Summary Report No. 25


The development of climate scenarios

P. C. Werner, F.-W. Gerstengarbe (January 1997)

A new method for producing regional climate scenarios is presented.The basic idea is to describe future climate developments by using statistical methods in a special way. The starting point for this procedure is the coupling of one selected forecast of a climate model with any number of long-term, observed data series for the investigation area. This leads to a scenario-like description of the future climate. The quality of the method is proved by a verification example. Subsequently, the method is used to calculate a scenario for the Brandenburg region between 1996 and 2050.