The work presented in EGU2021’s online PICO session focuses on the application of causal discovery on a 2D map. “Causal maps” are introduced and show how causal discovery can identify and remove spurious links on a 2-dimentional map, thus improving the concept of correlation maps. Here, causal maps are applied to study the effect of the first mode of maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between tropical convective activity and mid-latitude circulation on surface and tropospheric circulation in the Norther Hemisphere during boreal summer. The two-way causal link between ISM convective activity and a mid-latitude wave pattern is analysed in its regional spatial characteristics. Finally, causal maps obtained from seasonal forecast data by ECMWF show quantitatively consistent results.
Giorgia di Capua is member of the ESMO-Working Group. She has recently completed her doctoral research on "The Indian summer monsoon and its interaction with the mid-latitude circulation"
Source: https://www.egu.eu/awards-medals/ospp-award/2021/giorgia-di-capua/
