1.5°C pathways can still be achieved, combining fairness and global climate protection
12/02/2023 - Global warming can still be limited to 1.5°C by 2100 while ensuring that the poor are not hit hardest by climate policies and climate impacts. This is achieved by immediately introducing broad carbon pricing together with re-distributive policies using carbon pricing revenues and further measures to reduce energy consumption, accelerate technological transitions, and transform the land sector. The results from multiple integrated assessment models (IAMs) show that a combination of producer and consumer-oriented measures can work together to rapidly reduce emissions. The comprehensive results on 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement are synthesised in a report of the European project NAVIGATE. The new report presented at COP28 provides a blueprint for achieving a rapid, fair and efficient transformation to net zero emissions.
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PIK expertise at COP 28 in Dubai
30/11/2023 - The major review of all climate policy measures planned to date and the organisation of the climate fund are among the central topics of the 28th UN World Climate Conference in Dubai. From 30 November to 12 December, delegates from the UN countries will discuss further steps, including the climate fund agreed at COP27, which is intended to help poorer countries cope with the damage caused by climate change. Progress on the climate policy goals and measures agreed in the Paris Agreement will also be reviewed as part of the "Global Stocktake". More than 70,000 people from all over the world are taking part in the conference, including experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
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Future floods: Global warming intensifies heavy rain – even more than expected
11/27/2023 - The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases exponentially with global warming, a new study finds. The analysis by researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that state-of-the-art climate models significantly underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming – meaning that extreme rainfall could increase quicker than climate models suggest.
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A fifth higher: Tropical cyclones substantially raise the Social Cost of Carbon
11/23/2023 - Extreme events like tropical cyclones have immediate impacts, but also long-term implications for societies. A new study published in the journal Nature Communications now finds: Accounting for the long-term impacts of these storms raises the global Social Cost of Carbon by more than 20 percent, compared to the estimates currently used for policy evaluations. This increase is mainly driven by the projected rise of tropical-cyclone damages to the major economies of India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan under global warming.
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More new fossil gas heating systems, only tentative progress: energy transition update
11/22/2023 - Reduced fossil fuel consumption due to the energy crisis, tentative positive signs in the expansion of renewable energy capacities, electric cars and heat pumps – but all this is not happening fast enough, according to new figures from the Ariadne Transformation Tracker. Moreover, the German energy transition is not yet on track when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels in the heating and transport sectors. Instead of the necessary decline, there has been a clear increase in the sale of new cars with combustion engines and new gas heating systems compared to the previous year.
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Highly Cited: PIK scientists among top 1% of the world's most cited researchers
11/15/2023 – For the sixth year in a row, numerous researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are among the top 1 percent of the renowned “Highly Cited Researchers” worldwide. The influential ranking, published by Clarivate Analytics' science platform Web of Science, is based on the number of times scientists' papers are cited by other researchers – a very important indicator of scientific relevance. The 2023 edition includes eight PIK researchers from different research departments, also PIK Director Johan Rockström.
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Land taxation can reduce wealth inequality
11/14/2023 - Taxing land instead of capital could reduce the widening gap between rich and poor in societies, finds a new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). A team of scientists shows that, in a world of rising inequality, shifting the tax burden away from capital to land taxation could restore balance and promote economic growth. Especially people with little or no wealth could benefit from land taxes, for example in the form of less rapidly rising housing costs. The few municipalities, that have implemented land rent taxation so far, have used it to finance public transport, among other infrastructure investments.
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In Memory of Saleemul Huq
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK is deeply saddened by the loss of Professor Saleemul Huq, who passed away on the 28 October 2023.
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Novel perspectives on cross-border cascading climate change impacts and systemic risks
10/27/2023 – Transitioning towards climate-adaptive and resilient societies – that was the overarching aim of the conference “Cross-border climate change impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond” at Potsdam-Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK). For three days in mid-October, 150 scientists from all over the world came together across disciplines to better understand and respond to the emerging topic of cross-border climate impacts and risks.
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How changes in the Arctic shape global weather patterns
10/26/2023 – Weather instabilities in the Arctic and changes in air temperature in distant regions such as California and Southwest China are linked, an international team of researchers reveals. Their study has been published in Nature Communications. The scientists also demonstrate that increased day-to-day irregularities in Arctic sea ice cover are caused by the Arctic’s rapid sea ice decline.
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2023 year of record extremes: new report
10/24/2023 – In 2023, anomalies like high temperatures, ocean-warming and more frequent wild fire events have reached unprecedented records until now, shows a new report by an international team of researchers, among them Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The scientists find that these records weaken the Earth’s vital signs and warn that the increasingly frequent occurrences of climate-related could possibly endanger life on Earth by the end of this century if business is continued as usual.
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More interdisciplinary science: Green light for additional institutional funding of PIK
10/19/2023 - From interdisciplinary basic research to scientific policy advice: the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has received the green light from the committee of the Joint Science Conference (Gemeinsame Wissenschaftskonferenz, GWK) of the German federal and state governments for its plans to expand the institute. The additional institutional funding will strengthen its expertise topics by securing investment for three cutting edge and so far little-researched topics. At the same time, the integration of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) will establish a policy research hub at the interface between research and policy from 2025 onward.
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Timely reversal of global warming could prevent Greenland ice sheet tipping
10/18/2023 - The Greenland ice sheet is likely to be more resistant to global warming than previously thought, finds a new study published in the scientific journal Nature. An international team of scientists shows that even if critical temperature thresholds are temporarily crossed by up to 6.5 degrees Celsius until 2100, a possible tipping of the ice sheet and therefore drastic sea level rise over hundreds of thousands of years could be prevented. To achieve this, measures to reduce greenhouse gases would have to be taken as quickly as possible following the critical rise in temperature, so that the temperature can be stabilized at no more than 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the long term.
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Diabetes, dementia, depression: Adapting fuel taxes could benefit people’s health
10/13/2023 - The health benefits from walking and cycling are so significant that they should be included in fuel tax design, shows of a new study published in the journal Economica. Optimal fuel tax rates would increase by 44% in the US and by 38% in the UK if the costs for the health system that arise from too little exercise were taken into account. The revenue could be used for low-carbon transport or to compensate affected households to build support for sustainable transport.
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Alexander Popp appointed to the new Lancet Commission on Prevention of Viral Spillover
10/12/2023 - Alexander Popp, research group leader on Land-Use Management at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), has been appointed as a Commissioner to the newly established Lancet–PPATS Commission on Prevention of Viral Spillover. The Commission strives to reduce risk of future pandemics while promoting a healthier, more sustainable and more equitable future. The new Commission kicks off its work on 13 October 2023.
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Stuck to the subway: less privileged people have fewer possibilities to adapt their mobility behaviour to heat
10/10/2023 - Extreme heat amplifies social inequalities when it comes to subway usage and mobility in big cities, a new study shows. Analyzing the effect of temperature on people’s mobility behavior in New York City, researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) find that especially in low-income areas there are little possibilities for subway users to adapt to and mitigate heat by reducing mobility. This could lead to additional heat stress and increase health risks.
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“Shaping European environmental policy”: Ottmar Edenhofer on ENDS Europe Impact List
10/09/2023 - Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), is one of the 30 EU politicians and professionals who have played a significant role in shaping the European environmental policy over the past two years. For the first time, ENDS Europe, a European environmental policy news service, has compiled a list of the stakeholders who shape EU environmental policy through their important work.
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A destabilizing link: Amazon rainforest degradation and deforestation endanger the South American monsoon
10/04/2023 - The impacts of global warming, deforestation and intensified land use are pushing the South American monsoon towards a critical destabilization point, a new study published in the journal Science Advances shows. Once crossed, substantially less rainfall is to be expected in large parts of the South American continent. In turn, this would have major implications for the stability of the Amazon rainforest, as even areas not yet directly affected by land use change would be at risk of dieback.
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Remembering Vladimir Petoukhov
10/04/2023 - The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK is grieving Vladimir Petoukhov, a renowned climate scientist and pioneer of Russian climate modeling, who has passed away on 4 September 2023.
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New project will make PIK model REMIND-MAgPIE more accessible and easier to use
10/04/2023 - Less barriers, more open access and a vibrant user community - a new Research Software Engineering project at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) will increase the accessibility of the REMIND-MAgPIE framework to third-party users. The new project is going to start in January 2024 and will be funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). REMIND-MAgPIE is an integrated assessment modelling framework used by scientists worldwide in order to quantify the complex dynamics within and between the energy, land-use, water, economy and climate systems.
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PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer appointed to the Forum Zukunftsstrategie
09/21/2023 - Climate economist Ottmar Edenhofer has been appointed to the Forum #Zukunftsstrategie. The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) is one of 21 experts from business, science and civil society who will advise the Federal Government on the implementation of the “Zukunftsstrategie” (Strategy for the Future). The new body began its work at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) on 21 September 2023.
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Getting expectations right more relevant than getting prices right: Credibility is key for policies to achieve net zero targets
09/18/2023 - For net-zero policies to be successful, it is key that they succeed in shaping the expectations of private investors that long-term targets are firm. This is the result of new research by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Resources for the Future and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published today in Nature Climate Change.
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More economic struggle, less care about the environment
09/15/2023 - When international trade hurts people economically, they care less about environmental issues, finds a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. An international team of scientists shows that economic shocks drive trade-exposed groups more doubtful towards climate change, leading to a withdrawing support for sustainable and green policies.
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A full picture of planetary resilience: All boundaries mapped out, six of nine crossed
09/13/2023 - For the first time, an international team of scientists is able to provide a detailed outline of planetary resilience by mapping out all nine boundary processes that define a safe operating space for humanity. From global warming to the biosphere and deforestation, from pollutants & plastic to nitrogen cycles and freshwater: Six of nine planetary boundaries are being transgressed, while pressure in all those boundary processes is increasing, cutting-edge research published in the journal Science Advances shows.
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Stability inspection for West Antarctica: marine ice sheet not destabilized yet, but possibly on tipping path
09/07/2023 - Antarctica’s vast ice masses seem far away, yet they store enough water to raise global sea levels by several meters. A team of experts from European research institutes has now provided the first systematic stability inspection of the ice sheet’s current state. Their diagnosis: While they found no indication of irreversible, self-reinforcing retreat of the ice sheet in West Antarctica yet, global warming to date could already be enough to trigger the slow but certain loss of ice over the next hundreds to thousands of years.
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On the DWD's Summer Report 2023: In the midst of climate change
08/30/2023 - The German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) has presented its 2023 summer report. PIK researcher Fred Hattermann comments: "This year's precipitation cannot compensate for the precipitation deficit that has accumulated over the past years."
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Climate extremes hit stressed economies even harder
08/30/2023 - Economies already under stress respond more strongly to weather events like heat waves, river floods and tropical cyclones, a new study shows. A global economic crisis as during the Covid-19 pandemic strongly amplifies the price increases private households experience from the impacts of weather extremes, a team of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) finds. The price impacts tripled in China, doubled in the United States and increased by a third in the European Union.
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Past abrupt changes in North Atlantic Overturning have impacted the climate system across the globe
08/29/2023 - Abrupt climate changes have affected rainfall patterns worldwide in the past, especially in the tropical monsoon region, a new study shows. An international team of scientists used dripstones from globally distributed caves together with model simulations to analyse the global impacts of rapid Northern-Hemisphere temperature increases, the widely studied Dansgaard-Oeschger events, that repeatedly occurred during the last ice age. The comparison of stalagmite and model data shows in unprecedented detail how these abrupt changes and the associated modifications of the Atlantic overturning circulation, AMOC for short, have affected global atmospheric circulation.
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John Schellnhuber new Director General at IIASA
08/02/2023 - PIK Founding Director Hans Joachim (John) Schellnhuber will take over the position of Director General at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg near Vienna on 1 December 2023. His great expertise in the field of climate change has earned him worldwide recognition.
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Amazon in the firetrap: Deforestation and warming lock rainforest in dry and damaged grassland state
07/12/2023 - Global warming and drastic deforestation could dry out the Amazon rainforest faster and enforce the risk of keeping it downright fire-trapped. A new study published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment shows: Fire can be a decisive factor for a potential tipping of the Amazon rainforest, as it is capable of locking large parts of the Amazon in a treeless state. While naturally not occurring in rainforests, fire can play an increasing role once the forest is damaged, thinned or completely lost, up to a status where fire is the dominating driver of the ecosystem.
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