Publications

Reviewed Journal Articles:

• E. Kriegler. J. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106(13): 5041-5046. 
• H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer (2009) Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty. Energy Economics 31(1): S50-61.
• D. Patino-Echeverri, P. Fischbeck, E. Kriegler (2009) The economic and environmental costs of regulatory uncertainty for coal-fired power plants. Environmental Science & Technology 43(3): 578-584.
• E. Kriegler (2009) Updating under unknown unknowns: An open version of Bayes' rule. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 50(4): 583-596.
  
• H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler (2008) Bayesian learning for a class of priors with prescribed marginals. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 49: 212-233.
• T. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2008) Tipping element's in the earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105: 1786-1793.
• E. Kriegler (2007) On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate sytem? Environmental Research Letters 2, 011001.
• E. Kriegler, H. Held (2005) Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39: 185-209 (pre-press version of the paper).
• O. Edenhofer, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler (2005)  The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND. Ecological Economics 54: 277-292.
• E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2004)  Sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors for the 21st century. Climatic Change 66: 345-387 (pre-press version of the paper).
  

Journal Articles submitted and in preparation:

• M. Schmidt, A. Lorenz, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2010) Challenges for climate targets under uncertainty, submitted.
• A. Lorenz, M. Schmidt, E. Kriegler, H. Held (2010) Anticipating climate threshold damages, submitted.
  
• E. Kriegler (2010) Belief function representation of the combined probability box and atomic lower probability model, submitted.
• V. Schweizer, E. Kriegler (2010) Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis to Improve Future Emissions Scenarios, in preparation.
  

Conference Papers:

• E. Kriegler (2007). Updating and testing beliefs: An open version of Bayes' rule. In: G. de Cooman, J. Vejnarova, M. Zaffalon (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA'07), pp. 271-280. 
• N. Bauer, O. Edenhofer, H. Held, E. Kriegler (2005) Uncertainty of the role of carbon capturing and sequestration within climate change mitigation strategies. In: E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith und C.F. Gilboy (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme, Elsevier Science. 
• E. Kriegler, H. Held (2003) Climate projections for the 21st century using random sets. In: J.M. Bernard, T. Seidenfeld, M. Zaffalon (Eds.) Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA'03), pp. 345-360. Published by Carleton Scientific, Proceedings in Informatics
• E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2002) Global and Annex I emissions corridors for the 21st century. In: A.E. Rizzoli, A.J. Jakeman (Eds.), Integrated Assessment and Decision Support - Proceedings of the 1st biennal meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS 2002), Vol. 3, pp. 151-156
  

Other:

• E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner (2007) Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences. In J. Kropp, J. Scheffran (eds): Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, Nova Science Publ. Inc., New York, pp. 3-42.
• K. Tanaka, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007) Aggregated carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate model (ACC2). Reports on Earth System Science No. 40, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. 
• E. Kriegler (2005) Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change. Ph.D. thesis, University of Potsdam, 1-258 p.
• O. Edenhofer, E. Kriegler, N. Bauer (2002) Szenarien zum Umbau des Energiesystems (Scenarios for a transition of the energy system), External report to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), in German. Partly published in: WBGU (2003) World in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chapter 4.5.1, Earthscan, London.