Europe

Climate change is already evident in Europe, with temperatures rising faster than the global average, changing rainfall patterns, and a more intense hydrological cycle. In many regions, for example, groundwater and soil moisture are declining, while vegetation zones and growing seasons are shifting.
These changes call for a range of adaptation and mitigation strategies to enable climate‑neutral and risk‑resilient development. To achieve this, it is essential to assess climate‑related risks and the economic costs of their impacts. These assessments go hand in hand with modeling decarbonisation pathways and developing cross‑border management approaches for forests, agriculture, and water resources.

Our work in Europe

Assessing risks from natural disasters and climate extremes is closely linked to estimating both the direct and indirect costs of climate impacts. Our research develops methods and tools to evaluate these risks and costs across different sectors and regions. To support a climate‑smart transformation, we integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into practical solutions that guide planning and decision‑making. This process also involves examining trade‑offs and synergies between different measures through dialogue with all stakeholders.

Beyond addressing socio‑economic transformations, we explore how human and natural systems can be managed sustainably under changing climatic conditions. Resilient forests and agricultural landscapes are vital for both delivering renewable resources—such as engineered timber for sustainable construction—and maintaining ecosystem services like carbon storage. By modelling alternative management scenarios, we provide a scientific basis for informed, long‑term decisions.

Finally, not only climate impacts within the European territory affect European societies but also impacts occurring outside of Europe that propagate through trade, supply and value chains, financial networks and migration into Europe. Such remote impacts are covered through complex modelling chains involving climate, biophysical climate impact and socioeconomic models that allow to quantify impacts and explore adaptation responses to them.

Selected projects

Selected references

  • Auer C, CPO Reyer, W Adamczak, C Aylett, M Benzie, J-P Bernd, DN Bresch, F Bosello, G Bressan, TR Carter, S Croft, E Delpiazzo, S Desmidt, A Detges, A Duranovic, S Fronzek, K Harris, M Hilden, L Jarzabek, R Key, R King, P Kivimaa, RJT Klein, H Knaepen, G Lahn, P Magnuszewski, M Mikaelsson, I Monasterolo, C Mosoni, IM Otto, R Parrado, S Pitzen, B Pohl, O Puig, H Saes-Heibel, E Stokeld, S Talebian, F Tondel, R Townend, C West, E Woertz, N Wunderling (2025) Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
  • Costafreda-Aumedes, S., Leolini, L., Menz, C., Yang, C., Argenti, G., Dibari, C., … Moriondo, M. (2025). Uncertainties in predicting the medium-term future occurrence of grapevine budburst in Europe: the role of phenological models and climate scenarios. OENO One, 59(2). https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2025.59.2.8056
  • Fernandes, A., Kovač, N., Fraga, H., Fonseca, A., Šućur Radonjić, S., Simeunović, M., Ratković, K., Menz, C., Costafreda-Aumedes, S., Santos, J. A. (2024): Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change. - ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 13, 8, 270. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13080270
  • Gregor K, CPO Reyer, T Nagel, A Mäkelä, T Knoke, A Rammig (2024). Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies. Global Change Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17431
  • Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V. (2024): Impact attribution: exploring the contribution of climate change to recent trends in hydrological processes—an editorial introduction. - Climatic Change, 177, 172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03804-4
  • Hattermann, F. F., Wortmann, M., Liersch, S., Toumi, R., Sparks, N., Genillard, C., Schröter, K., Steinhausen, M., Gyalai-Korpos, M., Máté, K., Hayes, B., Rivas López, M. d. R., Racz, T., Nielsen, M. R., Kaspersen, P. S., Drews, M. (2018): Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model. - Climate Services, 12, 14-26.
  • Hoffmann, P., Lehmann, J., Fallah, B. H., Hattermann, F. F. (2021): Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks. - Scientific Reports, 11, 22893.
  • Hattermann, F. F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, F., Gosling, S. N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Yang, T., Krysanova, V. (2018): Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 1, 015006.
  • Strefler J, Merfort L, Bauer N, Stevanović M, Tänzler D, Humpenöder F, Klein D, Luderer G, Pehl M, Pietzcker R, Popp A, Rodrigues R, Rottoli M, Kriegler E (2024) Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change  are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions. Nature Communications 15:8440
  • Suškevičs, M., Karner, K., Bethwell, C., Danzinger, F., Kay, S., Nishizawa, T., Schuler, J., Sepp, K., Värnik, R., Glemnitz, M., Semm, M., Umstätter, C., Conradt, T., Herzog, F., Klein, N., Wrbka, T., Zander, P., Schönhart, M. (2023): Stakeholder perceptions of agricultural landscape services, biodiversity, and drivers of change in four European case studies. - Ecosystem Services, 64, 101563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2023.101563