Lacklustre new 2035 climate targets barely make a dent in temperature projections

While the NDCs have slightly bent the needle, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C. Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by about 15 percent compared with 2019 levels – although the US withdrawal will change these figures. These reductions are far below the 35 percent and 55 percent needed in 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively.

The report, led by the UN Environment Programme, also assesses the effects that only current policies would have to reduce temperatures, and has revised this estimate down from 3.1°C to 2.8°C.

The report finds that a higher temporary exceedance of 1.5°C is now very likely. Bringing temperatures back to this level after exceedance will require faster and additional reductions of greenhouse gases and great reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies.

An implementation gap

The report finds that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs by 30 September 2025. In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets.

Emissions in 2030 would have to fall 25 percent from 2019 levels for 2°C pathways, and 40 percent for 1.5°C pathways – with only five years left to achieve this goal.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continued to increase last year, reaching a record high of 57.7 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024. Over half of this increase was due to deforestation and forest degradation emissions, in part due to extreme climate conditions. However, emissions from fossil fuel sources – which account for about three quarters of the total – also grew substantially in 2024 at a rate of 1.4%.

Renewable energy deployments and climate policies avoided even higher emissions growth in 2024. This has helped an increasing number of countries to reach peak emissions and start decarbonising. The European Union reduced emissions by 2.1% in 2024. However, growth in other countries (such as India: +3.6%, China: +0.56% and the Russian Federation: +2.3%) continued to outweigh reductions in 2024.

The report looks at a "rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario, which is designed to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66 percent chance, and return to 1.5°C by 2100. Under this scenario, 2030 emissions would have to fall by 26 percent and 2035 emissions by 46 percent compared with 2019 levels.