Prof. Elena Surovyatkina

Senior scientist
Prof. Elena Surovyatkina



2005 Habilitation in theoretical physics (D.Sc.), Russian Academy of Sciences, Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia      
Title of the dissertation: Fluctuations and noise-dependent phenomena at quasi-stationary and dynamical bifurcation transitions
1996 Ph. D. in theoretical physics, Moscow State Pedagogical University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Moscow, Russia.
Title of the dissertation: Dynamical bifurcations in presence of noise 
1986 M. S. in Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Moscow State Pedagogical University, Moscow, Russia         


Elena Surovyatkina has her expertise in theoretical physics in the field of theory of critical phenomena. She has contributed to the understanding of critical transitions with the new theory of Nonlinear saturation of pre-bifurcation noise amplification and the rise of the correlation time. Obtained theoretical findings gave rise to a series of new results in different fields such as: 

- Cardiac Dynamics,

- Liquid Crystals Dynamics,

- Climate Dynamics, Monsoon forecasting,

- Thermoacoustic Instability.

In particular, she revealed that the multistability (a coexistence of several types of rhythms) is an intrinsic property of a human cardiac cell. She discovered new phenomena of overcooling and overheating of Critical Temperatures in the Landau-de Gennes theory of Liquid Crystals. Recently, she proposed the method of Nonlinear control of Thermoacoustic Instability based on the rate-depended phenomena. Currently, her research is devoted to the spatially organized critical transitions in Climate. The most significant contribution in climate dynamics is a new methodology of the earliest forecast of the Indian summer monsoon.


 EPICC - East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities

The project can also be found under the name"Climate Capacity Building: Risk Anticipation and Minimization". It is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag.

Within the EPICC, Elena Surovyatkina is a Leader of the group of Indian Monsoon forecasting. Her aim is to provide the Indian population with a long-term forecast of the onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) for the central part of India. The long-term forecast means 40 days in advance for the onset date, and 70 days in advance for the withdrawal date. In 2016 -2018 she proved that such early prediction of the monsoon timing is possible. Her earliest forecast is spreading over India for taking appropriate decisions at various levels from farmers' fields to the Government of India.

 Related information:




Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2056
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam

J. Tony, S Subarna, K. S. Syamkumar, G. Sudha, S. Akshay, E. A. Gopalakrishnan, E. Surovyatkina & R. I. Sujith. Experimental investigation on preconditioned rate induced tipping in a thermoacoustic system . Scientific Reports 2017 Jul 14; 7(1):5414. , doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-05814-y

Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths. Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1–9, 2016, doi:10.1002/2016GL068392

Apala Majumdar, John Ockendon, Peter Howell and Elena Surovyatkina. Transitions through Critical Temperatures in Nematic Liquid Crystals. OCCAM, 12/90, Oxford University, 25 c, 2012.

Apala Majumdar, John Ockendon, Peter Howell and Elena Surovyatkina. Transitions through Critical Temperatures in Nematic Liquid Crystals. Phys. Rev. E. 88, 022501 (2013),

Elena Surovyatkina. Bifurcations and Multistability in Periodically Stimulated Cardiac Cells. In E. Mosekilde et al. (eds), Biosimulation in Biomedical Research, Health Care and Drug Development (pp. 253-284), DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7091-0418-7_12, Springer-Verlag/Wien 2012

E. Surovyatkina, D. Noble, D. Gavaghan, A. Sher. Multistability Property in Cardiac Ionic Models of Mammalian and Human Ventricular Cells. Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology, 103 (2010) 131-141 ( , DOI:10.1016/j.pbiomolbio.2010.01.004).

Elena Surovyatkina, Roman Egorchenkov, and Guennady Ivanov. Multistability as intrinsic property of a single cardiac cell: a simulation study. IEEE EMBS, V. 1-4244-0788-5/07, 927-930, 2007.

E. D. Surovyatkina, Growth and nonlinear saturation of fluctuations in a nonlinear oscillator at the threshold of a bifurcation of spontaneous symmetry breaking. Radiophysics and Quantum Electronics, An Imprint of Springer Verlag, New York, 2005, 48 (5), 381 - 389.(

S. Berczynski, Yu. A. Kravtsov, J. Pejas, E. D. Surovyatkina. Secure data transmission via modulation of the chaotic sequence parameters, in: Enhanced Methods in Computer Security, Biometric and Artificial Intelligence Systems, Je. Pejas, A. Piegat, (Eds.), Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 2005.

E. D. Surovyatkina, Yu. A. Kravtsov and J. Kurths, Fluctuation growth and saturation in nonlinear oscillator on the threshold of bifurcation of spontaneous symmetry breaking, Phys. Rev. E, 72, 046125, 2005.

E. Surovyatkina, Prebifurcation noise amplification and noise-dependent hysteresis as indicators of bifurcations in nonlinear geophysical systems, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2005, 12, 25-29 (

E. D. Surovyatkina, Phenomenon of Prebifurcation Rise and Saturation of the Correlation Time, Physics Letters A, 2004, 329 (3), 169-172.

Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, Nonlinear Saturation of Prebifurcation Noise Amplification, Physics Letters A, 2003, 319 (3-4), 348-351.

S. G. Bilchinskaya, O. Ya  Butkovskii, Yu. A. Kravtsov, M. B. Kapranov, A. Morozov, E. D. Surovyatkina, Signal Retrieval Errors in Data Transmission Using Parameters Modulation of Chaotic Sequences, J. Comm. Technol. Electron., 2003, 48 (3), 284-292.

Yu. A. Kravtsov , O. Ya. Butkovskii, S. G. Bilchinskaya, E. D. Surovyatkina Peculiarities of Fast Bifurcation Transitions in Presence of Noise, Physics of Vibrations, 2002, 10 (1),  54-59.

S. G. Bilchinskaya, O. Ya. Butkovskii, I. A. Rychka, Yu. A. Kravtsov and E. D. Surovyatkina, Violation of the Probabilistic Symmetry of Periodic Regimes while Rapidly Passing though a Zone of Chaos into the Transparency Window, JETP, 2002, 95 (1), 175-180.

Yu. A. Kravtsov, S. G. Bilchinskaya, O. Ya. Butkovskii, I. A. Rychka, and E. D. Surovyatkina, Prebifurcational Noise Rise in Nonlinear Systems, JETP, 2001, 93 (6), 1323-1329.

O. Ya. Butkovskii, R. N. Ivanov, Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, I. A. Rychka, Attraction Basins of Final States of Coupled System with Variable Parameters Under Period Doubling Bifurcations, Physics of Vibrations, 2001, 9 (3), 156-162.

O. Ya. Butkovskii, Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, Use of hysteresis in bifurcation systems for noise measurement. Techn. Physics, 1997, 42, 1099-2002.

O. Ya. Butkovskii, Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, The structure of the basins of attraction for final states of doubling  period bifurcation systems with time varying parameters, JETP, 1998, 86 (1), 206-212.

L. A. Anosov, O. Ya. Butkovskii, Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, Lagging correlations between noise and prediction errors in chaotic systems. J. Comm. Technol. Electron., 1996, 41 (11), 1002-1004.

O. Ya. Butkovskii, J. S. Brush, Yu. A. Kravtsov, E. D. Surovyatkina, Probabilistic symmetry breaking under fast bifucational transitions, JETP, 1996, 82 (6), 1186-1189.

1.     Elena Surovyatkina. Prediction of Indian summer monsoon: from Complex Network to Tipping elements approach, ICTS, Bangalore, India, 26th June, 2018 ,

2.     Elena Surovyatkina. Tipping Elements Approach for Forecasting Monsoon in Central India: Results 2016 – 2018. TROPMET 2018, India, 22-24 October 2018. Invited talk

3. Elena Surovyatkina. Monsoon Forecast under Climate Change. Science Circle Lecture. Lecture at the German Embassy on 16th October 2018, Invited Lecture,

 4. Elena Surovyatkina. Monsoon Forecast Under Climate Change, Indian Meteorological Society. Delhi, India, 22th June, 2018, Invited lecture