PIK assessment on COP30 closing

Johan Rockström, Earth system scientist and PIK Director:

"Ten years after Paris, COP30 was declared to be the COP of 'truth and implementation'. Scientifically, this was an appropriate label. But leaders gathered in Belém failed to fulfil this promise. The 'truth' is that our only chance of 'keeping 1.5°C within reach', is to bend the global curve of emissions downward in 2026 and then reduce emissions by at least 5% per year. 'Implementation' requires concrete roadmaps to accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels and the protection of nature. We got neither. And this happened despite a committed, science-aligned and astute Brasilian Presidency of the COP. At this critical juncture of imminent risks, false hope is the last thing the world needs now. Within just 5-10 years we are likely to breach 1.5°C, entering the terrain of danger, both for billions of people affected by rising weather extremes, and of the risk of crossing tipping points, among them, Earth's richest biomes - the Amazon and tropical coral reef systems. Unfortunately, COP30 continues to add to the legacy since the Paris Agreement; to spread false hope. What the world needs is real delivery, with a credible plan and set of policies and regulations to achieve it, starting by phasing-out fossil-fuels in an accelerated, orderly and just way. This would be real hope."

Ottmar Edenhofer, climate economist and PIK Director:

“The COP30 declaration cannot be characterised as groundbreaking. The states are promising too little, and they are not keeping their promises. The clear messages from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are obviously not being sufficiently heard. And once more, the COP28 pledge of “transitioning away from fossil fuels” has not been further developed. The COP could develop into a more innovative platform for designing policy initiatives. In Belém, it was discussed how air and sea transport could be taxed. The debate on climate tariffs was controversial, but helped to make the connection between climate and trade clear. A major initiative to finance global rainforest protection has been launched, and minilateral agreements between China and the EU to finance emission reductions emerge as an option for the future. Even if many of these projects are currently still fraught with problems: the COP should strengthen its profile in terms of launching and evaluating promising climate action initiatives”