Anticipatory planning for the development pillar

On behalf of the UN High-level Committee on Programmes (HLCP), which was subsequently endorsed by the UN Chief Executive Board (CEB), UNHCR was tasked to initiate an inter-agency, inter-pillar predictive analytics project. In the face of growing and interlinked risks in the Sahel, this project aims to increase the UN’s preparedness capacity, enabling more robust and effective responses to challenges within the “triple nexus” (i.e. humanitarian, development, peace-building). This project seeks to increase the availability of high-quality data and to develop predictive models that show where risk hot spots are likely to emerge in the Sahel, with particular attention to how climate change and disasters may contribute to new or exacerbated risks in these areas. This project supports UNISS/UNOWAS and the work of the Special Coordinator for the Development in the Sahel, in promoting data-driven and evidence-based analyses and programming as bases for convening and alignment with national, regional and international partners.

The project aims to achieve the following key objectives: • A centralized, public data platform with high quality and timely data will benefit researchers, UN agencies and local authorities, and enhance collaboration. • Standards for high quality data across the Sahel. The academic experts involved in this project will work with UN agencies to ensure a minimum required quality standard for data sets used in this project. • Predictive models based on aggregated high-quality data. In cooperation with leading researchers, three models will be developed covering challenges in the triple nexus. The models will project gridded population distribution, conflict and crop suitability. • An expert consortium consisting of academic research groups and experts based in the region, including professors at regional universities, as well as regional governmental institutions and UN staff. • The availability of high-quality data, the three predictive models and subsequent policy recommendations aim to enhance the capacity of local authorities to plan and anticipate future changes before climate change related impacts threaten people's lives or livelihoods. • This project brings together the expertise and data of different initiatives present in the Sahel to enhance communication and best practices, create and work towards common goals and outcomes, and Support coherence w/ UNSDCFs in the Sahel.

PIK will model climate change scenarios for the Sahel and their impacts on agriculture and food security, linked to migration. • Activity: Compile and standardize historic datasets related to crop production and crop suitability. • Output: Historic data delivered in a standardized gridded digital format for countries in the Sahel • Activity: Create models to predict future crop production and suitability based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). • Output: Projections of crop productivity and suitability for countries in the Sahel delivered in a gridded format Working closely with national and international stakeholders, PIK will map the data availability and accessibility in the region. Based on the modeling and meta data analysis conducted, PIK will develop strategic recommendations on how the collected data can be used to assess crop production and crop suitability, what data gaps exist and what steps would be needed to close/compensate those data gaps.


Jun 01, 2021 until Dec 31, 2021


83.750 €

Funding Agency



Sophie von Loeben