Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines. iScience, 28(2), 111733 (2025)
2024
- Quante, L., Willner, S. N., Otto, C., & Levermann, A. Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor. Nature Sustainability, 1–10 (2024)
- Vogt, T., Treu, S., Mengel, M., Frieler, K., & Otto, C. Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 1–19 (2024)
- Kuhla, K., Puma, M. J., & Otto, C. International cooperation was key to stabilize wheat prices after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 1–15 (2024)
- Huang, W., Vogt, T., Park, J., Yang, Z., Ritchie, E. A., Xu, R., Zhang, Y., Hales, S., Yu, W., Hundessa, S., Otto, C., Yu, P., Liu, Y., Ju, K., Lavigne, E., Ye, T., Wen, B., Wu, Y., Kliengchuay, W., … Guo, Y. Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: A multi-country time-series study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 8(9), e629–e639 (2024)
- Huang, W., Yang, Z., Zhang, Y., Vogt, T., ..., Otto, C., ..., Gua, Z. Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study. PLOS Medicine, 21(1), e1004341 (2024)
- Sauer, I. J., Mester, B., Frieler, K., Zimmermann, S., Schewe, J., & Otto, C. Limited progress in global reduction of vulnerability to flood impacts over the past two decades. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 1–16 (2024)
- Stürmer, J., Plietzsch, A., Vogt, T., Hellmann, F., Kurths, J., Otto, C., Frieler, K., & Anvari, M. (2024). Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines. Nature Energy, 9(5), 526–535 (2024)
- Frieler K., ..., Otto C., ..., and Bechthold, M. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), Geoscience Model Development, 17, 1 (2024)
2023
- Krichene H., Vogt T., Piontek K., Geiger T., Schötz C., and Otto C. The social cost of tropical cyclones, Nature Communications, 14(1), 7294 (2023)
- Mester B., Vogt T., Bryant S., Otto C., Frieler K., and Schewe J. Human displacements from tropical cyclone Idai attributable to climate change, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3467 (2023).
- Middelanis R., Willner S.N., Kuhla K., Quante L., Otto C., and Levermann A. Stressed economies respond more strongly to climate extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18(9), 094034 (2023)
- Huang W., Li S., Vogt. T., ... , Otto C., ... , and Guo Y. Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: A multi-country time-series study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 7(8), e694–e705 (2023)
- Van Den Hurk B., Baldissera Pacchetti M., ... , Otto C., ... , and Witpas K. Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. Climate Risk Management, 40, 100500 (2023)
- Kuhla K., Willner S.N., Otto C., and Levermann A. Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2023), 151, 104663 (2023)
- Rikani A., Otto C., Levermann A., and Schewe J.. More people too poor to move: divergent effects of climate change on global migration patterns. Environmental Research Letters, 18(2), 024006 (2023)
- Otto C., Kuhla K., Geiger T., Schewe J., and Frieler K. Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming. Science Advances, 9(1), eadd6616 (2023)
2022
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Middelanis R., Willner S.N., Otto C., and Levermann A. Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming. Environmental Research Letters, 17(10), 104013 (2022)
2021
- Kuhla K., Willner S.N., Otto C., Geiger T., and Levermann A. Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes, Enviromental Research Letters, 16(11), 114010 (2021)
- Middelanis R., Willner S.N., Otto C., Kuhla K., Quante L., Levermann A. Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy, Enviromental Research Letters, 16(12), 124049 (2021)
- Dasgupta S., van Maanen N., Gosling S.N., Piontek F., Otto C., and Schleussner C.-F. Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study, The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), e455-e465 (2021)
- Kuhla K., Willner S.N., Otto C., Wenz L., and Levermann A. Future heat stress to reduce people's purchasing power, PLoS One, 16(6) (2021)
- Piontek F., Drouet L., Emmerling J. , Kompas T., Méjan A., Taconet N., Otto C., Rising J., Soergel B., and Kriegler E. Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change, Nature Climate Change, 11, 563–572 (2021)
- Krichene H., Geiger T., Frieler K., Willner S.N., Sauer I., and Otto C. The Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Fluvial Floods on Economic Growth – Empirical Evidence on Transmission Channels at Different Levels of Development, World Development, 144, 105475 (2021)
- Sauer I., Reese R., Otto C., Geiger T., Willner S.N., Guillod B., Bresch D., and Frieler K. Climate Signals in River Flood Damages Emerge under Sound Regional Disaggregation, Nature Communications, 12, 2128 (2021)
- Falkendal T., Otto C., Schewe J., Jägermeyr J., Konar M., Kummu M., Watskin B., and Puma M.J. Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries, Nature Food, 2(1), 11–14 (2021)
2020
- Wenz L., Levermann A., Willner S.N., Otto C., and Kuhla K. Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development, PLoS ONE, 15(9), e0237500 (2020)
2018
- Willner S.N., Otto C., and Levermann A. Global Economic Response to river floods, Nature Climate Change, 8, 594–598 (2018)
- Highlighted in Koks E. Moving flood risk modelling forwards, Nature Climate Change News & Views (2018)
2017
- Otto C., Willner S.N., Wenz L., Frieler K., and Levermann A. Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 232-269 (2017) [pdf]
- Schewe J., Otto C., and Frieler K. The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices, Envioronmental Research Letters, 12(5), 054005 (2017) [pdf]
2014
- Otto C., Jaurique L.C., Schöll E., and Lüdge K. Optimization of Timing Jitter Reduction by Optical Feedback for a Passively Mode-Locked Laser, IEEE Photonics Journal, 6(5), 6884771 (2014) [pdf]
- Otto C., Lingnau B., Schöll E., and Lüdge K. Manipulating coherence resonance in a quantum dot semiconductor laser via electrical pumping, Optics Express, 22(11), 13288 (2014) [pdf]
2012
- Lüdge K., Lingnau B., Otto C., and Schöll E. Understanding electrical and optical modulation properties of semiconductor quantum-dot lasers in terms of their turn-on dynamics, Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 15, 350–359 (2012). [pdf]
- Otto C., Lüdge K., Vladimirov A.G., Wolfrum M., and Schöll E. Delay induced dynamics and jitter reduction of passively mode-locked semiconductor laser subject to optical feedback, New Journal of Physics, 14, 113033 (2012). [pdf]
- Otto C., Globisch B., Lüdge K., Schöll E., and Erneux T. Complex dynamics of semiconductor quantum dot lasers subject to delayed optical feedback, International Journal of Bifurcations and Chaos, 22, 1250246 (2012). [pdf]
- Globisch B., Otto C., Schöll E., and Lüdge K. Influence of carrier lifetimes on the dynamical behavior of quantum-dot lasers subject to optical feedback, Physical Review E, 86, 046201 (2012). [pdf]
- Pausch J., Otto C., Tylaite E., Majer N., Schöll E., and Lüdge K. Optically injected quantum dot lasers - impact of nonlinear carrier lifetimes on frequency locking dynamics, New Journal of Physics, 14, 053018 (2012). [pdf]
2010
- Otto C., Lüdge K., and Schöll E. Modeling quantum dot lasers with optical feedback: sensitivity of bifurcation scenarios, physica status solidi (b), 247, 829–845 (2010). [pdf]
Commentaries, policy briefs, and reports
- Lawrence, M., Shipman, M., Janzwood, S., Arnscheidt, C., Donges, J., Homer-Dixon, T., Otto, C.,
Schweizer, P.J., Wunderling, N. Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap 2024: Gaps,
opportunities, and priorities for polycrisis research and action. Version 1.0. Cascade Institute (2024) - Zimmer A., Sauer I., Berger J., Schleypen J., Vogt. T., Plinke C., Geiger T., Piontek F., Krichene H., Malafry L., Pittel K., Kuhla K., and Otto C. Understanding the Short and Long-Term Impacts of Climate Extremes. Synthesis Report. (2023)
- Singh P., Benney M.T., Galeotti M., Lunga W., Otto C., Sedaoui R., and Zimmer M.. T20 Policy Brief: Coastal challenges: Mainstreaming Climate Action in the G20 Development Agenda
- Otto C., Piontek F., Kalkuhl M., and Frieler K. Event-based models to understand the scale of the impact of extremes, Nature Energy, 5(2), 111–114. (2020)
- Contributing Author to: A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific, Report of the Asian Development Bank (2017)
Book
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Otto C. Dynamics of Quantum Dot Lasers - Effects of Optical Feedback and External Optical Injection, Series: Springer Theses (Springer, Heidelberg 2014)
Book chapters
- Otto C., Lüdge K., Viktorov E. A., and Erneux T. Quantum dot laser tolerance to optical feedback, in Nonlinear Laser Dynamics - From Quantum Dots to Cryptography, edited by Lüdge K. (WILEY-VCH, Weinheim, 2012), chapter 6, pp. 141–162. [pdf]
Others
- Kuhla K., Puma M.J., Schewe J. , and Otto C. International cooperation could help avert a major food crisis due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Research Square (2022)
- Otto C. Dynamics of quantum dot lasers subject to optical feedback and external optical injection, Ph.D. thesis, Universitätsbibliothek Technische Universität Berlin (2013) [pdf]
- Otto C. Nichtlineare Dynamik in Multisektions- Quantenpunktlasern, diploma thesis, Technische Universität Berlin (2009) [pdf]
- Short- and Long-term Impacts of Climate Extremes (SLICE), BMBF, Economics of Climate Change funding line, 2018-2022, Project lead
- Quantifying Direct and Indirect Costs of Climate-related Hazards (QUIDIC), BMBF, 2020-2024, Principal investigator
- A Symbiotic Agent-Based Network Platform Linking Expert Knowledge and Machine Learning of Systemic Risk Mitigation (C2-P2), DARPA, World Modelers Progam, 2018-2022, Principal investigator
- Remote Climate Effects and Their Impact on European Sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT), EU H2020, 2019-2023, Senior scientist
- Climate Change Impacts and Policies in Heterogeneous Societies (CHIPS), BMBF/JPI climate AXIS funding line, 2019-2022, Senior scientist
- The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), Sector coordinator
- Acclimate - A dynamic agent-based supply-chain model for loss propagation in the global economic network
- Multi-TWIST - A dynamic agent-based model for price and storage dynamics at agricultural world markets
