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Nice sunny days can grow into heat waves – and wildfires: summer weather is stalling

20/08/2018 - Be it heavy downpours or super-hot spells, summer weather becomes more persistent in North America, Europe and parts of Asia. When those conditions stall for several days or weeks, they can turn into extremes: heatwaves resulting in droughts, health risks and wildfires; or relentless rainfall resulting in floods. A team of scientists now presents the first comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling focusing on the influence of the disproportionally strong warming of the Arctic as caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Evidence is mounting, they show, that we likely meddle with circulation patterns high up in the sky. These are affecting, in turn, regional and local weather patterns – with sometimes disastrous effects on the ground. This has been the case with the 2016 wildfire in Canada, another team of scientists show in a second study.

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/planet-at-risk-of-heading-towards-irreversible-201chothouse-earth201d-state

Flipping the switch: making use of carbon price dollars for health and education

07/16/2018 - While health systems, clean water and education are a plain given in many parts of the world, millions of people still do not have sufficient access to these basic public goods. In fact, carbon prices could make substantial financial resources available for succeeding with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations, a team of scientists now finds. At the same time, carbon pricing could be a central contribution to meet global climate targets and limit global warming to well below 2°C until the end of the century.

Summer of extremes - PIK experts in the media

07/26/2018 - Everybody seems to be talking about the weather these days, with extreme heat in Germany and Europe, forest fires in Sweden, Greece and California. From Japan to the Arctic - the Northern hemisphere is currently experiencing a heat wave and experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK) were interviewed by numerous media outlets for an assessment of the current situation in the light of climate change.

What saved the West Antarctic Ice Sheet 10,000 years ago will not save it today

06/14/2018 - The retreat of the West Antarctic ice masses after the last Ice Age was reversed surprisingly about 10,000 years ago, scientists found. This is in stark contrast to previous assumptions. In fact, it was the shrinking itself that stopped the shrinking: relieved from the weight of the ice, the Earth crust lifted and triggered the re-advance of the ice sheet. However, this mechanism is much too slow to prevent dangerous sea-level rise caused by West Antarctica’s ice-loss in the present and near future. Only rapid greenhouse-gas emission reductions can.

Alumni return to PIK: New award facilitates research visits

07/20/2018 - The Potsdam Institute is keen to keep in touch with its alumni in Germany and all over the world, and has therefore set up a dedicated Alumni programme. Facilitated by funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the programme includes a "PIK Alumni Return Award" intended to enable former PIK scientists to return for a brief research visit to Potsdam. The next alumni-returnee will be Veronika Stolbova, at present a postdoc at the ETH Zurich. She will visit the institute to further advance research with PIK colleagues and give a presentation of her current work.

Potsdam experts in the German Coal Commission

07/13/2018 - The coal commission established by Germany’s Federal Government is seeking input from, amongst others, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. This Friday, the chief economist and director designate of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ottmar Edenhofer, gave a presentation in the panel. The focus was on the possibilities of a rapid reduction of greenhouse gases in the German energy system, to stabilize our climate. The acting Director and founder of PIK, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, is a full member of the 'Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment' – the official name of the committee –, and will be one of those to decide on its outcome at the end of the year.

New Report “The World in 2050”: Sustainable development experts meet in New York

07/10/2018 - From education and health to responsible consumption, a decarbonized energy-system, agriculture, sustainable cities and digitalization - six transformations are necessary to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations, a new report by leading experts in the field finds. Published at the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) in New York this week, the new report prepared by The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative outlines the key points that are necessary to bring the world on target to a sustainable future. More than 60 authors and 20 organizations were involved in the report, among them Johan Rockström, current Director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and designated Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), as well as PIK researchers Elmar Kriegler, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Alexander Popp.

Heat wave in California and heavy rain in Japan

09/07/2018 - Currently, California is confronted with extreme heat while Japan is hit by heavy rain. Stefan Rahmstorf, Earth System Analysis research domain co-chair at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Professor at the University of Potsdam comments on the issue.

„Scientific foundation for the Paris Agreement“: UNFCCC head Espinosa laudates climate economist Edenhofer

07/05/2018 - In recognition of his outstanding contributions to tackling the climate challenge, Ottmar Edenhofer has been awarded with the Romano Guardini Prize of the Catholic Academy in Bavaria. As chief economist and designated Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) as well as Founding Director of the Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Edenhofer has both advanced the science and served as a political advisor. The Prize has been handed over in Munich in a festive ceremony attended by more than 200 high-ranking guests from politics, science, business, and religion.

Clean power is not enough: More climate action in industry, transport and building sectors needed to meet Paris climate targets

06/25/2018 - Coal power versus wind and solar energy – debates about the Paris climate targets often centre around electricity supply. Yet, even in a world of stringent climate policies and a clean power generation, the remaining use of fossil fuels in industry, transport and heating in buildings could still cause enough CO2 emissions to endanger the climate targets agreed on by the international community, an international team of researchers finds. Published in Nature Climate Change, their elaborate study is the first to focus specifically on the residual fossil fuel emissions from sectors that are not as easily decarbonized as power generation.

Spacefood for cows: Industrial microbes could feed cattle, pigs and chicken with less damage to the environment

06/20/2018 - Deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, nitrogen pollution – today’s agricultural feed cultivation for cattle, pigs and chicken comes with tremendous impacts for the environment and climate. Cultivating feed in industrial facilities instead of on croplands might help to alleviate the critical implications in the agricultural food supply chain. Protein-rich microbes, produced in large-scale industrial facilities, are likely to increasingly replace traditional crop-based feed. A new study now published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology for the first time estimates the economic and environmental potential of feeding microbial protein to pigs, cattle and chicken on a global scale. The researchers find that by replacing only 2 percent of livestock feed by protein-rich microbes, more than 5 percent of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, global cropland area and global nitrogen losses could each be decreased.

Mix it: Policy combination needed to achieve climate targets along with sustainable development goals

06/20/2018 - A broad combination of policies might be best suited to help achieve both climate stabilization targets as well as most of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. These policies reach from straightforward CO2 pricing to regulation of water and forest protection, to lifestyle changes such as eating less meat, a new study shows. The scientists highlight the complex interplay between the different targets. A policy focused only on CO2 pricing would cost the least, they show, but would likely trigger substantial land-use changes.

Better be safe than sorry: economic optimization risks tipping of important Earth system elements

06/15/2018 - Optimizing economic welfare without constraints might put human well-being at risk, a new climate study argues. While being successful in bringing down costs of greenhouse gas reductions for instance, the concept of profit maximization alone does not suffice to avoid the tipping of critical elements in the Earth system which could lead to dramatic changes of our livelihood. The scientists use mathematical experiments to compare economic optimization to the governance concepts of sustainability and the more recent approach of a safe operating space for humanity. All of these turn out to have their benefits and deficits, yet the profit-maximizing approach shows the greatest likelihood of producing outcomes that harm people or the environment.

Long Night of Sciences in summer heat

06/14/2018 – Despite of the stifling heat, almost 2000 interested people from Berlin and Brandenburg visited the Telegraph Hill in Potsdam for this year’s Long Night of Sciences and explored the various offers of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the hill’s other research institutes, instead of jumping into one of the nearby lakes for some swimming.

PIKturing our future: The young scientists’ visions for the institute

06/05/2018 - Once a year, the doctoral candidates of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) gather to discuss their research and exchange ideas. This year’s "PhD day" aimed at giving young scientists the possibility to think about and discuss their visions, wishes and ideas for the future of the institute. What do young scientists need to be able to perform excellent science? In what areas do they need more support and in what way? How can they interact with society during their work?

Experts meet at Global Solutions Summit in Berlin

06/05/2018 - More than 1100 policy thinkers and policy leaders from all around the world came together recently at the Global Solutions Summit in Berlin to discuss crucial topics for global governance in the context of the next G20 summits in Argentina and Japan. Official delegates from the T20 Argentina and the T20 Japan, Nobel Laureates and high level speakers like German Chancellor Angela Merkel participated in the Berlin Summit of think tanks, policy makers, business leaders and NGOs.

German Federal Government appoints Schellnhuber to coal commission

06/06/2018 - The German Federal Government appointed Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to their coal commission. The high-ranking "commission for growth, structural change and employment" - so the official name - is supposed to present a strategy for coal until the end of this year. Fossil fuels are the cause for a significant part of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany and the world, and hence for climate risks. The composition of the expert panel had been in discussion for some time, it will be steered by no less than four ministries: Economic Affairs, Environment, Labour and Interior.

Stronger evidence for a weaker Atlantic overturning

04/11/2018. The Atlantic overturning – one of Earth’s most important heat transport systems, pumping warm water northwards and cold water southwards – is weaker today than any time before in more than 1000 years. Sea surface temperature data analysis provides new evidence that this major ocean circulation has slowed down by roughly 15 percent since the middle of the 20th century, according to a study published in the highly renowned journal Nature by an international team of scientists. Human-made climate change is a prime suspect for these worrying observations.

China floods to hit US economy: climate effects through trade chains

05/28/2018 - Intensifying river floods could lead to regional production losses worldwide caused by global warming. This might not only hamper local economies around the globe – the effects might also propagate through the global network of trade and supply chains, a study now published in Nature Climate Change shows. It is the first to assess this effect for flooding on a global scale, using a newly developed dynamic economic model. It finds that economic flood damages in China, which could, without further adaption, increase by 80 percent within the next 20 years, might also affect EU and US industries. The US economy might be specifically vulnerable due to its unbalanced trade relation with China. Contrary to US president Trump’s current tariff sanctions, the study suggests that building stronger and thus more balanced trade relations might be a useful strategy to mitigate economic losses caused by intensifying weather extremes.

Wealth inequality: closing the gap by taxing land and bequests

22/03/2018 - To reduce wealth inequality without diminishing the economic performance of a country, a policy package of bequest taxes and land value taxes could be the optimal solution. Such a policy package would, in fact, have a strong advantage over corporate taxation, a new study published in the journal International Tax and Public Finance finds. It is the first analysis to include the so far neglected factor of land for tackling wealth inequality. Land is of great interest for studying inequality as climate change might increase land prices and thereby affect housing costs. The cost increase could be countered by smart taxes that would at the same time reduce overall inequality in a country, and hence possibly help to reduce tensions in society that are amplified by populism.

"Consulted by the Pope": Catholic Academy of Bavaria honours climate economist Edenhofer

05/16/2018 - The Catholic Academy of Bavaria honours the climate economist Ottmar Edenhofer with its Romano Guardini Prize. "As a renowned economist, committed political advisor, and public admonisher, Ottmar Edenhofer has restlessly pointed to climate change as one of the most pressing problems on Earth, and has proposed concrete solutions," the Academy explained. "Not least Pope Francis was seeking Ottmar Edenhofer’s advice repeatedly and intensively for his encyclical Laudato Si. Both are convinced that environmental degradation and poverty are closely intertwined problems that can only be resolved together in the 'concern about our common house'.” Edenhofer is Chief Economist and designated new Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), a member of Leibniz Association; as well he is Director of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) and Professor at Technische Universität Berlin (TUB).

PIK experts at the intersessional climate conference in Bonn

11/05/2018 - In the run-up to this year´s UN climate conference in Katowice in Poland, about 3000 experts and observers met in Bonn to discuss how to implement the Paris Agreement which is to enter into force in 2020. Two key elements of these “intersessionals” were the progress in advancing the Paris Agreement “rulebook”, and the initial in-person phase of the Talanoa dialogue that was introduced at COP23 last year. Several scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) took part in various meetings and presentations in Bonn.

Early Summer Monsoon forecast for India

05/07/2018 - the Indian Summer Monsoon will likely reach Central India between 11 and 19 June, according to the new forecast method developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The unique forecast had been developed specially for the central part of India where, before, early forecasting has never been made. The novel approach based on an analysis of observational data allows predicting the monsoon onset date 40 days in advance. Elena Surovyatkina leads the forecasts that showed to be successful already two years in a row. The monsoon onset date is of crucial importance for hundreds of millions of people in India. Climate change affects monsoon variability and hence makes accurate forecasting even more important.

Bankers, UN and scientists help assess climate risks for finance

04/26/2018 - Together, 16 banks, the United Nations, business consultants and scientists produced first guidance to help the financial industry become more transparent on climate-related risks and opportunities. The report they jointly published, entitled “Extending our horizons”, is based on economic scenarios provided by the Potsdam Instititute for Climate Impact Research, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and the International Energy Agency. The innovative methodology will support banks to implement the ground-breaking recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (FSB TCFD). It focuses on changes that the transition to a low-carbon economy will present to businesses. A complementary report on the physical impacts of climate change for businesses is planned for release in late June.

Girls'Day: PIK opens up doors and new perspectives to young and female future scientists

26/04/2018 - At this year's Girls'Day, schoolgirls from Berlin and Brandenburg had once again the opportunity to get to know the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and career perspectives in science. About their research on climate change and their work as a researcher at PIK, Levke Caesar and Christina Roolfs reported to the 19 pupils participating. The action day was initiated to open up new career perspectives in mathematical and the natural sciences for girls and young women.

More than 14.000 Earth scientists meet in Vienna

06/04/2018 - The European Geophysical Union’s (EGU) general assembly in Vienna is one of the world's greatest scientific events – from 8 to 13 April, it attracts more than 14.000 scientists. Numerous experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) give talks and participate in debates. A distinguished role is attributed to Stefan Rahmstorf, co-chair of PIK’s Earth System Analysis department, research domain 1. He has been asked to hold the first-ever EGU public lecture at the Vienna Museum for Natural History: “After Paris: Can we still control the climate crisis?”

Edenhofer and Foreign Minister Maas visit the United Nations

29/03/2018 - The designated Director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Ottmar Edenhofer, accompanied the new Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on his first visit to the United Nations in New York. Edenhofer was the only guest of the ministerial delegation. Germany seeks a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in 2019 and 2020. Minister Maas held a number of talks and campaigned for strengthening the United Nations in times of national unilateralist leanings.

Stock-take 2018: Rapid emissions reductions would keep CO2 removal and costs in check

03/29/2018 - Rapid greenhouse-gas emissions reductions are needed if governments want to keep in check both the costs of the transition towards climate stabilization and the amount of removing already emitted CO2 from the atmosphere. To this end, emissions in 2030 would need to be at least 20 percent below what countries have pledged under the Paris climate agreement, a new study finds – an insight that is directly relevant for the global stock-take scheduled for the UN climate summit in Poland later this year. Removing CO2 from the atmosphere through technical methods including carbon capture and underground storage (CCS) or increased use of plants to suck up CO2 comes with a number of risks and uncertainties, and hence the interest of limiting them.

Worldbank report with PIK: climate change can trigger migration of millions

19/03/2018 - Climate change is a driver of future migration – in a worst-case scenario, it could force more than 100 million people out of their homes by 2050. This is shown by a groundbreaking Worldbank report, co-authored by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Subsaharan Africa and Southern Asia are among the most affected regions, to a lesser extent also Latin America. Water scarcity and yield failures are, along with a number of other economical and social factors, becoming more and more relevant for migration within countries. This so-called internal migration is the subject of the report. However, rapid reductions of greenhouse-gas emissions can reduce this future migration by up to 80 percent, according to the report.

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