PIK researchers issue new early forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon

There are two major problems caused by monsoon rains. First, although the rainy season happens annually, the time of monsoon season’s onset and withdrawal varies within a month from year to year. Such variability strongly affects agriculture, the management of water resources and food security. Second, with climate change, the intensity of monsoon rainfalls that could lead to floods and disasters is increasing, especially at the beginning of monsoons. The most afflicted region is Central India, which is currently suffering from severe drought before the monsoon starts.

"Since 2016, I issue such a forecast for the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the south-eastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E). This year, I started to test a forecast for Telangana state (17.5°N, 80°E): I estimated the date monsoon onset for Telangana as between 8th and 16th of June," says  Surovyatkina. Even though those two regions are neighbouring, there is a considerable difference in the interplay of two branches of Monsoon (one from the Arabian Sea and another from the Bay of Bengal) in these regions. In some years monsoon onset appears at the same date in two regions, in other years it appears with a difference of 6-10 days. When the monsoon is advancing, pre-monsoon showers are a common phenomenon in Telangana. This is why the forecast for the Telangana region is challenging. However, as Telangana is the 'Seed Bowl' of India, monsoon forecast is vital for the state. The export of seeds can create economic opportunities for small and marginal farmers.

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