Climate mitigation in forest systems is critical for limiting global warming and has important implications for biosphere functions such as freshwater and biodiversity. However, there are major knowledge gaps with regard to the future resilience of forest-based interventions - i.e. their capacity to remain functional in delivering desirable water-climate-biodiversity functions despite natural and anthropogenic perturbations. This project aims to generate knowledge on how to safeguard the biophysical and social-ecological resilience of forest-based climate change mitigation measures under shifting hydroclimatic conditions including ecological droughts. We will (1) design forest-based mitigation scenarios in close collaboration with stakeholders, (2) quantify the resilience and sustainability of the biospheric integrity of forest-based climate mitigation measures, (3) analyze the local and remote effects of hydroclimatic adaptation, and (4) holistically assess the social-ecological resilience of forest-based climate change mitigation measures. Both modeling and empirical analyses will be applied to comprehensively account for water-climate-forest dynamics, including the coupling of a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model with an Earth system model and an atmospheric moisture tracking tool. The proposed project will help enhance both the biophysical and social-ecological resilience of water-climate-biodiversity functions from forest-based mitigation measures
The project is organized in five work packages (WPs). WP1 co-develops forest-based mitigation scenarios with stakeholders iteratively and runs these scenarios using a combination of vegetation and Earth system model; WP2 analyzes the interactions of these scenarios with biosphere integrity; WP3 analyzes the role of hydroclimatic adaptation based on remote sensing data; WP4 applies social-ecological resilience principles to case studies and integrates findings with decision making, and WP5 is concerned with communication, dissemination, coordination, and synthesis.
PIK leads WP2 with support and contributions from all other project collaborators. WP2 investigates the effects of different forest scenarios on biosphere integrity in the coupled climate-biosphere-water system. Recent development of diverse plant rooting strategies and two biosphere integrity indicators based on standard LPJmL assessing human extraction and prevention of biomass productivity and the resulting risk of ecosystem degradation as a result of land use, pollution, and climate change (BioCol and EcoRisk - Stenzel et al., subm.), as well as work on the functional diversity in forests in the flexible individual traits version LPJmL-FIT allows us to study past and future biosphere integrity spatially, directly from model outputs. This exploratory analysis will be complemented by comparison with other established biosphere integrity indicators, such as the biosphere intactness index BII. WP2 comprises two tasks. Task 2.1 conceptualizes an indicator framework, combining several types of model-based biosphere integrity indicators, and describing different functions and processes relevant to ecosystem stability. Task 2.2 analyzes biosphere integrity. The implications of the different forest scenarios on biosphere integrity will be assessed globally using the framework under different co-developed forest-based mitigation scenarios and different climate change scenarios.
