Authors marked in bold are EPICC Scientists.


  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., Kurths, J., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. Physics Reports. [In press] DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2020.09.005
  • Gleixner, S., Demissie, T. and Diro, G. (2020). Did ERA5 Improve Temperature and Precipitation Reanalysis over East Africa?. Atmosphere, 11(9), p.996. DOI: 10.3390/atmos11090996
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Büntgen, U. and Schellnhuber, H. J. Setting the tree-ring record straight. Climate Dynamics. (2020). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05433-w
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Havlin S. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. [Submitted] arXiv:1910.14642
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Liu, Y., Ali Saberi, A., Kurths, J., and Nagler, J. (2020). Universal Gap Scaling in Percolation, Nature Physics, 1-7. DOI: 10.1038/s41567-019-0783-2
  • Raghunathan, M., George, N., Unni, V., Midhun, P., Reeja, K. and Sujith, R. (2020). Multifractal analysis of flame dynamics during transition to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent combustor. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 888. DOI: 10.1017/jfm.2020.19
  • Meng, J., Fan, J., Ludescher, J., Agarwal, A., Chen, X., Bunde, A., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. (2019). Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(1), pp.177-183. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1917007117
  • Manoj, K., Pawar, S., Dange, S., Mondal, S., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Synchronization route to weak chimera in four candle-flame oscillators. Physical Review E, 100(6). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.100.062204
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Two Branches of Indian Summer Monsoon under Climate Change: Dynamics of Outgoing Longwave Radiation. [online] American Geophysical Union, AGU 100, 551213. Abstract. Available at:
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., and Havlin, S. (2019). Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 12,476–12,485. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084649
  • Fan, J., Zhou, D., Shekhtman, L., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Marzocchi, W., Ashkenazy, Y. and Havlin, S. (2019). Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Physical Review E, 99(4). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210
  • Unni, V., Gopalakrishnan, E., Syamkumar, K., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Interplay between random fluctuations and rate dependent phenomena at slow passage to limit-cycle oscillations in a bistable thermoacoustic system. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29(3), p. 031102. DOI: 10.1063/1.5088943 
  • Fan, J., Meng, J. and Saberi, A. (2019). Percolation framework of the Earth's topography. Physical Review E, 99(2). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.022304
  • Ludescher, J., Yuan, N. and Bunde, A. (2018). Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), pp.237-244. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4579-3
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. (2018). Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(52), pp.E12128-E12134. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811068115


Hydrology & Water Resources

  • Mishra, V., Shah, H., Rivas López, M. d. R., Lobanova, A., Krysanova, V. (in press). Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected change of mean and high flow in Godavari River basin? Climatic Change.
  • Zipper, S., Jaramillo, F., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., Häyhä, T., Crépin, A., Fetzer, I., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Matthews, N., Ricaurte‐Villota, C., Kummu, M., Wada, Y. and Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth's Future, 8(2). DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001377
  • Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F. and Felipe-Obando, O. (2019). Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day. Hydrological Sciences Journal, pp.1-16. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1649411



  • Dhamija, V., Shukla, R., Gornott, C. and Joshi, P. (2020). Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India. Sustainability, 12(19), p.8256. DOI: 10.3390/su12198256
  • Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C. (2020). Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, 108154. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108154
  • Schauberger, B., Jägermeyr, J., Gornott C. (2020) A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources. European Journal of Agronomy, 120, 126153. DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2020.126153
  • Shukla, R., Agarwal, A., Gornott, C., Sachdeva, K. and Joshi, P. (2019). Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya. Scientific Reports, 9(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56931-9
  • Brüssow, K., Gornott, C., Faße, A. and Grote, U. (2019). The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic Change, 157(3-4), pp.545-563. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9
  • Graef, F., Mutabazi, K., Sieber, S., Asch, F., Makoko, B., Bonatti, M., Brüntrup, M., Gornott, C., Herrmann, L., Herrmann, R., Kaburire, L., Kahimba, F., Kimaro, A., Kuntosch, A., König, H., Lagwen, P., Lana, M., Lambert, C., Levy, C., Löhr, K., Maeda, C., Mbwana, H., Mchau, D., Mnimbo, M., Munder, S., Mwinuka, L., Ngwenya, P., Nickson, E., Nkonya, E., Saidia, P., Schäfer, M., Schindler, J., Silayo, V., Uckert, G., Wambura, J. and William, L. (2018). Multi-Disciplinary North-South Collaboration in Participatory Action Research on Food Value Chains: a German-Tanzanian Case Study on Perceptions, Experiences and Challenges. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(4), pp.359-378. DOI: 10.1007/s11213-018-9458-7
  •  Lana, M., Vasconcelos, A., Gornott, C., Schaffert, A., Bonatti, M., Volk, J., Graef, F., Kersebaum, K. and Sieber, S. (2017). Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in semi-arid Tanzania?. Food Security, 10(4), pp.897-910. DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0742-7   




Cross-Sectoral Capacity Building and International Mainstreaming

  • Hoffmann, R. (in press). Umwelt, Klima und Bevölkerung. In H. Budliger (Ed.), Demografischer Wandel und Wirtschaft. Berlin: Springer Gabler.
  • Büntgen, U., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Churakova, O. V., Gennaretti, F., Crivellaro, A., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Klippel, L., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Ljungqvist, F. C., Ludescher, J., McCormick, M., Myglan, V. S., Nicolussi, K., Piermattei, A., Oppenheimer, C., Reinig, F., Sigl, M., Vaganov, E. A., Esper, J. (in press). Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history. Dendrochronologia
  • Zarei, A., Asadi, E., Ebrahimi, A., Jafari, M., Malekianc, A., Nasrabadi, H. M., Chemura, A., Maskell, G. M. (2020). Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios. Ecological Indicators, 119, 106858. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106858
  • Vinke, K., Gabrysch, S., Paoletti, E., Rockström, J., Schellnhuber, H. 2020. Corona and the Climate: a comparison of two emergencies. Global Sustainability, [online] 3, pp.1-7. DOI: 10.1017/sus.2020.20
  • Chemura A., Schauberger B., Gornott C. 2020. Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana. PLoS ONE,15(6): e0229881. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229881
  • Chemura, A., Rwasoka, D., Mutanga, O., Dube, T. and Mushore, T. 2020. The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 18, p.100292. DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100292
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Marzocchi, W., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Havlin, S. and Ashkenazy, Y. 2020. Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances. Physical Review Research, 2(1). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.013264
  • Schellnhuber, H. and Vinke, K. (2020). Corona und Klima: Auf der Suche nach der verlorenen Zeit. [online] Internationale Politik. Available at:
  • Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B., Graedel, T. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0462-4
  • Lade, S., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S., Donges, J., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K. and Rockström, J. (2019). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability, 3(2), pp.119-128. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4
  • Hoff, H., Alrahaife, S., El Hajj, R., Lohr, K., Mengoub, F., Farajalla, N., Fritzsche, K., Jobbins, G., Özerol, G., Schultz, R. and Ulrich, A. (2019). A Nexus Approach for the MENA Region—From Concept to Knowledge to Action. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7. DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00048
  • Schmidt-Traub, G., Hoff, H. and Bernlöhr, M. (2019). SDSN Policy Brief: International spillovers and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Measuring how a country’s progress towards the SDGs is affected by actions in other countries. [online] Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Available at:
  • Bleischwitz, R., Spataru, C., VanDeveer, S., Obersteiner, M., van der Voet, E., Johnson, C., Andrews-Speed, P., Boersma, T., Hoff, H. and van Vuuren, D. (2018). Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 1(12), pp.737-743. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0173-2
  • Liu, J., Hull, V., Godfray, H., Tilman, D., Gleick, P., Hoff, H., Pahl-Wostl, C., Xu, Z., Chung, M., Sun, J. and Li, S. (2018). Nexus approaches to global sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1(9), pp.466-476. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0135-8