Dr. Nicolas Koch is Head of the "Policy Evaluation Lab" at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He is also a Research Fellow at IZA and RWI. His core expertise is the empirical assessment of climate policies using rigorous methodologies for causal impact evaluation.
Nicolas is an environmental economist drawing from the fields of urban and transportation economics, health economics, and applied microeconomics in general. His research combines methodologies for causal impact and welfare analysis with the power of big data to improve public policy making on pressing environmental policy challenges. His scholarly interests range widely in topics. Specific areas in which he conducted research include the effectiveness of climate policy instruments (and carbon pricing, in particular), the social costs of air pollution, environmental challenges from road transportation, the distributional impacts of various environmental policies, and the benefits of forest conservation policies.
His work has been published, amongst others, in AEJ: Economic Policy, Science, PNAS, Nature Climate Change, Nature Energy, JAERE, JEEM, and JUE. He is a contributing author to UNEP Emission Gap Report and in the steering committee of the What Works Climate Solutions Initiative. He is Principle Investigator on “Climate Policy for Transport” in the BMBF-funded Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne, Germany’s largest social science Energiewende research project.
Nicolas received his PhD in Economics from the University of Hamburg in 2013.
The Transatlantic Seminar on Environmental and Energy Economics (TSEE)
I co-founded and co-organize the TSEE series with Anna Alberini (Maryland), Antonio Bento (USC), Davide Cerruti (WU Wien), and Marion Leroutier (CREST-ENSAE). Check out our schedule and sign up here!
Kontakt
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
Research Affiliate at RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
Research Fellow at IZA - Institute of Labor Economics
Selected publications
For a complete list of publications, please visit my Google Scholar profile.
EU-ETS emergency reserve price curbs coal use and shields consumers during natural gas price shocks
with Antonio Bento and Zissis Marmarelis
Nature Communications (2026)
[Published Paper][Data and code]
Heat and experienced racial segregation
with Till Baldenius and Hannah Klauber
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2025)
[Published Paper][Preprint]
Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
with Annika Stechemesser, Ebba Mark, Patick Klösel, Daniel Nachtigall, Felix Pretis, Nolan Ritter, Moritz Schwarz et al.
Science (2024)
[Published Paper][Preprint][Data and code][Interactiv web dashboard]
MMedia: [New York Times][Financial Times][Wall Street Journal][Washington Post][NewScientist][Associated Press][CNN][CBC][The Economist][The Times][El Mundo][Le Monde][L’Express][France Culture][ORF][Der Standard][Spiegel][Zeit][FAZ][SZ][zdf][Deutschlandfunk][Nature News]
Killing Prescriptions Softly: Low Emission Zones and Child Health from Birth to School
with Hannah Klauber, Felix Holub, Nico Pestel, Nolan Ritter, and Alexander Rohlf
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2024)
[Published Paper][IZA Discussion Paper][Data and code]
Media: [Spiegel][Focus][ÄrzteZeitung]
Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing
with Niklas Döbbeling-Hildebrandt, Klaas Miersch, Tarun M. Khanna et al.
Nature Communications (2024)
[Published Paper][Data and code]
The Welfare Costs of Job Loss and Decarbonization– Evidence from Germany's Coal Phase Out
with Luke Haywood, and Markus Janser
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (2024)
[Published Paper][IZA Discussion Paper][Data and code]; related paper on early retirement program in [Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik] (German only)
Media: [IZA Newsroom][WiWo][klimareporter][Bertelsmann Stiftung][Makronom]
Spillovers to manufacturing plants from multi-million dollar plantations: evidence from the Indonesian palm oil boom
with Sebastian Kraus, and Robert Heilmayr
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (2024)
[Published Paper][Working Paper][Data and code]
The Effects of Cash for Clunkers on Local Air Quality
with Ines Helm, Alexander Rohlf
Journal of Urban Economics (2023)
[Published Paper][CESifo Working Paper] [IZA Discussion Paper]
Attributing agnostically-detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes
with Lennard Naumann, Felix Pretis, Nolan Ritter, and Moritz Schwarz
Nature Energy (2022)
[Published Paper][Preprint][Data and code]
Media: [Deutschlandfunk] [WDR] [Bild der Wissenschaft] [Der Standard] [Morning News]
No aggregate deforestation reductions from rollout of community land titles in Indonesia yet
with Sebastian Kraus, Jacqueline Liu, and Sabine Fuss
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021)
[Published Paper][Data and code]
Media: [Mongabay] [Sina.com](Chinese)
Provisional COVID-19 infrastructure induces large, rapid increases in cycling
with Sebastian Kraus
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021)
[Published Paper][Preprint][Data and code]
Media: [NYT][Süddeutsche][Forbes][Video]
Politics matters: Regulatory events as catalysts for price formation under cap-and-trade
with Godefroy Grosjean, Sabine Fuss, and Ottmar Edenhofer
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2016)
[Published Paper]
Media: [Carbon Pulse]
Recent working papers
Carbon Pricing and Household Finance: How Banks Price Transition Risk in Auto Loans
with Philip Fliegel, Achim Hagen, Nolan Ritter
[CESifo Working Paper]
The Immediate and Lasting Effects of Heat Waves On Workers
with Hannah Klauber and Nico Pestel
[IZA Discussion Paper]
Levers for Change? The Welfare Effects of a Large-scale Public Transport Subsidy in Germany
with Maximilian Amberg
[available upon request]
Determinants of Heat Risk in an Aging Population: A Machine Learning Approach
with Hannah Klauber
[IZA Discussion Paper] [related Published Paper (German only)] [Interactive Web-Tool]
Media: [Deutschlandfunk] [Zeit (article)] [Zeit (visualization)] [FAZ] [Tagesspiegel] [Ärztezeitung]
Machine Learning from Big GPS Data about the Heterogeneous Costs of Congestion
with Nolan Ritter, Alexander Rohlf, and Ben Thies
[Working Paper]
The Welfare Impact of Using Second-Best Uniform Taxes to Address Traffic Congestion
with Johanna Arlinghaus
[Working Paper]
What If Working from Home Will Stick? Distributional and Climate Impacts for Germany
with Marion Bachelet, Matthias Kalkuhl
[IZA Discussion Paper]
Media: IZA Newsroom, WiWo
Contributions to recent policy debates (mainly German)
Impacts of the Deutschlandticket
- Ariadne D-Ticket Impact Tracker und Ariadne Kompakt "Wirkung des Deutschlandtickets auf Mobilität und Emissionen"; Medien: FAZ, Spiegel, Tagesspiegel, BR, Clean Energy Wire
Klimaschädliche Subventionen im Verkehr
- Ariadne Kurzdossier und Ariadne Kompakt "Klimaschädliche Subventionen entsprechen negativen CO2-Preisen" (mit Patrick Plötz, Stefan Bach, et al.); Medien: Deutschlandfunk, Zeit, Süddeutsche, Tagesspiegel, taz, der Freitag, 3sat, ZDF, Lage der Nation
Impacts of EU combustion engine ban in Germany
- [Ariadne Analyse] "Klima- und Verteilungswirkung eines Verbrenner-Neuzulassungsverbots von Pkw in Deutschland und die Rolle des CO2-Preises"
Distributional impacts of climate policy in transport sector
- [ifo Schnelldienst Paper] "Ordnungsrecht versus Preisinstrumente" [Replication Code]; Medien: FAZ (print only), taz, ZDF
- [Ariadne Analyse] "Zielerreichung nur mit unbequemen Maßnahmen möglich" (with Sebastian Levi et al.); Medien: Spiegel, Tagesspiegel Background
“FAIRCLIP: Stranded assets, financial constraints, and the distributional impacts of climate policy” funded by Leibniz Collaborative Excellence - Co-Project Leader
"CERES: Political Economy for Inclusive Wealth Governance and Sustainability, funded by Werner Siemens Fundation - Principal Investigator
"EVIDENCE: Evidenzbasierte Forschung zu Politikreformen für mehr Klimaschutz in Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern" funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) - Principal Investigator
"MELIUS: Verbesserung der Versorgungssituation für Allergiker*innen bei geänderten UMwELtbedinIngUngen im Rahmen des Klimawandel" funded by the Innovation Committee of the Federal Joint Committee - Co-Project Leader
“Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne: Evidenzbasiertes Assessment für die Gestaltung der deutschen Energiewende“ funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) - Work Package Leader
“Green & Inclusive Mobility Project” funded by the Sustainability Council of the Volkswagen Group - Project Leader
“The Next Generation Policy Project” funded by the Sustainability Council of the Volkswagen Group - Project Leader
“START: Australian-German Energy Transition Hub” funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) - Work Package Leader
“RESTORE+: Addressing Landscape Restoration on Degraded Land in Indonesia and Brazil” funded by the Internationale Klimaschutzinitiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) - Co-Principal Investigator
