Kilian Kuhla is a postdoctoral researcher in Research Department 3 – Transformation Pathways at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). His work focuses on climate impact and socio-economic system modeling, particularly the risks that climate extremes and geopolitical shocks pose to global food security and trade. With a background in physics, he develops and applies agent-based models to simulate disruptions in agricultural and economic trade networks. He also works on the effectiveness of climate insurance schemes. Kilian co-supervises Master’s and PhD students and has contributed to national, European, and US-American research initiatives. His current project – funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) – aims to assess inter- and intra-regional food inequalities as well as short-term systemic risks to the world food system in the 21st century.
He is member of the working group Event-based Modeling of Economic Impacts of Climate Change. and a co-developer of the agent-based agricultural market model Agrimate. Furthermore, he has partner projects with Numerical analysis of global economic impacts and he co-developed loss-propagation model Acclimate.
Department
Working Group
Contact
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
- since 2022
- Postdoctoral researcher
- at Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2021 - 2022
- Research assistant
- with Dr. Christian Otto
- at Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2017 - 2022
- PhD student
- with Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann
- at Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2017 - 2021
- PhD scholarship
- awarded by Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes
- 2016 - 2017
- Research assistant
- with Dr. Katja Frieler
- at Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2010-2016
- Studies of physics
- at Technical University of Berlin, Germany
2026
10. K. Kuhla, M. Goldrina, M. J. Puma, Y. Kinkel, C. Otto.
Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change, and risks for crop prices and regional consumption
Environmental Research Letters 21 194028 (2026) 10.1088/1748-9326/aeae54
2025
9. K. Kuhla, P. Kubiczek, C. Otto.
Understanding agricultural market dynamics in times of crisis: The dynamic agent-based network model Agrimate
Ecological Economics 231 (2025). 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108546
2024
8. K. Kuhla, M.J. Puma, C. Otto.
International cooperation was key to stabilize wheat prices after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Communications Earth Environment 5, 481 (2024). 10.1038/s43247-024-01638-7
2023
7. R. Middelanis, S. N. Willner, K. Kuhla, L. Quante, C. Otto, A. Levermann.
Stressed economies respond more strongly to climate extremes
Environmental Research Letters 18 (2023). 10.1088/1748-9326/acec5e
6. K. Kuhla, S. N. Willner, C. Otto, A. Levermann.
Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 151 (2023). 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104663
5. C. Otto*, K. Kuhla*, T. Geiger, J. Schewe, K. Frieler * with equal contribution.
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Science Advances 9 (2023). 10.1126/sciadv.add6616
2021
4. R. Middelanis, S.N. Willner, C. Otto, K. Kuhla, L. Quante, A. Levermann.
Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy
Environmental Research Letters 16 (2021). 10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0
3. K. Kuhla, S.N. Willner, C. Otto, T. Geiger, A. Levermann.
Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes
Environmental Research Letters 16 (2021). 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932
2. K. Kuhla, S.N. Willner, C. Otto, L. Wenz, A. Levermann.
Future heat stress to reduce people's purchasing power
PLoS ONE 16(6) (2021). 10.1371/journal.pone.0251210
2020
1. L. Wenz, A. Levermann, S.N. Willner, C. Otto, K. Kuhla
Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development
PLoS ONE 15 (2020). 10.1371/journal.pone.0237500
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Doctoral Dissertation
K. Kuhla
Impact, distribution, and adaptation – how weather extremes threaten the economic network
[University Potsdam] (2022). 10.25932/publishup-55266
Project lead of DFG-funded CaTFoodS project
Co-supervisor of PhD project of Yann Kinkel
Scientific advisor of PhD project of Nour Bou Salman
K. Kuhla, M. J. Puma, J. Jägermeyr, C. Otto.
Climate-driven crop production volatility amplifies food price and consumption risks
(submitted to PNAS) 10.31220/agriRxiv.2026.00505
C. J. Mora, K. Kuhla, P. Romanovska, M. Svanidze, E. Vogel, L. V. Alexander, A. Malik, M. O. Grant, C. Gornott, C. Otto, and S. Undorf
Attributing global food security impacts to anthropogenic climate change and trade policy: The 2010 Russian wheat failure
(under review in Environmental Research Letters)
