The countries of the Sahel are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts on human security, particularly food security and conflict potential. Based on weather data from satellites and weather stations on the ground as well as climate change projections, PIK will identify risks for water supply and low crop production as well as failures. Therefore, PIK will use its impact models to identify risks for potential yield losses and failures and thus to reduced food availability and food insecurity.
This component will provide yield forecasts one or two months prior to the harvest. Based on the results, farmers – informed by ministries and farmers’ associations – will be able to adjust their agronomic management and thus, avert crop failures and increase farmers’ capacity to cope with climate change risks.
This will allow the identification of regions that will be high in crop production vs. poor production areas, as well as regions likely to become resource depleted vs. resource rich, which in turn give indication of potential conflict hot spots. However, research in the Sahel shows that the relationship between climate change, migration and conflict is very complex. Therefore, it is necessary to study government and governance structures regarding their capacity for risk assessment and risk management. This will be done on a case study basis, in which the inter-linkages between climate impacts on livelihoods, governance, inequality and resulting conflict potential can be explored.
Early warning systems can support governments in their decision making to reduce the risks of climate and weather-induced impacts on security aspects such as food insecurity, conflicts and migration. They furthermore could give an evidence-based assessment of the climate change related security risks for foreign policy formation.
