Greater than 50% chance of global warming exceeding 3°C by 2100


The work, which is linked to the ‘Climate Action Tracker’, points out that even if Nations go further than they did in Copenhagen and agree to halve emissions by 2050, there would still be about a 50% chance that warming exceeds 2°C and it would almost certainly exceed 1.5°C, which is the target set by the Small Island States and Least Developed countries. This is a stark finding given that it is probable that nations will only meet the lower ends of their emissions pledges.

“There is a multibillion tonne gap between where emissions will be in 2020 and where they need to be have a chance to limit warming to 2°C or below” said Joeri Rogelj of PIK. The gap is 4-8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions (GtCO2-eq) in 2020 above the level of 40-44 GtCO2-eq to which emissions would need to be reduced to have a good chance at limiting warming to 2oC or below.

The research shows that there are a number of loopholes in current pledges of developed countries. For instance, under current rules, nations can bank an estimated 12 GtCO2-eq in surplus allowances to use after 2012. In addition credits for land-use activities currently on the table lead to further allowances of up to 1 GtCO2 per year by 2020.

Speaking at the side event taking place in Bonn, Niklas Höhne of Ecofys will say: “Proposals by developing countries can be substantial. In total, they could get about halfway towards the 15% to 30% range below business as usual in 2020 as suggested by the IPCC. All major developing countries have quantitative targets. China’s and India’s domestic actions are probably more ambitious than their targets submitted to the Copenhagen Accord. Brazil and Indonesia have ambitious plans to reduce emissions from deforestation. Mexico, South Korea and South Africa want to stop emissions growth by 2020.”

Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics will set out at the event that a number of options exist for closing the gap in 2020 which could be adopted in Cancun.

  1. Developed countries significantly increasing their ambition levels
  2. Developing countries increasing ambition levels and securing funding for mitigation programmes
  3. Reducing or eliminating the banking of surplus allowances
  4. A strict limit to the use of emissions credits and adopting forestry accounting rules that minimize weakening of reduction targets for industrial and agricultural sources.
  5. Halting deforestation by 2020
  6. Reducing international aviation and marine (shipping) CO2 emissions which are currently uncontrolled and expected to grow fast.

The UNFCCC side event “Analyzing Copenhagen: 3.5°C, 2°C or 1.5°C?”, takes place between 1800-1930hrs  on Wednesday, 2 June in the Tram Room of the Ministry of Transport building.

Please contact Kirsten Macey if you would like to attend:
Tel. +49 151 2221251

Web sites:

Ecofys, Climate Analytics and PIK are research organizations that specialize in energy and climate-related issues.

The web-based based climate policy assessment system ´Climate Action Tracker´ was developed by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It provides a picture of each country’s proposed commitments and actions and how these contribute to total greenhouse gas emission reductions globally. It has been online since November 2009.