Early Summer Monsoon forecast for India

05.07.2018 - PIK-News: The Indian Summer Monsoon will likely reach Central India between 11 and 19 June, according to the new forecast method developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The unique forecast had been developed specially for the central part of India where, before, early forecasting has never been made. The novel approach based on an analysis of observational data allows predicting the monsoon onset date 40 days in advance. Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina leads the forecasts that showed to be successful already two years in a row. The monsoon onset date is of crucial importance for hundreds of millions of people in India. Climate change affects monsoon variability and hence makes accurate forecasting even more important.
Early Summer Monsoon forecast for India
PIK - Monsoon Onset Forecast for Central India, 2018 (Image: PIK/Surovyatkina)

The four-month-long rainy season of the Indian Summer Monsoon, or Southwest Monsoon, is the most anticipated and economically important weather phenomenon to affect the Indian subcontinent. With 70% of the 1.3 billion population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, India is heavily dependent on the annual monsoon rainfall.

In pre-monsoon season temperature increases across parts of India. In May 2016, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51 degrees Celsius. This year, the thermometer has regularly reached more than 40 degrees across many parts across India, with the highest temperature recorded so far of 45 degrees in central parts of the country. In such severe conditions the whole country is waiting for the monsoon.” When does monsoon start?” - is the most vital question now.

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