ReKliEs-De: Future climate trends in Germany

12/11/2017 - More heat-waves and heavy rainfalls, fewer cold spells, an increase in the annual mean temperature by 4°C, this is how the climate in Germany could evolve until the year 2100 in a scenario of unabated climate change - with massive consequences for agriculture and public health. These are the results of the project ReKliEs-De ("Regional Climate Projections Ensemble for Germany") which for the first time estimates current climate projections for the German federal states and river basins. The prospects for Germany in a business as usual scenario are severe - if no active countermeasures will be taken. However, the results also show that if all climate protection agreements will be consistently implemented, the two-degree target agreed in Paris is still achievable.
ReKliEs-De: Future climate trends in Germany
Time curve of the annual mean temperature change in the scenarios RCP8.5 (red) and RCP2.6 (blue). Fig. 1 of the ReKliEs-De report

"The high-resolution simulation results and evaluations within the ReKliEs-De project for the first time show for Germany as a whole what it could mean not to take climate protection seriously. Very likely, extremely hot summers like the one in 2003 would be part of normality from 2050 onwards if we do not now set the course for stronger climate protection," says Peter Hoffmann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the ReKliEs-De report. Over the past three years, ReKliEs-De has created a unique database for climate change research. By comparing the two scenarios "business as usual" (RCP8.5) and "climate protection" (RCP2.6), the project results provide key information for decision-makers in Germany so that they can base their decisions on the best scientific findings on climate protection and climate adaptation.

The joint project ReKliEs-De was initiated in 2014 by the Federal States of Germany to meet the need for knowledge relevant to political consulting. Christoph Menz and Arne Spekat from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) were also involved in the project, which was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and coordinated by the Hessian Agency for Nature Conservation, Environment and Geology (HLNUG). Further partners were the Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Germany's National Meteorological Service, the German Climate Computing Center, and the University of Hohenheim.

Link to the ReKliEs-De report:

Press release on ReKliEs-De:

Link to the results and manual of ReKliEs-De: