Towards a Global Risks and Foresight Assessment on the Security Implications of Climate Change

The project pioneers a mixed methods approach that combines cross-sectoral climate impact modelling and data analysis with stakeholder-focused methods (interviews, consultations, scenario codevelopment). To help facilitate UN uptake, the consortium will seek close coordination with the UN Climate Security Mechanism, so that the assessment methods correspond to UN needs as they evolve and can help inform UN efforts such as the envisaged Horn of Africa climate risk assessment. The project builds on three pillars to support a future risk and foresight assessments by the UN: ¿ An innovative and replicable climate-security risk assessment approach that identifies both direct and indirect risks related to climate change, as well as possible entry points for addressing climate-security risks by combining a range of qualitative and quantitative methods. ¿ A series of pilot assessments that will not only generate new insights into priority regions and thematic areas of the climate-security nexus, but also serve as a test and proof of concept of the approach being developed. ¿ Broad outreach and stakeholder engagement to support the other pillars and disseminate the results of the pilot assessments, as well as relevant learnings to the climate-security risk assessment community. This pillar will include two syntheses on the state of knowledge regarding climate-related security risks, one early into the project in support of the German UNSC presidency in July 2020 and one at the end of the project.


Apr 06, 2020 until Apr 30, 2023

Funding Agency

Auswärtiges Amt


Jacob Schewe