A climate-neutral pathway makes 90 percent of fossil fuels in the EU redundant by 2050

“Our study shows that a cost-effective transition to climate neutrality could make around 90 percent of today’s fossil fuel use in the EU redundant by mid-century. Most of this transformation can be achieved through renewable electricity and electrification, with bioenergy and green hydrogen providing additional contributions in specific sectors,” says PIK researcher Felix Schreyer, lead author of the study published in Nature Communications. This scenario takes into account all relevant technologies, and is characterised by the lowest transformation costs. “A far-reaching phase-out of fossil fuels is therefore also the most economically efficient strategy for ambitious climate mitigation,” Schreyer adds.

The PIK research team gives us the first glimpse of how EU climate neutrality scenarios with a far-reaching and near-total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 might look. “We show that even a near-total phase-out, with a reduction of up to 99 percent in fossil fuel use, is technically possible. But it would require major additional efforts and rapid growth of new technologies for producing CO₂-neutral energy carriers,” says PIK researcher Gunnar Luderer, also an author of the study.

Advancing renewables and electrification key to phasing out fossil fuels in the EU

Using REMIND, PIK’s energy–economy model, the researchers analyse how different energy system transformation pathways can deliver a climate-neutral EU by 2050. Their cost-effective scenario still includes around 10 percent residual fossil fuel demand, with associated emissions being fully offset through carbon capture and storage. These residual fossil fuels are mainly used in the chemical industry, as well as in aviation and maritime transport.

Achieving a complete fossil fuel phase-out by 2050 would require, in addition, a rapid and large-scale expansion of CO₂-neutral e-fuels: carbon-based energy sources produced from green (electricity-based) hydrogen and atmospheric CO₂. They tend to be expensive, but could replace fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. While this approach would increase transformation costs, it would also reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports and lower the need for underground carbon storage.

“Driven by technological advances in wind and solar energy and electrification, for example through e-mobility or heat pumps, a realistic and cost-effective fossil fuel phase-out is now within reach,” says Schreyer. However, the authors emphasise that to effectively leverage these technological developments, near-term policy measures and investments must be consistently aligned with the long-term goal of climate neutrality. “And every unit of fossil fuel avoided makes Europe more independent and its energy system more resilient,” adds Luderer.